Colorado Avalanche vs. Edmonton Oilers: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Colorado Avalanche: 1^st Central Division, defeated Nashville 4-0 in first round, defeated St. Louis 4-2 in second round

Edmonton Oilers: 2^nd Pacific Division, defeated Los Angeles 4-3 in first round, defeated Calgary 4-1 in second round

Schedule (ET)

Tuesday, May 31, 8 p.m.: Edmonton at Colorado (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Thursday, June 2, 8 p.m.: Edmonton at Colorado (TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports)
Saturday, June 4, 8 p.m.: Colorado at Edmonton (Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports, TNT)
Monday, June 6, 8 p.m.: Colorado at Edmonton (Sportsnet, CBC, TVA Sports, TNT)
*Wednesday, June 8, TBD: Edmonton at Colorado (TBD)
*Friday, June 10, TBD: Colorado at Edmonton (TBD)
*Sunday, June 12, TBD: Edmonton at Colorado (TBD)

The Skinny

Did someone say fireworks? Oh my, two of the greatest, most dynamic players in the world, both engines of their respective teams, Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado and Connor McDavid in Edmonton, both first overall draft picks, squaring off for the first time in their respective playoff histories. Both have been waiting for this opportunity at post-season glory since breaking into the league. Only one will move on to the Stanley Cup final (he says, stating the obvious). But that’s just the beginning of the myriad storylines that should make this a compelling must-watch series that features the two highest scoring teams in this playoff year with both averaging more than four goals per game. The Oilers, after some early hiccups against Los Angeles including falling behind 3-2 in their opening-round series, have been rock solid and have won six of their last seven games, including closing out what was a new classic in the pantheon of Battle of Albertas on, you guessed it, a McDavid overtime goal in Game 5. The Avs, meanwhile, have not been really tested at all in these playoffs after sweeping the Preds and then dumping a Blues team that was without starting netminder Jordan Binnington for the latter half of their series in six games. The Avs have yet to trail in a series this playoff year.

Head To Head

Colorado: 2-1-0

Edmonton: 1-0-2

Ancient history, but for history buffs, the Oilers hammered the Avs 6-3 late in the regular season and the Avs won two games in post-regulation (one via shootout, one in overtime). Did we mention ancient history?

Top Five Scorers (through Round 2)

Colorado

Nathan MacKinnon: 13 points

Cale Makar: 13 points

Gabriel Landeskog: 11 points

Mikko Rantanen: 11 points

Nazem Kadri: 10 points

Edmonton

Leon Draisaitl: 26 points

Connor McDavid: 26 points

Evander Kane: 15 points

Zach Hyman: 12 points

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 11 points

X-Factor

How about X-Factors, plural? As in, how do you game plan for not just one but two superstars who simply continue to get better and better in McDavid and Leon Draisaitl? The latter has, if it’s possible, been under the radar thanks to McDavid, even though Draisaitl’s 26 points are as many or more than the top scorer in the entire playoffs in eight seasons since 2004. Taken individually, they represent a monstrous challenge for an opposing coaching staff, but since being reunited on the same line in large part because Draisaitl has been nursing what is believed to be a high-ankle injury, they have proven to be an unstoppable force. We’ll get to the depth in a moment but we found it amusing that the Flames’ mantra seemed to be that they were being beaten by one guy even though, the way Draisaitl and McDavid are playing as a tandem, they really can win a series on their own.

Offense

It’s interesting that it wasn’t until late in the Blues series that MacKinnon really seemed to get going as he was often matched up against the Blues’ superlative two-way center Ryan O’Reilly. MacKinnon recorded a hat-trick as part of a four-point night in Game 5 which included a highlight-reel end to end rush and goal that should have been the game-winner but ended up being a footnote in a Blues’ overtime win. Those were the only goals MacKinnon scored in the series. It will be interesting to see how Woodcroft chooses to play this matchup. Against Calgary he and counterpart Darryl Sutter seemed content to let the McDavid/Draisaitl/Evander Kane unit play against the Flames’ big line of Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm. It turned out to be a colossal mismatch in favor of the Oilers. Will Jared Bednar, who will have last change in Games 1 and 2, try and free MacKinnon, captain Gabriel Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen up from McDavid? This series figures to be a last-shot-wins type of affair given the firepower, and so the ability of both teams to continue to get production from up and down the lineup will be critical. We saw the Avs flex their depth muscles against the Blues with Darren Helm scoring the series-clincher with seconds left in regulation in Game 6, and with Logan O’Connor, Andrew Cogliano and J.T. Compher, who scored twice in Game 6, all chipping in with timely goals in the second round. Of course offense for the Avs isn’t just a forward thing, not with Norris Trophy finalist Cale Makar jumping into the rush and creating all kinds of havoc in the offensive zone, as his 13 points suggest.

