Burnside: Slumping Minnesota Wild at a crossroads approaching trade deadline
For most of the first half of this NHL season, the Minnesota Wild were certifiable darlings.
They were in first or tied for first in the competitive Central Division for 27 of their first 30 games. They were the top team or tied for the top spot in in the Western Conference multiple times through the first half of the season.
After buying out veterans Zach Parise and Ryan Suter in the off-season, it was hardly the kind of heady stuff fans or observers had imagined for a franchise that has not played beyond the second round of the playoffs since 2003, their third season in the league.
The team rode a 10-game point streak into mid-February and at one point had points in 12 of 13 games. It was not beyond the pale to imagine the deep, explosive Wild going toe to toe with everyone’s Western Conference favorite, the Colorado Avalanche, come playoff time.
Well, as the old saying goes, that was then. As for now, well, the Wild approach the trade deadline in the midst of a massive swoon that has pushed them to edge of the playoff bubble and will test the resolve of GM Bill Guerin, head coach Dean Evason and every member of the Wild lineup.
In fact, it’s fair to suggest that, given the many dynamics at play as we approach the March-21 trade deadline, no team is more firmly in the crosshairs than the Wild.
Act too passively in spite of having lots of cap space to play with and maybe the team misses out on a chance to improve, pull itself out of this tailspin and re-establish itself as a legitimate contender.
Act too rashly and the team risks overpaying for assets when they are about to enter a period of severe cap penalties related to the buyouts of Parise and Suter.
It’s the yin and yang of life in the NHL for all those teams not named Tampa that are trying to figure out how to get all the pieces to fit.
“You’re right,” Guerin told Daily Faceoff this week. “I don’t want to react emotionally. Our team is in a bit of a funk.”
Funk is a good way to describe it.
Since beating the Carolina Hurricanes, the top team in the Eastern Conference, on Feb. 12 and then two nights later beating the Detroit Red Wings, the Wild have gone 2-8-0 heading into Tuesday’s date with the New York Rangers. The Wild have been outscored 59-32 and seem perpetually on the edge of imploding from game to game.
If there is external pressure on Guerin to make a move, to do something to get things back on track, the two-time Stanley Cup champion as a player and two-time Cup winner as an executive in Pittsburgh is sorry to disappoint. Guerin isn’t exactly the impulsive type.
“Listen, I want to help, the coaches want to help, the players want to turn this around,” Guerin said. “We need to do it together, but I don’t think me making an irrational trade will do any good.”
In fact, he’s told his team that much.
“I told the players, we’re not going to be able to finesse our way out of it,” Guerin said. “I’m not going to be able to trade ourselves out of this.”
What that leaves is hard work and attention to detail, the kinds of things that were evident in Minnesota’s game almost every night through the first half of the season.
That doesn’t mean the Wild won’t be active leading up to March 21. They have a plan like every other team that fancies itself a Cup contender. The team’s hockey operations group continues to discuss options moving toward the deadline and, sure, some of those topics do reflect the team’s recent slide.
“Times like this are hard. They’re terrible. They stink,” Guerin said. “Everybody feels the pressure. You see that once-nice spot you had in the standings and it’s not so comfortable anymore.”
He feels it. So do the coaching staff and the players.
But while it’s fun to imagine a big-ticket item like a Claude Giroux being added to the top six forwards, the feeling is this is a team whose original deadline plan was more about adding around the edges, a depth forward perhaps, some reinforcements on the blueline maybe.
And even this current swoon isn’t likely to divert the organization from that plan.
“This team has proven that they can play with anybody,” Guerin said. “We just have to regain our confidence and our swagger and get back to it. And that will come. If we keep playing hard not trying to cut corners or anything like that, we’ll be okay.
“I don’t think we need to panic,” the GM added. “I just think we need to put our heads together and figure out how we can help. This is no time to put added pressure on the players. They’re putting enough pressure on themselves. It’s on me and Dean to help these guys. Not to put our thumb on them.”
One of the big questions that arises out of this situation is: who are the real Minnesota Wild?
Is this stretch of poor play and bad puck luck a blip on the radar, or is that water finding its own level? And does the answer have to be one or the other, or can it be an amalgamation of both?
“I don’t think they’re there yet,” said one long-time Western Conference scout.
