Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders: 2023 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Carolina Hurricanes: 1st in Metropolitan Division, 113 points
New York Islanders: 1st Eastern Conference Wild Card, 93 points
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time |
| Monday, April 17 | 1. New York at Carolina | 7 p.m. ET |
| Wednesday, April 19 | 2. New York at Carolina | 7 p.m. ET |
| Friday, April 21 | 3. Carolina at New York | 7 p.m. ET |
| Sunday, April 23 | 4. Carolina at New York | 1 p.m. ET |
| Tuesday, April 25 | 5. New York at Carolina* | TBD |
| Friday, April 28 | 6. Carolina at New York* | TBD |
| Sunday, April 30 | 7. New York at Carolina* | TBD |
The Skinny
Despite the 20-point gap in the standings between these Metropolitan Division rivals, this series looks like an early test for the Metropolitan-winning Hurricanes and the sort of dogfight the New York Islanders relish.
Just over a month ago, the Hurricanes were on top of the world, first in their Division, and just nine points back from the transcendent Bruins for the Presidents’ Trophy race with plenty of hockey left. Then, the conservative Islanders would have been a bug on Carolina’s red-and-black windshield in a seven-game series.
Much has changed in the meantime. Sniper Andrei Svechnikov tore his ACL on a turn on March 11, and the Canes’ offense has not been the same since. Rod Brind’Amour’s outfit sputtered to a 9-8-1 record in their remaining 18 games, barely doing enough to stave off the surging Rangers and emergent Devils for the division crown; they only shook the latter on the final day of the season.
The Islanders, meanwhile, did just enough to secure Stanley Cup Playoff hockey and avoid the runaway train that is Boston. For a Lou Lamoriello outfit, making the postseason is the operative issue. From there, his Isles, now under the tutelage of Barry Trotz protege Lane Lambert, can smother, harass, and otherwise frustrate more talented teams en route to overperforming.
Yes, the Hurricanes and Islanders occupy the same respective positions in the standings that they did when Svechnikov went down, but in April, this series has all but become a pick ’em.
Head-to-Head
Carolina: 3-1
NY Islanders: 1-3
The Hurricanes edged a predictably low-scoring season series between two of the NHL’s stingiest defenses. They outscored New York 12-9 over the four meetings.
Most of that offense came in their first and third meetings, a 6-2 Islanders triumph and a 5-2 reply from the Hurricanes, respectively. Sebastian Aho (of Carolina, not his New York doppelganger) notched a hat trick in the latter. Frederik Andersen started three of the four meetings for Carolina, going 2-1 with a .916 save percentage.
Top Five Scorers
Carolina
Martin Necas, 71 points
Sebastian Aho, 67 points
Brent Burns, 61 points
Andrei Svechnikov, 55 points
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, 43 points
NY Islanders
Brock Nelson, 75 points
Mat Barzal, 51 points
Anders Lee, 50 points
Noah Dobson, 49 points
J-G Pageau, 40 points
X-Factor
The story here is the Hurricanes’ lack of finishing touch sans Svechnikov. The big Russian is not a Hart Trophy candidate but gave Carolina someone other than Aho who can find the net. Since Svechnikov tore his ACL, the Hurricanes have turned to a drizzle on offense.
In their 18 games since the March 11 injury, the Canes’ 2.72 goals per game are the seventh-worst in the NHL. Losing Svechnikov exacerbated an already existent lack of cutting-edge.
On the season, the Hurricanes have dominated the puck. No team has faced fewer shots, blocked fewer shots, or outshot their opponents by a greater margin. Their nine shutouts also lead the league. If a team visits Raleigh, they must prepare to play without possession.
Given those stats, Carolina should be blowing the doors off teams night in and night out. Instead, their offense is just 15th in scoring thanks to a seventh-worst 9.2 team shooting percentage and bottom-half power play. The opportunities are there, but the Hurricanes have not seized them. That is a dangerous game to play against a defense as stout as the New York’s.
The Islanders have blocked the fifth-most shots in the league, and when pucks do get through, a top-five goalie on the planet is there to greet them in the person of Ilya Sorokin. A tight, ugly game suits New York perfectly. They are five-deep on defense with legitimate top-four options (six if Alexander Romanov returns), and they boast one of the league’s most tireless checking lines in Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin.
If the Hurricanes cannot create and convert on high-quality scoring chances, they will play right into the hands of Lambert’s outfit.
Offense
Carolina’s puck possession has the potential to make teams miserable for 60 minutes, but as far as scoring goes, see above. Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty, who re-tore his right Achilles in a truly disappointing moment, would have done wonders to tie this team’s attack together; they are not around, and Brind’Amour will have to make it work with what he has.
Though Aho’s 36 goals pace the team by a country mile, he is hardly alone on the ice. Martin Necas’s breakout year saw him finish the year with 28 goals and 71 points to lead the club, while 38-year-old Brent Burns collected 61 points of his own and is (almost) as dangerous as ever.
Outside of those eye-catchers, the Hurricanes have disappointed compared to their 2021-2022 vintage, which scored 15 more goals than this year’s 262 to finish ninth in scoring. That team had five 20-goal scorers. Without Svechnikov, this one has exactly two: Necas and Aho.
The Hurricanes are still deep, but whether it is Jesperi Kotkaniemi (18G, 43P), Teuvo Teravainen (37P in 68GP), or 21-year-old Seth Jarvis (14G, 39P), at least one role player is going to have to step up to relieve the pressure on Carolina’s stars.
For the Islanders, if the X-Factor section suggested that they are a defense-first team, it understated the case. They struggled on the offensive end, and if not for Brock Nelson, this section would be about Pittsburgh. In 2022-2023, New York’s 242 goals were the 11th fewest in the NHL. That is owed mainly to a power play that has found the net just 15.8 percent of the time on the season and an even more appalling 12.7 percent in 2023, good for third and second worst in the league, respectively.
