Can Nikita Grebenkin become the Toronto Maple Leafs’ next hidden gem?

Credit: Shmakov Maxim

If all goes well, the 2022 NHL Draft could end up paying off quite nicely for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Fraser Minten is one of Toronto’s top prospects, while Nicholas Moldenhauer could still become something once he completes a few more years of college. Toronto took Dennis Hildeby as a triple overager at No. 122, with the massive Swede eventually becoming the team’s top goaltending prospect.

But the hottest ticket right now is Nikita Grebenkin, whom Toronto took at No. 135. He was originally passed over a year prior following a lackluster first season in the top Russian U-20 league. Fast forward to today, and he’s been receiving some incredible praise through training camp – and could even be in the conversation to start the 2024-25 season with the big club in Toronto.

Grebenkin’s rise has been fascinating to watch. The Serov, Russia native had 12 goals and 34 points in 54 games in his first full year with Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk in the MHL, the top junior league in Russia. It was the 10th highest-scoring output from a first-year draft-eligible prospect in the MHL that season and sixth out of nine full-time MHLers who ended up getting selected.

Grebenkin had a significantly better second season, scoring 17 goals and 64 points in 58 games, finishing sixth among 341 Draft+1 prospects. Granted, most NHL-drafted players had already moved on to the KHL at that point, but Grebrenkin made the most of his opportunity at the time. That led the Leafs to take a chance on him in the fifth round. With teams getting to hold on to the rights of Russian players longer than, say, a Canadian playing in the CHL, the Leafs were banking on him developing over the long term.

You could see the hockey IQ and playmaking from an early age. Over time, he got stronger and understood how to use it. Russian players often get a reputation of not being overly physical out there, but Grebenkin wasn’t afraid of a challenge.

That allowed him to earn some KHL time in 2022-23, with Metallurg Magnitogorsk loaning him out to Amur Khabarovsk. He impressed mightily, registering 26 points in 45 games to finish fourth in team scoring. Only Ivan Nikolishin, the team’s highest scorer, had a better point-per-game average (0.63) on the club than Grebenkin’s 0.58.

Grebenkin played an even bigger role with Magnitogorsk as a 21-year-old last year, tallying 19 goals and 41 points on a low-scoring team. It was good for second in team scoring, and he was third among all U-21 players while playing the third most games of anyone that age. It’s hard to get playing time as a younger player in the KHL because developing players for the NHL isn’t the goal – winning now is. Despite that, Grebenkin found a way to contribute, and the Leafs noticed.

Now, he’s set for his first year of pro hockey in North America. Grebenkin has been with Toronto since the team’s rookie tournament against Montreal a few weeks ago, and he just made his preseason debut with the club on Sunday night. He lined up with John Tavares and Max Pacioretty to start, and helped ramp up the crowd late in the game with a spirited fight against former Maple Leaf prospect Adam Gaudette.

“I just loved that. A new heavy(weight) in town, I love to see that,” Maple Leafs forward Ryan Reaves said post-game in the 6-5 loss to Ottawa. “It’s good to see kids get involved like that. It’s a full team thing.”

Grebenkin has never been one to drop the gloves, but he clearly relished in the spotlight.

“He’s a young kid, I think he’s shown us a lot in camp here with his strength, size, ability,” Leafs coach Craig Berube said Sunday. “He’s trying to impress.”

Grebenkin loves having the puck on his stick. He can be creative in 1-on-1 situations, doing his best to deke guys out and create a chance. He’s better as a setup guy, especially when paired with a speedy, skilled shooter. Grebenkin does an excellent job of cycling the puck. He’s able to shrug off shoves from bigger players, keep the play alive and then generate a scoring chance.

There’s room to grow for him as a player. His skating is still a bit awkward at times, but working with the Leafs development staff will help curb that. There has been legitimate improvement since he was originally drafted, too.

But the big thing for Grebenkin is just how far he has come as a player the past few years. In 2020-21, he’d often try to do too much in the offensive zone and not enough anywhere else. Grebenkin was aggressive, but got himself in trouble a bit too often. He focused on channeling his energy to being dominant on the puck in 2022-23 and it was like he was completely different player right out of the gate.

Now, after even more seasoning, Grebenkin looks like a legitimate long-term option for Toronto. And at 21, he’s still quite young. Grebenkin is one of the few prospects in Toronto’s system that isn’t afraid to mix offensive flair with physicality. Grebenkin didn’t score, but he made his impact known in his first preseason game, and he’s only just getting started. There’s no doubt Grebenkin needs to spend at least most of the campaign in the AHL. Toronto isn’t an easy market to play in, and he needs to adapt to his new surroundings. Taking away the immediate pressure of having to perform in the NHL doesn’t hurt, either.

But, at this point in his development, Grebenkin looks promising. And that’s all you can ask for from a fifth-round pick.

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Can Nikita Grebenkin become the Toronto Maple Leafs’ next hidden gem?

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