Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Calgary Flames: 1st Pacific Division, 111 Points
Dallas Stars: 4th Central Division, 98 Points
Schedule (ET)
Tuesday, May 3, 10 p.m.: Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Thursday, May 5, 10 p.m.: Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Saturday, May 3, 9:30 p.m.: Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Monday, May 9, 9:30 p.m.: Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Wednesday, May 11, TBD: Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Friday, May 13, TBD: Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Sunday, May 15, TBD: Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
The Skinny
The Stars beat the Flames in the first round of the bubble playoffs in 2020 en route to their appearance in the Stanley Cup final, so this is a rematch of that series. It’s also a battle between teams who bounced back from disappointing showings during the 2020-21 season. The Stars crashed after that Cup final run and missed the playoffs while the lackluster Flames finished fifth in the All-Canadian Division.
This Calgary team is quite a bit different than the one Dallas beat a couple of years ago. Gone are veteran defenders Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie, but the Flames are now a significantly better team at keeping the puck out of the net thanks to goaltender Jacob Markstrom and the system put in place by head coach Darryl Sutter.
The Stars have also had some new life injected into their lineup since their run in 2020. After a breakout rookie season last year, Jason Robertson exploded with 41 goals this season and goaltender Jake Oettinger posted a .914 save percentage in his sophomore campaign, helping to offset the injuries suffered by Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin.
Head to head
Calgary Flames: 2-0-1
Dallas Stars: 1-2-0
The Stars pulled off an overtime win over the Flames in their first meeting of the season back in November but then Calgary won the next two meetings and, ultimately, the season series. It was a tight head-to-head between these two teams as two of the three meetings were one-goal games and the other featured an empty-netter at the end of the game.
Top Five Scorers
Calgary Flames
Johnny Gaudreau: 115 points
Matthew Tkachuk: 104 points
Elias Lindholm: 82 points
Andrew Mangiapane: 55 points
Rasmus Andersson: 50 points
Dallas Stars
Joe Pavelski: 81 points
Jason Robertson: 79 points
Roope Hintz: 72 points
Tyler Seguin: 49 points
John Klingberg: 47 points
X-Factor
Can Johnny Gaudreau turn his incredible season into an incredible playoff run?
Gaudreau had the best performance of his NHL career this year, setting a career-high in goals with 40 and points with 115. Given how the Flames performed in the standings and how good he was, there’s an argument to be made that Gaudreau should be the Hart Trophy winner, though fans in Toronto and Edmonton might gripe with that.
The last time Gaudreau set a career-high was when he scored 99 points back in 2018-19. The Flames finished with the best record in the Western Conference that season and wound up getting bounced in the first round by the eighth-seeded Colorado Avalanche. Calgary’s elite offense completely dried up in that series due largely to Gaudreau only putting up one point in five games.
It’s hard to see the Stars beating the Flames four times if Gaudreau plays the way he did during the regular season.
Offense
This is certainly a mismatch when it comes to scoring goals. The Flames scored the sixth-most goals in the league this season while the Stars were well below average in 21st.
Calgary boasts an elite trio on its top line, as Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm all reached the 40-goal plateau. Beyond those three, Calgary has a handful of players who can score lower in the lineup. Tyler Toffoli and Blake Coleman are proven producers in the playoffs and Andrew Mangiapane broke out with 35 goals this season.
Dallas has a super line of its own, as Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson, and Roope Hintz scored 81, 79, and 71 points, respectively, but there isn’t much firepower after that. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn both had down seasons and Alexander Radulov’s production has completely fallen off a cliff. The Stars need those three veterans to wake up if they want to match Calgary’s deep offense.
Defense
Calgary lost Brodie and Giordano in back-to-back offseasons but didn’t miss a beat as the likes of Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, and Oliver Kylington all stepped up this season. It also helps when you have Sutter behind the bench, a head coach who’s notorious for building and executing incredibly effective defensive systems.
Each of Calgary’s main six defenders — Hanifin, Andersson, Kylington, Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov, and Erik Gudbranson — finished with a positive goals for percentage and expected goals for percentage, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Stars are also a quality club defensively, as they ranked 11th in the league in terms of expected goals against. Dallas has an excellent top pair with Miro Heiskanen and Ryan Suter and a strong second pair with Esa Lindell and John Klingberg. It’s the same top-four from the Cup run, save for swapping Suter in for Jamie Oleksiak.
Goaltending
It was the Khudobin show in 2020 but now it’s Oettinger’s net. The No. 26 overall pick from the 2017 draft made his NHL debut during Dallas’ run that summer, stopping eight of eight shots over the course of two relief appearances. Though he started the season off on fire, Oettinger cooled off a bit later in the season, as he posted a .909 save percentage over his final 10 appearances.
Markstrom is coming off the best season of his career, as he posted a .922 save percentage in 63 games and led the league with nine shutouts. Markstrom has only been a part of one playoff run in his NHL career, which came back in 2020 when he helped the Vancouver Canucks nearly reach the Western Conference final in the bubble, where they would have played the Stars.
Injuries
Sean Monahan’s season came to an end one month ago when it was announced that he would undergo hip surgery. Otherwise, the Flames are healthy.
Dallas is without backup goaltender Braden Holtby, who’s been on the shelf with a lower-body injury since mid-March. A knee injury ended the career of Bishop earlier this season and a hip injury has Khudobin on the shelf until next year.
Intangibles
The Flames simply haven’t been able to get the job done with this core. They won a playoff series against the Canucks in 2015 and won their play-in series over the Winnipeg Jets in the bubble but this group hasn’t been able to go on any kind of run. Maybe Sutter, who led them to the Stanley Cup final in 2004, can be the one to finally get them over the hump.
Meanwhile, on the other side, head coach Rick Bowness was able to get a veteran Stars team to the Stanley Cup Final in 2020 as Dallas beat multiple teams along the way that were better on paper. A lot of guys from that group are still around and they haven’t forgotten how to play in the playoffs.
CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION
The Stars aren’t going to roll over without a fight but they simply don’t boast the same firepower that Calgary does. Gaudreau shakes his playoff demons and the Flames play good Sutter hockey en route to an easy series win. Flames in 5.
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ARTICLE SPONSORED BY DAILY FACEOFF BRACKET CHALLENGE
