Best NHL player prop bets (Mar. 24): Expect Zuccarello to make an impact versus Stars
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available on Monday night.
Mats Zuccarello Over 0.5 points (-120) at Sports Interaction
The Minnesota Wild have started to stabilize ahead of Monday’s tough matchup versus the Dallas Stars, as they have won three straight and hold a record 6-3-1 over the last 10 games.
With a team total set at 2.5 heavily juiced to the under, oddsmakers aren’t expecting much offensively from the Wild in this matchup. The Wild could have a slightly better chance of a decent offensive night than oddsmakers are expecting though. The Stars have allowed 3.09 expected goals per 60 minutes this month, and are not looking like the complete defensive juggernaut we have been accustomed to seeing.
The right side of the Stars defensive core looks quite concerning, as for a second consecutive season Cody Ceci and Matt Dumba are posting well below average results. Mikko Rantanen has not been a great fit alongside Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson on the top line, as the trio has allowed 3.01 xGA/60, and we are typically used to Hintz’ line dominating defensively.
The Wild’s top line of Zuccarello, Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi had an excellent performance versus the Sabres, combining for two goals and four points. In 275.6 minutes of play this season they have scored 3.70 goals for per 60, which ranks ninth among all offensive lines which have played over 250 minutes together.
The Wild’s power play has succeeded on 29.2% of opportunities over the last 10 games, and Zuccarello garner’s the third most touches on the unit working the left wall.
For a skater in good form playing on the top-line and top powerplay, a price of -120 for Zuccarello to record a point in a manageable matchup looks to hold strong value.
Nick Schmaltz Anytime Goal (+230) at Sports Interaction
The Utah Hockey Club is in desperate need of a win on Monday as they host a struggling Detroit Red Wings team. Utah has been in decent form with a 5-3-2 record over its last 10 games but has still lost significant ground to the red-hot St. Louis Blues in the race for the final playoff spot out West.
Utah’s top line of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Logan Cooley has been one of the hottest lines in the league and has a great opportunity to remain productive in Monday’s matchup. The Red Wings have allowed 3.50 goals per game in March and have given up 3.22 xGA/60 during that span.
Keller, Schmaltz, and Cooley have generated 4.52 goals per 60 this season, ranking fourth among all lines that have played over 250 minutes together. While they aren’t the most dominant trio defensively, all three skaters have tremendous offensive upside.
Schmaltz has recorded six goals in his last 11 matchups and, based on the quality looks he’s getting, should continue scoring at a comparable rate. He leads all Utah skaters, averaging 0.44 expected goals per game during that span, benefitting from playing alongside two excellent playmakers in Keller and Cooley.
Schmaltz was incredibly snake-bitten at the start of the year, not tallying his first goal until November 30. However, he’s shot 13.7% throughout his career and is a highly capable finisher.
At +230, there looks to be value in backing one of the league’s hottest scorers to find the back of the net in a favorable matchup.
As it’s playoff season in most fantasy hockey leagues, I’ll also note that Cooley is available in 55% of Yahoo leagues, while Schmaltz is available in 64%. Utah has four games this week, including Monday and Sunday, where man games can be especially valuable.