Luckily for the Isles, Mat Barzal is back for the first time since Feb. 18. The British Columbia native is one of the league’s best stick handlers and passers; his presence will immediately invigorate the team’s power play and, hopefully, jumpstart Bo Horvat.
The former Vancouver captain has scuffled since arriving in Long Island, with just 16 points in 29 games, but Barzal’s playmaking is tailor-made for Horvat’s shoot-first mentality. It does not hurt that Horvat’s last trip to the playoffs saw him score 10 goals in 17 games, or that he has only improved since.
Elsewhere, captain Anders Lee (28G) and Kyle Palmieri (33P in 55GP ) are veterans who know how to find the back of the net. In the bottom-six forwards, New York could boast a pair of secret weapons in Zach Parise, who has been scoring in the postseason since George W. Bush was president, and diminutive center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has an impressive 40 points in 76 playoff appearances.
Defense
The Hurricanes boasted the league’s second-best defense, but not because of anything they did in their own zone. It is hard to score without the puck, and Brind’Amour’s outfit does not lose the puck; when they do, it is not for long, thus their absurd shots against statistics. Carolina’s defensive dominance and 84.4 percent penalty kill (also second) come despite a fairly average .907 team save percentage. They are just that good on the open ice.
As far as personnel goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Though Hurricanes have let Tony DeAngelo, Ethan Bear, and Dougie Hamilton walk in recent seasons, in Burns, deadline acquisition Shayne Gostisbehere, and Brady Skjei, they still have a host of fast, dangerous puck movers. Given the offense’s recent struggles, that trio’s attacking punch matters more than ever.
On the home front, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce keep things quiet and break up moves. Having bottom-six forwards as savvy as captain Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook, and Paul Stastny does not hurt.
The Islanders also can claim a top-five defense but for opposite reasons. Once they claim a lead, Lambert’s men will block shots, trap forwards on the half boards, and become nearly impossible to solve.
That is a matter of skill just as much as playstyle; the Islanders are every bit as deep as Carolina on defense. Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech have reunited as a do-it-all, world-beating top pair, Scott Mayfield is a big, stay-at-home blueliner who can slide up and down the lineup, and Noah Dobson (13G, 49P) quarterbacks plenty of offense from the point. Even the lesser Sebastian Aho is confident with the puck on his stick.
The real question for New York is Sam Bolduc, who is pressed into service for Romanov after just 17 games of NHL experience. With teammates like these, as well as shutdown forwards Pageau and Cizikas, it should not matter.
Goaltending
At last, a clear victor. Though the Hurricanes do not have any one Sorokin-level shotstopper, they played a trio of competent netminders this season. At one point, it seemed 23-year-old Pyotr Kochetov might seize the net in PNC Arena, but a cold spell that precipitated the return of veteran Antti Raanta saw him return to the AHL. As is, Brind’Amour has to choose between Raanta and Andersen; that is not as easy as it sounds.
Though Andersen has a bigger name, more playoff experience, and an impressive 2.48 GAA, he is not the Freddie Andersen of 2021. The big Dane has been hit by injuries and has only stopped a pedestrian .903 percent of shots. Raanta, meanwhile, is the man in form in Carolina’s cage and has allowed just 2.23 goals per game while stopping .910 of shots.
Andersen started a key contest against Florida to end the season and has already faced the Islanders three times this year; as such, he is likely to start Game 1. If he stumbles out of the gates, though, Brind’Amour will not feel he owes him any slack in a series this big.
For the Islanders, there are no such conundrums. Semyon Varlomov is a great veteran backup, but this is Ilya Sorokin’s net. The Russian is second in appearances (64), five in goals-against average (2.34), and third in save percentage (.924). Remarkably, those lofty numbers almost exactly match his career averages. Sorokin will already feel that he is the best in the world, and there is no greater coming out party for a goaltender than an underdog playoff series.
Injuries
Though the absences of Pacioretty and, to a greater extent, Svechnikov no doubt change the prognosis for Carolina’s Cup chances, they are not battling any new injuries.
For the Islanders, the big-hitting Romanov could return this series. Elsewhere, they have been without Oliver Wahlstrom, who was enjoying a strong year, since December.
Intangibles
The pressure cooker that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs is turned all the way up for the Hurricanes. Despite their pile of 100-point finishes, they have yet to replicate the Conference Final run of Brind’Amour’s rookie season. There are murmurs that their balanced attack does not constitute “playoff hockey.”
The pressure of those doubts, combined with the lofty task of breaking out of a month-long funk that almost cost them the division, makes this a uniquely intense first-round matchup for the Hurricanes.
For the Islanders, the effect of the playoff atmosphere will be the opposite. This group was tailor-made by Lamoriello for low-scoring, physical spring hockey to the extent that it has been criticized for its conservativeness. Though the Isles watched last year’s playoffs from home, this team knows the drill. Lambert (as an assistant), Lee, Pulock, and countless other Islanders were key contributors to back-to-back conference finalists from 2019-2021. Add in a matchup against a purportedly better team that cannot score, and this New York team will feel as though it is playing with house money.
Series Prediction
The Hurricanes’ quality will tell in a strong opening statement, and they should win at least the first of their two-game homestand. They are riding high from their de facto title win over Florida and have no reason to fear New York …yet.
Once Carolina’s scoring doubts bare their ugly head, things will unravel quickly. Their discouragement at being unable to solve the Islanders’ uniquely unattractive brand of hockey will only embolden the underdogs, led by an invincible Sorokin.
The Islanders will storm back and snuff out the Metropolitan champs before they can stretch the series to seven.
Islanders in six games.
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