Best NHL player prop bets (March. 17): Targeting Tage Thompson

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available on Tuesday night.

Kirill Marchenko Over 0.5 points (-139) at Sports Interaction

We have talked a lot about Kirill Marchenko and the Columbus Blue Jackets’ top line in these pieces this season, and they have been really good to us as oddsmakers continue to struggle to catch up to their dominant play.

We touched on the Blue Jackets’ top line when they faced the New Jersey Devils last Tuesday, and there looks to be value in backing the unit to remain productive in tonight’s rematch.

Whether centered by Adam Fantilli or Sean Monahan, Dmitri Voronkov and Marchenko continue to power arguably the best line in the league. In 347.7 minutes of play with Fantilli, they have outscored opponents 20-7, the second-best actual goal share of any line to spend over 225 minutes together.

While Marchenko and Fantilli recorded a point in last week’s matchup, tonight’s home game should be more favorable, as head coach Dean Evason will have last change. The Devils’ top line of Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Stefan Noesen has the ability to shut down high-powered offensive units, but Columbus’ top unit should not have to spend as much time playing head-to-head against them in this matchup.

Marchenko has put up 62 points in 63 games this season and has recorded at least one point in 66.67% of games played. He’s a quality playmaker with an elite shot, and in his current role, he seems likely to continue producing at the same rate, making -139 a good price to back him recording a single point.

Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+110) at Sports Interaction

The Buffalo Sabres will be without three key forwards when they take on the Boston Bruins Monday night, as Josh Norris, J.J. Peterka, and Jiri Kulich are all sidelined due to injury.

As a result, Thompson will play alongside Jordan Greenway and Alex Tuch at even strength, which actually appears to be beneficial for his shot volume.

Thompson recorded five shots on goal and nine attempts against the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday, the first game since the trio was reunited. In 38.3 minutes together, they have generated 78.4 shot attempts per 60. Tuch and Greenway are strong forecheckers who can both win battles down low and help Thompson get chances to utilize his excellent shooting abilities.

The Bruins have been one of the league’s worst defensive teams this season, and that has remained the case recently. In the 10 games since the 4 Nations Face-Off, Boston has allowed 29.37 shots against per 60 minutes and holds a 3.79 expected goals against per 60.

While Thompson’s shot volume is slightly down over the last 10 games compared to the entirety of the season, his shot attempt rate has actually increased, as he has attempted 21.56 shots per 60.

With Thompson in a highly favorable matchup Monday and playing in a more favorable role for shot volume, a price of +110 for him to record over 3.5 shots on goal looks quite appealing.