Breaking down every Round 2 Stanley Cup playoff goaltending matchup

May 5, 2025, 10:00 EDT

Breaking down every Round 2 Stanley Cup playoff goaltending matchup

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

From 16 to eight, the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs are truly about to get nutty.

If you’re a fan of big-league goaltending, the first round was definitely for you. We saw some excellent performances in just about every series – and, shockingly, another brutal one from the leading Vezina Trophy candidate, Connor Hellebuyck.

We’d be remiss not to honor some of the fallen soliders from Round 1. New Jersey’s Jacob Markstrom laid everything on the line and managed to post the best goals saved above expected at 5-on-5 of 5.35. If it wasn’t for some of his outstanding play against Carolina, that could have easily been a sweep.

Filip Gustavsson played lights-out hockey again for the Minnesota Wild. It didn’t matter too much in the end, but he gave his team a chance to fight. At one point, Minnesota briefly looked like the favorites to win it all, partly thanks to their Swedish keeper.

And then there’s Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who managed to go toe-to-toe with Logan Thompson over the first two games before leaving Game 3 with a leg injury that knocked him out of the playoffs. It’s a shame Montembeault didn’t come back to put up a fight, but he showed the world why he’s a legitimate No. 1 goaltender right now.

Here’s a look at how the eight remaining teams stack up in the crease with a chance to make the final four on the line:

(M1) WASHINGTON CAPITALS vs. (M2) CAROLINA HURRICANES

Washington Capitals

Logan Thompson: 43 GP, 31-6-6, 2.49 GAA, .910 SV% (5 GP, 4-1, 2.23 GAA, .923 SV%)
Charlie Lindgren: 39 GP, 20-14-3, 2.73 GAA, .896 SV% (1 GP, 0-0, .800 GAA, .907 SV%)
Hunter Shepard: 1 GP, 0-1-0, 7.00 GAA, .731 SV%
Clay Stevenson: 1 GP, 0-1-0, 5.00 GAA, .868 SV%

Carolina Hurricanes

Frederik Andersen: 22 GP, 13-8-1, 2.50 GAA, .899 SV% (4GP, 3-1, 1.59 GAA, .936 SV%)
Pyotr Kochetkov: 47cGP, 27-16-3, 2.60 GAA, .898 SV% (2GP, 1-0, 2.50 GAA, .900 SV%)
Spencer Martin: 9cGP, 3-4-1, 3.89 GAA, .846 SV%
Dustin Tokarski: 6cGP, 4-2-0, 2.18 GAA, .902 SV%
Yaniv Perets: 1 GP, 0-0-0, 7.32 GAA, .857 SV%

Now this is an exciting one. Logan Thompson was one of the NHL’s best goaltenders in the regular season, and he kept the fun rolling in the playoffs. He was injured in Game 3 after Dylan Strome went barreling into him, resulting in Thompson needing assistance off the ice. At the time, it looked like his series was over – he was limping and had been hit in the head. But, there he was two nights later, sitting in the Capitals’ crease as the team came back to win Game 4 and force Montreal into a do-or-die Game 5 in D.C.

Thompson had the best surface-level save percentage in the first round, and his 3.84 GSAx at 5-on-5 is third among goalies still playing in the second round. He has been lights out this year and was one of the few high-end regular season goaltenders who managed to carry that momentum into the playoffs. Thompson has never had to lead a team this deep into the playoffs before, but his experience watching Adin Hill in 2023 probably didn’t hurt. Plus, this entire Capitals team is riding a high, especially after closing the series against Montreal on home ice – something you can’t take for granted during a playoff run.

But one of the goalies boasting better advanced analytics right now? That’s Freddy Andersen. Andersen boasted a 4.58 GSAx at 5-on-5 to finish third in the first round – only to be beaten by Markstrom and Oettinger. Andersen was never a playoff performer before heading to Carolina, but his play last year, mixed with his first-round fun against the Devils, showed he can rise to the occasion when they need him most.

But injuries have plagued him more than any other goaltender in recent NHL memory. He already missed 38 games this year due to knee surgery and missed 51 games a year ago due to an upper-body injury and blood clot issues. That’ll take a toll on anyone – that includes 35-year-old veteran goaltenders. Andersen left Game 4 with an issue and missed out on Game 5. The extra time between games could prove fruitful in his return (he joined the Hurricanes for practice on Friday), but it always feels like he’s a ticking time bomb.