One thing that most people can agree on is that, for the Wild to get back on track, the goaltending, so stout for the first half of the season, has to rebound.
Longtime NHLer and veteran analyst Ray Ferraro was thinking about the goaltending dynamic at the all-star weekend in Vegas a couple of weeks before the Wild became unglued. Cam Talbot was there for the Wild. And so was Jack Campbell for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Both goaltenders had put up sterling numbers and were, it’s fair to say, surprise all-stars relative to pre-season expectations.
Now Campbell and Talbot, along with Talbot’s backup Kaapo Kahkonen, have gone sideways, and the angst level for both franchises is through the roof.
“Since then it’s been really hard,” Ferraro said of those All Star netminders.
Not that the Wild are going to be in the market for a goaltender at the trade deadline. That’s not in the cards. So, the Wild goaltenders will have to find their way back their former rhythm.
Of course, it’s never just the goaltending. Team defense has to revert to form. For that to happen, Minnesota’s D-corps must get healthy, which is happening as we speak.
Defenseman Matt Dumba is just now back on the ice, and he is a key part of the Wild equation, Ferraro said.
“Dumba’s an interesting cat, because it’s not just on the ice for him,” Ferraro said.
The team may not have missed Dumba’s big personality when they were winning, “but you miss it when it’s not there and you’re struggling,” Ferraro said. “You realize how much you miss it.”
The Wild will also get left winger Jordan Greenway back from injury an important physical, two-way presence in the Wild lineup.
Are the physical reinforcements and overall good health enough to light the way back to a previous level of play? Maybe. But it’s clear the psyche of the Wild right now is much different than it was.
Ferraro was once upon a time roommates with Evason. In fact, one of our favorites among the one million Ferraro stories is how he and Evason bought a well-worn car together when they were living/playing in the minors in Binghamton. When they got called up to the NHL, they simply left the car and the keys in the street. It might still be there for all they know.
“Dean is one of the most fiercely competitive people I’ve ever met and I’ve ever known,” Ferraro said.
Evason’s task right now is to walk the line between telling his group they’re going to be OK and reminding them they can be better.
From mid-December through mid-February, the Wild were third in the NHL in goals per game, averaging more than four nightly. They had also scored an unusual number of 6-on-5 goals, a league-best 13, heading into their slump.
Those dynamics are hard to replicate night in and night out.
“They play with tempo and pace, and they’re physical, and that’s really hard to do all the time,” said Ferraro, who saw them recently in Toronto when they lost 3-1.
Longtime NHL player and analyst for Wild games Wes Walz likens it to owning a car with multiple issues. The goaltending, penalty kill and power play have all struggled during this stretch.
“It’s almost like three tires are off the car right now,” Walz said. “But you might as well have it happen all at once.”
Walz believes that, at their best, the Wild are a hard-headed, north-south team. A lot more east-west has crept into their game, and there seems to be a tendency to try and score their way out of problems, which is never a long-term solution.
Let’s go back to the summer. After Guerin opened some breathing space for a new group of younger leaders by buying out Parise and Suter, everyone knew that at some point they would be counted on to help guide the team through some adversity. This is that time.
“You don’t want to be going through this with 10 or 15 games left in the schedule,” Walz said. “Right now the Wild have time.”
Not only do the Wild have time, they also have the added bonus of a schedule that is heavily weighted to home games.
Heading into Tuesday’s tilt with the Rangers, the Wild have played just 23 of 54 games at Xcel Energy Center, where they are an impressive 16-6-1.
“It’s hard to win in this building” if you’re a visiting team, Walz noted.
Bottom line? The Wild probably weren’t as good as they were when they were on a 10-game point streak, “and they’re not this bad,” Ferraro said.
The good thing is the Western Conference is a dog’s breakfast right now. Sure, the Wild are much, much closer to ninth – three points from being out of the playoffs to be exact as of Tuesday morning – than they are first, as the Avs have opened up a 20-point lead on them.
But the Western Conference standings are nothing if not unpredictable.
“The West, you’re throwing it up against the wall right now,” Ferraro said.
But Ferraro remains convinced the Wild will find their way out this and to rediscover what made them the darlings of the NHL for most of the first half of the season.
“I think they can,” he said. “I really do. I think they’re a good team.”