Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers: 2023 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Boston Bruins: 1st in Atlantic Division, Presidents’ Trophy, 135 points
Florida Panthers: 2nd Eastern Conference Wild Card, 92 points
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time |
| Monday, April 17 | 1. Florida at Boston | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Wednesday, April 19 | 2. Florida at Boston | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Friday, April 21 | 3. Boston at Florida | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Sunday, April 23 | 4. Boston at Florida | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Wednesday, April 26 | 5. Florida at Boston* | TBD |
| Friday, April 28 | 6. Boston at Florida* | TBD |
| Sunday, April 30 | 7. Florida at Boston | TBD |
The Skinny
Sorry, Panthers fans. Somebody had to face the best regular-season team in NHL history, and you drew the bad end of the straw.
It’s a battle of the past two Presidents’ Trophy winners, but two teams that went in completely different directions. The Bruins started the season hot and managed to maintain that momentum, setting NHL single-season records with record 65 wins and 135 points.
From the get-go, the Bruins had this “Last Dance” energy, especially with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci nearing the ends of their careers. For all we know, this could be it for them, and perhaps the last truly special year for a franchise that was among the best over the past 15 seasons. And if that’s actually the case, they’ve thrown everything at making this work. They’re not going to want that go to waste.
The Panthers squeaked in on the final week of the regular season, fighting back after falling into the bottom 10 in the standings a few months ago. Whether it be inconsistent goaltending, dealing with injuries to key players or a group just struggling to be cohesive, it was far from an ideal campaign for a team that dominated the regular season a year ago.
That being said, the Presidents’ Trophy curse seemed to get at them last year, getting swept in the second round. There’s far less pressure this year, and that could work to their benefit. Especially with the way Alex Lyon has played in net recently, they’ve got nothing to lose, right?
Head to Head
Boston: 2-1-1
Florida: 2-2-0
The Panthers were one of just two teams to figure out the Bruins twice this year – a 5-2 win on Nov. 23 and a 4-3 OT thrillee on Jan. 28. The Bruins outscored the Panthers 17-15 this year, which has to feel like a win for the Panthers, all things considered.
The Panthers used three different goaltenders during the season series, with Alex Lyon making 37 stops in the team’s 4-3 victory. Aleksander Barov led the way with a three-point effort, while Matthew Tkachuk – the team’s MVP – had two assists. It was a big win for the Panthers at the time, who found themselves in 21st place and in danger of falling too deep into the Connor Bedard sweepstakes – even though their pick was headed to Montreal.
Boston kept the Panthers busy, recording at least 30 shots in three of the four meetings. The Bruins were definitely the better team overall in the four matchups, but the fact that the Panthers kept the series as interesting as it was should give them some much-needed confidence.
Top Five Scorers
Boston
David Pastrnak, 113 points
Brad Marchand, 67 points
Patrice Bergeron, 58 points
Pavel Zacha, 57 points
David Krejci, 56 points
Florida
Matthew Tkachuk, 109 points
Aleksander Barkov, 78 points
Carter Verhaeghe, 73 points
Brandon Montour, 73 points
Sam Reinhart, 67 points
X-Factor
The Panthers have been flying high for a few weeks now, winning key matchups and pulling sneaky points out along the way. They’re 6-3-1 over the past 10 games, and the losses weren’t particularly poor performances, either. When teams get desparate, you’ll do whatever it takes to win. They’re not your typical Wildcard team with the high scoring offense they posesss. It’s not a team most would enjoy facing in the first round.
But have the Cats flown too close to the sun? Will weeks of playing do-or-die hockey take its toll against an unrelenting force that hasn’t had to worry about pushing the limit for nearly the entire season? The Bruins dealt with some late-season injury issues, but those players have had enough nights off to recharge. A healthy Bruins team can be unstoppable. And while the Panthers might be red-hot, the Bruins are… well, the Bruins.
So you’ve got a team playing with fire versus one of the best lineups we’ve ever seen. Figure out which of those matters the most to you.
Offense
When looking at base stats, it’s crazy to think David Pastrnak scored 61 goals and had 113 points – yet nobody else on the Bruins had 30 goals or 70 points. But that’s part of the beauty of Boston’s attack: the scoring comes from everywhere. Seven forwards had at least 40 points this year, and Taylor Hall would have had he remained healthy. Scoring depth was an issue for this group in recent years, but GM Don Sweeney addressed that the best he could and built a 300-goal team. Heck, even goaltender Linus Ullmark found the back of the net. It shouldn’t be surprising that the best team in the league happened to be one of the highest-scoring. Only Edmonton (3.96) had more goals-per-game than Boston (3.67) – the defense managed to do the rest.
Florida’s scoring was more top heavy, and they still managed to finish sixth with 3.51 goals per game. Matthew Tkachuk scored 100 points for the second consecutive season – and second team – while Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe both had more than 70 points. Sam Reinhart fell just short but was one of three 30-plus-goal scorers for a team that had to outscore opponents a bit too often.
Depth was a nice strength, too. Eetu Luostrainen had a surprising 41-point campaign, while Anton Lundell and Eric Staal both contributed decent numbers. Sam Bennett, who is currently out with a groin injury, was set for 50 points for the first time in his career. Fortunately for the Panthers, when everyone is healthy, this group has enough scoring chops to contend with the Bruins. It’s everywhere else where the Bruins have an advantage.
