Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Calgary Flames: 1st in Pacific Division, defeated Dallas 4-3 in first round
Edmonton Oilers: 2nd in Pacific Division, defeated Los Angeles 4-3 in first round
Schedule (ET)
Wednesday, May 18, 10:30 p.m.: Edmonton at Calgary (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Friday, May 20, 10:30 p.m.: Edmonton at Calgary (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Sunday, May 22, 8 p.m.: Calgary at Edmonton (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Tuesday, May 24, 9:30 p.m.: Calgary at Edmonton (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
*Thursday, May 26, TBD: Edmonton at Calgary (TBD)
*Saturday, May 28, TBD: Calgary at Edmonton (TBD)
*Monday, May 30, TBD: Edmonton at Calgary (TBD)
The Skinny
Here it is. The series we’ve all been waiting for. The animosity has been bubbling between these two teams for a few years now and the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames will finally meet in the playoffs.
It’ll be the first playoff Battle of Alberta since 1991, a matchup that features a new generation of Oilers and Flames with new narratives. Connor McDavid is in hero mode and appears ready to drag his team to glory, 40-year-old goaltender Mike Smith gets to go up against his former club, and Johnny Gaudreau and Co. have finally exorcised their playoff demons.
We know there’s going to be a lot of firepower in this series, but there’s also going to be fireworks. As I said, the beef has been boiling between these two teams as they’ve seen a lot of each other over the past few years. Things were pretty tame between Edmonton and Calgary last year in the Canadian Division games, but having fans back in the seats will surely add a spark.
Remember, we aren’t far removed from this…
Head To Head
Edmonton: 2-2-0
Calgary: 2-2-0
Top Five Scorers (Through Round 1)
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau: 8 points
Matthew Tkachuk: 6 points
Elias Lindholm: 5 points
Mikael Backlund: 4 points
Trevor Lewis: 3 points
Edmonton
Connor McDavid: 14 points
Evander Kane: 9 points
Leon Draisaitl: 9 points
Cody Ceci: 6 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 5 points
X-Factor
There are a handful of things that could tilt this series in either direction but the most glaring is the status of Leon Draisaitl.
The 2020 Hart Trophy winner worked his way through an ankle injury in the first round and clearly wasn’t at his best. Draisaitl scored five goals and nine assists but also got outscored 7-5 while on the ice at even-strength.
If Draisaitl is healthy, he’ll be able to drive his own line, which gives Edmonton a deeper, more potent attack and makes life easier on Connor McDavid. If he isn’t healthy, Draisaitl is likely best served as a trigger-man on McDavid’s wing. They’re a lethal duo, but having Draisaitl and McDavid on at the same time makes the Oilers easier to shut down.
Offense
This is going to be an explosive series. That’s what happens when you mix fire and oil.
The Flames and Oilers finished sixth and eighth, respectively, in the league in goals during the regular season and both squads boast plenty of firepower.
Calgary has a top line that features three different 40-goal scorers in Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm. Behind that lethal line, the Flames have a 35-goal scorer in Andrew Mangiapane and battle-tested playoff performers in Tyler Toffoli and Blake Coleman who can score goals. The Flames only scored 15 goals in the first round but they averaged 40 shots on goal per game against Dallas.
Edmonton has two Hart Trophy winners, and while Leon Draisaitl might not be at his best right now, Connor McDavid has found another gear. McDavid scored a whopping 14 points in seven games against the Kings and seemed to be getting better game by game. It also helps that the Oilers have more depth than ever before in the McDavid era, as Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins combined for 11 goals in the first round.
Defense
I’ve mentioned the X-factor of Leon Draisaitl’s health above, but the Flames have an injury situation of their own worth keeping an eye on. Chris Tanev, the team’s top shutdown defender, left Game 6 with an injury and didn’t play in Game 7.
If Tanev isn’t available, the Flames will have to lean harder on the heavy pairing of Nikita Zadorov and Erik Gudbranson to fill the cracks behind their top pairing of Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson. Swapping out Tanev for Michael Stone alongside the inexperienced Oliver Kylington might not be an ideal duo to play in a high-pressure situation.
The Oilers tightened up their team defense after going down 3-2 in their series with Los Angeles. Darnell Nurse was suspended in a must-win Game 6 but Brett Kulak stepped up and filled his role on the top pair. Cody Ceci has been a rock for the Oilers in the playoffs and the Duncan Keith and Evan Bouchard pair got steadier as the first round went along.
Both teams are facing a bigger challenge defensively than they did in the first round and their blueliners will have to adjust as such.
Goaltending
The Flames will surely be happy to fire pucks on somebody other than Jake Oettinger, who stopped 95.4 percent of the shots he faced in the first round, but Mike Smith has been no slouch himself.
After making a costly error late in Game 1, Smith locked in for the rest of the series and posted a .947 save percentage in the remaining six games. The 40-year-old greybeard owns the second-best playoff save percentage of all time behind only Tim Thomas. He’s also been in a groove for a few weeks now as Smith finished the season on a nine-game winning streak in which he put up a .951 SV%.
Calgary is also set with Jacob Markstrom in net. In the first round against the Stars, Markstrom stopped 181 of 192 shots and was a rock when the Flames were playing in overtime in Game 7. Markstrom was one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season, as he put up a .922 SV% and led the league with nine shutouts.
Injuries
Both teams have key players dealing with some bumps and bruises right now.
Leon Draisaitl, as mentioned earlier, was a game-time decision for Game 7 and wound up logging 22:38 in Edmonton’s deciding win. Word came out after the game that Draisaitl played through a high-ankle sprain.
"I'm fine" @EdmontonOilers Leon Draisaitl when asked about his injury
— Gene Principe (@GenePrincipe) May 15, 2022The Flames are going to be without Sean Monahan for the entirety of the playoffs as he underwent hip surgery back in early April. Shutdown defender Chris Tanev also left Calgary’s Game 6 loss to Dallas and didn’t suit up for Game 7. His status is unknown.
Intangibles
A key part of this matchup is mental. Emotions are going to be very high and the Flames thrive when they get in the heads of their opponents.
In the past, the Battle of Alberta has featured Matthew Tkachuk agitating the Oilers into taking momentum-changing penalties, so the Oilers will need to remain disciplined and focused to avoid that trap.
While Darryl Sutter is the veteran coach who’s seen it all in the NHL, rookie bench boss Jay Woodcroft has also done an excellent job at keeping the Oilers composed and playing their game.
The fans will also play a role in this series as both the Saddledome in Calgary and Rogers Place in Edmonton will be rocking. It’ll be integral for the visiting team to come in with a big effort right off the hop to try to silence the crowd. Neither team has dealt with a playoff series this intense so it’ll be a learning process along the way.
CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION
The Flames have the deeper roster and stronger goaltender but the Oilers have the best player in the world on their side. Connor McDavid is on a mission right now and the Flames are one of his favorite opponents. Still, the Flames have the star power to cancel him out, and Draisaitl is not 100 percent. Flames in 7.