Best NHL Bets (Oct. 19): Expect a close game when Rangers visit Maple Leafs

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps the best bets for Saturday’s 13-game NHL slate.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-115) at Ottawa Senators (-105)

There’s a lot of uncertainty around this game. Will Linus Ullmark be starting, backing up Anton Forsberg, or sitting out on Saturday? It makes a big difference to the betting market.

If Ullmark does start, the Senators aren’t a team I’d want to fade at -115 odds. However, I’m willing to take that chance since the team has expressed a desire to handle Ullmark’s situation cautiously.

The Lightning have been controlling play against teams far better than the Senators. Plus, Ottawa is without defensive stalwart Artem Zub, and only five teams have allowed more shots per 60 minutes. Tampa Bay should be a much bigger favorite if Ullmark sits, but the opposite could be true if Andrei Vasilevskiy is out, as Jonas Johansson is a big downgrade from one of the best to ever play the position.

That said, I’m betting Vasilevskiy will be in goal. The Lightning have back-to-back games on Monday and Tuesday, and head coach Jon Cooper can’t afford to burn out his starter, especially this early in the season. So, I doubt Vasilevskiy will play both games.

Pick: Lightning Moneyline -115 at Sports Interaction

New York Rangers (+105) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-125)

The knock on last season’s Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers was their poor five-on-five numbers, finishing in the bottom half for shot attempts and expected goals percentage. Given their 22nd-place ranking in both categories from 2021-22 to 2022-23, it wasn’t a huge surprise. This season, though, they’re already fifth in expected goals percentage, according to Natural Stat Trick. 

I was high on the Rangers before the season, even with New Jersey and Carolina favored to surpass them in the standings. I don’t see much value in betting against them now. In fact, it’s tempting to bet on New York here because they’re usually a big moneyline favorite.

Toronto is looking strong, but I had New York pegged to win the Eastern Conference, and if anything, I’ve only started to feel more confident about that prediction. Igor Shesterkin has solid numbers against the Maple Leafs with a 5-2-2 record, a 2.64 GAA, and a .918 save percentage. 

On the flip side, Anthony Stolarz, who I had cautious optimism for heading into the season, is 2-1 with a .940 save percentage and will likely be back in net with Joseph Woll still recovering from groin tightness. This matchup should be one of Saturday’s best, and I like the +333 odds for it to go to overtime.

Pick: Tie +333 at Sports Interaction

Boston Bruins (-135) at Utah Hockey Club (+115)

Backup goalie Joonas Korpisalo gave the Boston Bruins a big win over the struggling Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday, keeping starter Jeremy Swayman fresh for Saturday’s game in Utah. While some fans might lean toward the under with Swayman in net, both teams rank in the top 10 in goals for and against per 60 minutes, so I’m not expecting a low-scoring grind.

Utah may have been shut out in one game, but they’ve averaged four goals per game, and the Bruins aren’t far behind. Both teams are also allowing over 3.5 goals per 60 minutes. Sure, Swayman could end up making a lot of saves, but the Bruins aren’t the defensive powerhouse they once were, and Utah’s goaltending hasn’t been good. 

Boston and Utah are among the bottom 10 in expected goals against, according to Evolving Hockey. With both teams playing such loose defense, this game total feels low for today’s NHL.

Pick: Over 6 +100 at BetVictor