Defense
Given the exploits of Ullmark and Pastrnak, it feels like the Bruins’ brilliant blueline didn’t get enough credit from the average fan. They allowed just 2.10 goals against per game, far better than Carolina’s 2.56 in second. Boston still allowed just under 30 shots per game, but Natural Stat Trick says they’ve allowed the fewest high-danger goals against at 5-on-5 with 65, four fewer than Toronto. So Boston does an excellent job of forcing opponents to the perimeter; if not, they’ve got the goaltending to get it done.
The Bruins also get significant offensive help from the blueline. Hampus Lindholm (53) and Charlie McAvoy (51) both broke the 50-point mark, while Dmitry Orlov had 17 points in 23 games following his trade deadline acquisition from Washington. Matt Grzelcyk and Connor Clifton both crushed previous career-bests in points, too, further adding to the scoring depth narrative.
Florida, on the other hand, had a bit more difficulty keeping pucks out of the net. They allowed the 21st most at 3.32 per game, while averaging 31.7 shots a night. They only allowed 78 high-danger goals against at 5-on-5, so take that as you will.
Losing MacKenzie Weegar left a sizeable hole on the back end, but Brandon Montour’s emergence was something they couldn’t have expected. After scoring a career-high 11 goals and 37 points a year ago, he quickly became one of the team’s most important players with a whopping 73 points while also breaking the 100-penalty minute barrier for the first time ever. Mix in Gustav Forsling’s strong year, and the usual great play of Aaron Ekblad, and the Panthers can be tough to contain in a pinch. Still, the Bruins have the edge here.
Goaltending
Ullmark was by and large the best goaltender this season and is the easy favorite to win the Vezina Trophy. He posted a 40-6-1 record with two shutouts and a .938 save percentage. At 5-on-5, his 31.55 goals-saved above average and .934 save percentage were far beyond the rest of the pack among goaltenders with more than 30 starts. Simply put, we watched greatness in a year full of it in Beantown. If Ullmark falters, they have the luxury of having Jeremy Swayman – one of the NHL’s best backups – at their disposal to keep things moving. No matter who’s in net, the club’s in good shape.
Florida’s goaltending situation is significantly more interesting. In a perfect world, Sergei Bobrovsky – the highest-paid active goalie in the NHL at $10 million – would be the guy. But he’s not, and he’s statistically the worst playoff goaltender around. With Spencer Knight still out of the lineup, that means Lyon – the club’s third-stringer when everything’s fine and dandy – will be tasked with the biggest ask of his career.
Lyon is no stranger to big-time hockey. He led the Chicago Wolves to the Calder Cup with a spectacular playoff run a year ago, swapping starts with Pyotr Kochetkov. But obviously, the 30-year-old with no previous NHL playoff experience has faced nothing like this before – which might actually be a good thing.
Over the past few years, we’ve seen so many unheralded goaltenders come out of nowhere and steal the show. Connor Ingram and Kochetkov snatched he spotlight a year ago. You don’t know what you don’t know, and for goaltenders – where so much of the game is mental – you just have to go out there and do what you do best. Lyon told reporters in Toronto last week he had nothing to lose at this point, and that’s exactly the mentality he needs going forward.
Injuries
Like most teams in the closing stages of the season, the Bruins found themselves playing the roster shuffle game. Ullmark missed the team’s final game of the season, but should be ready to go. Same goes for Krejci and Bergeron, both of whom were out day-to-day. Nick Foligno missed some time with a lower-body injury and is back practicing, so he should be available. Defenseman Derek Forbort is back skating in a regular jersey and could be slotted back in before too long.
For Florida, Bennett – one of the team’s top forwards – was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday with a groin injury. There’s no clear timeline for him at the moment, especially with him on pace for one of his best seasons had he stayed healthy the entire way. Fortunately for the Panthers, that’s all there is to worry about right now.
Intangibles
Going back to the “Last Dance” concept, you have to think the Bruins will do whatever to takes to give their two vets another chance at Lord Stanley’s mug. They won it in 2011, came close in 2013 and 2019, and had numerous other close calls. But for as good as they’ve been, one title doesn’t feel like enough. And if this ends up being the end for Bergeron and Krejci – two of the best to ever don the gold and black – that alone should be motivation to make sure nothing’s left on the table.
For Florida, there’s a bit of a redemption ark. Everything went wrong against Tampa Bay last year, putting a premature end to the Panthers’ best season ever. They’ve been an otherwise mid-pack team for all of 2022-23, forcing themselves to play must-win hockey over the last month. Will that late-season momentum be enough to find the spark?
Series prediction
On regular season results alone, this should be the most lopsided matchup of the first round. Like, come on. We’re talking about the best statistical team we’ve ever seen going up against a team with way too many question marks heading into the first round.
But the Panthers are a scrappy team. They’ve got one of the best forwards in the NHL. They’ve got a blueline that can make life utterly miserable. And they’ve got a goalie riding the high of the best hockey of his career.
The Panthers have nothing to lose. If they fall, they’ll regroup. But the chance to beat the best team in the league – a team they proved they could hang with this year – is going to make them ramp things up to 11 every single night. The Panthers are going to win a game using the heart of the cards and the power of friendship, but that’s probably it.
Don’t bet against Boston. Florida will give them some things to think about, but the Bruins are just too good to fall this quickly.
Bruins in five games.