In terms of pure numbers, this is the best goaltending matchup in the playoffs. Both goaltenders were among the top in most notable categories in the first round. But they’re also the most bruised up, with both having to leave games at some point during the opening round. Both squads have decent backups, but we’re here to watch the best of the best – and right now, the stats look sexy in this one.

(A1) TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. (A3) FLORIDA PANTHERS

Toronto Maple Leafs

Anthony Stolarz: 34 GP, 21-8-3, 2.14 GAA, .926 SV% (6 GP, 4-2, 2.21 GAA, .901 SV%)
Joseph Woll: 42 GP, 27-14-1, 2.73 GAA, .909 SV%
Dennis Hildeby: 6 GP, 3-3-0, 3.33 GAA, .878 SV%
Matt Murray: 2 GP, 1-1-0, 3.54 GAA, .879 SV%

Florida Panthers

Sergei Bobrovsky: 54 GP, 33-19-2, 2.44 GAA, .906 SV% (5 GP, 4-1, 2.21 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO)
Vitek Vanecek: 24 GP, 5-14-4, 3.62 GAA, .884 SV%

The mentor vs. the mentee. A year ago, these two starters were teammates. Sergei Bobrovsky was the man of the hour, leading the team to the Stanley Cup Final for the second straight year – and winning it, finally. But Anthony Stolarz took it as a perfect learning opportunity and swung it into the first starter’s gig of his NHL career, posting some excellent numbers in tandem with Joseph Woll.

Stolarz finished the first round with a goal saved above expected of 3.82, which was good for third among goaltenders moving on to the second round. In contrast to Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark, who finished with a -1.43 rating (14th out of 19 goaltenders), Stolarz outdueled a goaltender in the playoffs for the first time. That was the most solid goaltending the Leafs have gotten in the playoffs in decades, which has to inspire confidence after years of wondering who was going to start on a given day for one reason or another.

Bobrovsky, though, has been here before. He understands the pressure as well as anyone come playoff time. The Panthers have done a good job of limiting the shots against over the past few years, keeping Bobrovsky’s workload light for the most part. And while he’s had games where he maybe let in a few too many goals for comfort, the veteran Russian goalkeeper has a tendency to turn the jets on when the Panthers need him the most.

Statistically, Bobrovsky was more of a mid-pack goaltender in the first round. He registered a 0.34 GSAx, which was a massive step up from Andrei Vasilevskiy’s -3.44 at 5-on-5 for Tampa Bay. Bobrovsky is 36, so he’s not a spring chicken anymore. But his ability to come alive in important games is exactly why the Panthers look primed for a third straight trip to the Stanley Cup final.

If you’re basing this battle solely on recent performance, Stolarz has been the better goaltender. But, look above – the first-round surface stats are exactly the same. That’s why you got to dig a bit deeper to find the advanced analytics. The Panthers played one fewer game in the first round, giving Boborovsky extra rest. Add in the playoff experience and Bobrovsky might have the edge to start. But this should be a good crease battle, and don’t be surprised if we see a lot of 2-1 games decide this series.

(C1) WINNIPEG JETS vs. (C2) DALLAS STARS

Winnipeg Jets

Connor Hellebuyck: 62 GP, 47-12-3, 2.00 GAA, .925 SV% (7 GP, 4-3, 3.85 GAA, .830 SV%)
Eric Comrie: 20 GP, 9-10-1, 2.39 GAA, .914 SV% (3 GP, 0-0, 1.40 GAA, .923 SV%)

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger: 58 GP, 36-18-4, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV% (7 GP, 4-3, 2.85 GAA, .911 SV%)
Casey DeSmith: 27 GP, 14-8-2, 2.59 GAA, .913 SV% (1GP, 0-0, 3.03 GAA, .929 SV%)

Hockey is such a weird sport, isn’t it? Hellebuyck is the runaway favorite to win the 2025 Vezina Trophy as top goaltender, and he’s a finalist for the Hart Trophy as the most valuable player, period. Yet, nobody had a more unstable first round than Hellebuyck, leaving so many questions heading into the second round. Even in Game 7 when the Jets ultimately came back, many were pinning Winnipeg’s ugly first half on the team’s supposed superstar goaltender.