Every night has been a skill clinic when McDavid and Draisaitl have been on the ice. Between McDavid darting into impossibly tight spaces in the offensive zone and unleashing an equally impossibly quick shot and Draisaitl finding passing lanes where there appear to be only defenders, the Oilers have been difficult to handle to say the least. Draisaitl seemed to get stronger and stronger as the Calgary series went on in spite of his ankle issues and finished with 11 points in his last three games in the series including two four-pointers, one of which was in the deciding fifth game. Would Woodcroft at some point move Draisaitl back to center to match the Avs’ potent one-two punch up front where Nazem Kadri has been centering Mikko Rantanen and Valeri Nichushkin? Like the Avs, who have the top-ranked power play through two rounds in the playoffs, the Oilers are dynamite with the man advantage. And like the Avs, the Oilers have seen some of their lesser known depth players step into the fray, which will be critical in this series. We’ve been especially impressed with Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod, who is centering the team’s third line. It’ll be imperative that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, playing mostly with Zach Hyman and Jesse Puljujarvi, continues to chip in, although Hyman has also been effective playing with McDavid as Woodcroft occasionally swapped Hyman for Kane on the top line. While the Avs’ back-end offense comes almost exclusively from Makar with Sam Girard out with injury since early in the St. Louis series, the Oilers have gotten goals from five different defenders and Evan Bouchard is emerging as a go-to guy on the back end on the power play.

Defense

A year ago in the second round, the smallish Colorado defense, missing veteran Erik Johnson, was overwhelmed by the Vegas Golden Knights and their relentless forecheck. This is a different Avs team that has advanced to the conference final for the first time since 2002. Johnson, an emotional ballast for the team, is back playing strong third-pair minutes with youngster Bowen Byram. Devon Toews, stolen from the New York Islanders, is in his second playoff season with the Avs and has become a dynamic fit with Makar as the top pairing, while Josh Manson, added at the trade deadline from Anaheim, has fit seamlessly. It was a Manson block during a St. Louis power play in Game 6 that might have been the most critical play of that game, preventing the Blues from taking a 3-1 lead late in the second period and potentially forcing a Game 7. Manson, who also delivered the overtime game-winner in Game 1 against the Blues, has been playing with veteran Jack Johnson, who was pressed into service when Gerard suffered a broken sternum in Game 3 versus St. Louis.

Like the Avs, Edmonton has benefitted from a trade deadline add on the back end as Brett Kulak has been excellent solidifying a third defensive pairing with Duncan Keith. Unlike the Avs, where Makar dominates ice time, with Darnell Nurse still nursing a lower-body injury the ice time has been more evenly distributed among the Edmonton defenders. The Oilers have taken on a kind of defense-by-committee look in these playoffs with Nurse’s ice time limited compared to his horse-like status during the regular season. And while there has been plenty of criticism from the get-go of the Oilers’ addition of veteran Keith, the future Hall of Famer and two-time Norris Trophy winner (and playoff MVP in 2015) was excellent for the most part against Calgary. After getting scalded for nine goals in Game 1 versus Calgary, the Oilers held a deep, talented Flames team to 11 goals in the final four games of that series. Still, one has to like the Avs’ blue line as a significant edge in this series, although the extra time between series may give Nurse (and Draisaitl for that matter) time to heal a little further.

Goaltending

So, this is where things get interesting. Mike Smith is returning to the conference final for the first time since 2012, and while there have been absolutely wild swings in Smith’s game, including a couple of blooper reel goals against, he has also channeled his inner Grant Fuhr, managing to hold the fort when absolutely necessary. The challenge for Smith is to replicate those timely saves and to reduce if not eliminate the critical misplays with the puck against the best offensive team he and the Oilers have or are likely to face in the playoffs. At the other end of the ice, Darcy Kuemper has never played in the conference final and has frankly not been overly tested in these playoffs. He’s faced roughly half the number of shots Smith has faced and Kuemper’s .904 save percentage suggests there remains just a hint of concern about whether he can deliver the goods when the heat gets turned up. And he’s going to face heat like he’s not yet faced. If Smith gets the better of this battle, then the Oilers have a real shot at upsetting the Avs.

Injuries

Girard’s injury was a season-ender. He won’t suit up for the Avs again until 2022-23. The Oilers have multiple guys playing hurt but no injuries bad enough to keep them in the press box at this time.

Intangibles

They won’t exactly square off against each other as Nazem Kadri is a center and Evander Kane is a winger, but both are writing their own redemption stories this post-season. Kadri, of course, has been suspended three times in recent years in the playoffs, including last season when he was banished for eight games for a check on Justin Faulk of St. Louis in the first round. But Kadri has been an exemplary citizen this playoff year even though he was involved in a collision with Blues netminder Jordan Binnington in Game 3 that sent Binnington to the sidelines for the rest of the series. The hit prompted an outpouring of racial abuse and threats that required the involvement of St. Louis police and the NHL. Kadri responded with a hat-trick and Game 3 proved to be a turning point in the series. Kane, on the other hand, was jettisoned by the San Jose Sharks this season and the Oilers, desperate to add punch and grit to their top six, signed Kane for the balance of the season. In spite of a checkered past that includes an admitted gambling addiction, a tempestuous relationship with his ex-wife and with many teammates, Kane has been likewise a good citizen for the Oilers not to mention an offensive dynamo with a league-best 12 playoff goals including two game-winners. Only one will get a chance to write the complete redemption piece with a shot at a Stanley Cup, and it’s fair to suggest they both have the wherewithal to be deciding factors in this series. Other tidbits? The Avalanche are 5-0 on the road this playoff season and the Oilers are 4-2 away from Rogers Place, so don’t expect home ice and all that comes with it to mean all that much.

CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION

The Avalanche are the favorite and have arguably been the Stanley Cup favorite all season. That doesn’t mean this is an easy series pick, though. The Oilers have discovered some magic, and there’s no telling how far their star power can carry them. We expect them to push Colorado – hard, even if it’s not quite enough in the end. Avalanche in 7.

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