It’s hard to truly understand how things fall apart for Hellebuyck like they do. For context, Hellebuyck had a 37.32 goals saved above expected at 5-on-5 during the regular season. Nobody else was better than a 26.00. Hellebuyck is a dismal -8.42 – dead last in seven playoff games, and far beyond the second worst set by Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy at -3.44. There’s just something about Hellebuyck when the playoffs come around that just makes him turn into a pumpkin. But the Jets still managed to get by without his superb goaltending, and hopefully, the demons can be put to rest.

And if not, Oettinger is going to expose him, big time. The American keeper has the second-best GSAx of the playoffs at 5.31, and the most of any goalie still in the running. Even though it took seven games to close it out, Oettinger was excellent in the first round, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, given that he was also one of the best goalies during the season.

Oettinger’s spring success has been well documented. Year after year, he has proven to be one of the most incredible playoff performers, highlighted by his 9.58 5-on-5 GSAx last year (the sixth-best single-playoff number since the COVID-19 bubble playoffs). Oettinger is rarely the reason why the Stars lose any given game and outside of a five-goal night in Game 6, Oettinger seemed to handle the pressure the Colorado Avalanche’s top stars sent his way every night.

This shouldn’t feel like a lopsided battle in the slightest – and it definitely shouldn’t be pointed in Oettinger’s favor. But it’s hard to feel confident in Hellebuyck right now. Usually, with top goalies, you expect them to figure it out – but the future Hockey Hall of Famer has given fans very little reason to be confident once the games start to matter. We’ll see if he can flip the script against Dallas – if not, his fellow countryman will be there to steal the spotlight.

(P1) VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS vs. (P3) EDMONTON OILERS

Vegas Golden Knights

Adin Hill: 50 GP, 32-13-5, 2.47 GAA, .906 SV% (6 GP, 4-2, 2.83 GAA, .880 SV%)
Ilya Samsonov: 29 GP, 16-9-4, 2.82 GAA, .891 SV%
Akira Schmid: 5 GP, 2-0-1, 1.26 GAA, .944 SV% (1 GP, 0-0, 0.00 GAA, 1.00 SV%)

Edmonton Oilers

Stuart Skinner: 50 GP, 26-18-4, 2.81 GAA, .896 SV% (2 GP, 0-2, 6.11 GAA, .810 SV%)
Calvin Pickard: 36 GP, 22-10-1, 2.71 GAA, .900 SV% (4 GP, 4-0, 2.93 GAA, .893 SV%)
Olivier Rodrigue: 2 GP, 0-1-0, 3.10 GAA, .862 SV%

A lot has happened since Hill was the architect to the Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup run in 2023. To put it mildly – he’s been inconsistent. The highs have been high, but this season has been a general step back for him. But, can you ever count out Hill in the playoffs? He was huge two years ago and could easily do it again.

But to make that happen, he’s going to need to flip the series on its head a bit. Vegas’ top stars struggled to produce in the first half, putting some extra pressure on Hill. His -1.46 GSAx was 15th, with only Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck struggling more among starting goalies. Hill was excellent in Game 6, showing that big-game energy we’ve come to know from him. If those are the type of performances we see from him going forward, he could have the edge against the Oilers.

The Oilers were the first team in the playoffs to make a goaltending switch, swapping out Stuart Skinner after a dismal two games in favor of veteran backup Calvin Pickard. This same swap happened a year ago, but Skinner ultimately took back the No. 1 gig and led the team to a Cup Final. But something had to change after an ugly first two games, and Pickard helped the team move on with four straight wins in some of his best hockey of the year.

Pickard’s surface numbers weren’t spectacular, but he did the job with a 1.05 GSAx at 5-on-5. That was good for 10th among the 19 goalies in the first round, and significantly better than Skinner’s -2.56. For now, it’s Pickard’s crease to lose. Skinner showed last year that just adequate goaltending might be enough when you’ve got two of the best players in the world up front. Pickard was also statistically better than Hill in the first round, which, at least in a small sample size, gives the Oilers an advantage in the crease.

Both teams have had question marks in net this season, and it’s hard to feel truly confident in any of the options. But with strong offenses in front of them, one of them might be able to outscore any problems in net. Both teams have goaltenders who’ve been through the ringer before, so there’s nothing new there – but which one will come out on top? Just based on recent performance, Pickard looks to have the edge. But things seem to change quickly around here, don’t they?

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