Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Colorado Avalanche: 1st Central Division, 115 points
Nashville Predators: 5th Central Division, 97 points
Schedule (ET)
Tuesday, May 3: Predators at Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN, SNE, SN360 (JIP), TVA Sports)
Thursday, May 5: Predators at Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. (TNT, SNE, SN360 (JIP), TVA Sports)
Saturday, May 7: Avalanche at Predators, 4:30 p.m. (TNT, Sportsnet, TVA Sports)
Monday, May 9: Avalanche at Predators, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN, SN1, TVA Sports)
*Wednesday, May 11: Predators at Avalanche, TBD
*Friday, May 13: Avalanche at Predators, TBD
*Sunday, May 15: Predators at Avalanche, TBD
The Skinny
The battle between these Central Division foes came right down to the wire with the series being decided in the last day of the regular season. The Avalanche come in as one of the best teams in the NHL and the odds-on favourite to win the Stanley Cup, according to PointsBet Canada. It should come as no surprise either. They’re loaded up in all areas of the ice featuring offensive wizards in Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, while Cale Makar and Devon Toews have been a tremendous 1-2 punch on the back end. In net, Darcy Kuemper has had a tremendous season, and how can you not feel confident in Pavel Francouz as the backup? The Avs have struggled to get over the hump in the playoffs and now will look to do so with their fifth straight appearance in the post-season. The Predators, meanwhile, enter the post-season with their goaltending situation looming large over top of them. What’s the status of Juuse Saros (lower body)? Will he be able to dress in the series? He’s had a season that should have him in the Vezina Trophy conversation and things will look quite different for Nashville if he isn’t able to play. Roman Josi has had one of the best seasons by a defenseman in the last two decades, so he will surely be a key part of the Predators’ game. Nashville as a whole has been a tough, gritty team to play against all year, so the Avs will have their work cut out for them.
Head to Head
Colorado: 1-1-2
Nashville: 3-1
These two clubs met four times this year with the Predators more than holding their own. After the Avs took Game 1 in November, Nashville roared back with 5-2, 5-4 and 5-4 wins. Those last two took extra frames to do so, too. If it’s any indication of what we will see in the playoffs, these games should be tight and competitive all series long. Again, Saros’ availability is going to be a major determining factor in how this series goes.
Top Five Scorers
Colorado
Mikko Rantanen: 92 points
Nathan MacKinnon: 88 points (65 GP)
Nazem Kadri: 87 points
Cale Makar: 86 points
Andre Burakovsky: 61 points
Nashville Predators
Roman Josi: 96 points
Matt Duchene: 86 points
Filip Forsberg: 84 points
Mikael Granlund: 64 points
Ryan Johansen: 63 points
X-Factor
Goaltending. If Saros was healthy, Predators would have a chance of taking this matchup deep. Because he is iffy at best to play in Round 1, this one could be over sooner than later. But another potential X-factor in this series could be the defensemen. We’re going to get a chance to watch two of the best in the league – Makar and Josi – go head-to-head in a first-round matchup. Both scored over a point per game this year and are the top-two Norris Trophy candidates this season. Which way the voters go will be interesting to see. Even beyond these two, there are some very good defensemen on both sides. Colorado boasts guys like Samuel Girard, Bowen Byram and Josh Manson, while the Preds have strong options in Alexandre Carrier, Mattias Ekholm and Dante Fabbro, too.
Offense
The offense in this series will be a blast to watch. It goes without saying how potent the Avs are. They scored the fourth-most goals this year in thanks to the big three – MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar – all producing at superstar levels. But truth be told, it runs deeper than just them. Nazem Kadri had a breakout campaign offensively, scoring 28-58-87, putting up 26 more points this year than his previous career-high. Andre Burakovsky, Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews and Valeri Nichuskin all scored more than 50 points, too. Colorado can bring it up and down its lineup.
The Predators, meanwhile, have some high-end offensive firepower in their own right. Josi has helped lead that charge, but a resurgent season from Matt Duchene and another great year from Filip Forsberg have helped too. For Duchene, his season seemingly came out of nowhere. After averaging 0.38 points per game in the 2020-21 season, he blew the doors off, averaging more than a point per game for the first time in his career this season. Forsberg, too, had a career year with 20 points more than his previous season-high.
Defense
We’ve already touched on the deep defenses of both teams here, even going so far as highlighting it as a potential X-factor in the series. Makar and Josi will lead the way, respectively, but it’s hard to argue against the depth both teams have on their back ends. Toews, Girard and Byram all are dynamic defensive playmakers, while the deadline addition of Josh Manson has been a good one for the Avs. They’ll look to him, and you can’t discredit the importance of Erik Johnson on the back end, either. He’s been a machine back there and has done a solid job suppressing opposing teams’ offense. Look for his veteran leadership to help, too. Carrier and Ekholm, meanwhile, have been strong complementary rearguards this season in Nashville, both scoring over 25 points. Dante Fabbro has had a breakout season at the age of 23, while Mark Boroweicki is physically imposing on the backend.
Goaltending
If you’re the Avalanche, it’s hard to argue against anything their tandem of Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz has done all year long. The former has posted a 37-12-4 record, a .921 save percentage, a 2.54 GAA all while the saving 25.1 goals above average. Francouz, meanwhile, has been almost as good: 15-5-1 record, .916 save percentage, 2.55 GAA and 5.5 goals saved above expected. As good as the Avalanche have been up front this season, two great goaltenders have helped push them along in a big way. If the Avs go on a deep run, a lot of it will have to do with the play of Kuemper.
Nashville, meanwhile, well… they’re in a tough spot. It’s unknown at this point when Saros will be able to play. He posted a 38-25-3 record, a .918 save percentage, and 2.64 GAA while saving 22.9 goals above average. He’s irreplaceable. It’s yet to be known if David Rittich, or Connor Ingram would go as the starter if Saros can’t. Both have struggled in their NHL action this season, but Ingram had a tremendous season at the AHL level.
Injuries
Have we mentioned Saros yet? Moving on. The only other injury for the Predators heading into the playoffs is that to defenseman Jeremy Lauzon, who is week-to-week with a lower-body injury.
For the Avalanche, Gabriel Landeskog is working back from knee surgery and signs are pointing toward him being ready to go. This was the plan from the onset of his surgery back in mid-March. Defenseman Ryan Murray is out with a fractured hand, and his availability is not known.
Intangibles
As potent as the Avalanche are, it’s hard not to see the intangibles the Predators bring. They play a physical, in-your-face type of game and aren’t shy about dropping the mitts, either. In fact, the Predators lead the league in fights by a substantial margin. They’ve fought 60 times this year, a whole 24 more than the second-placed Anaheim Ducks, with 36. Rookie Tanner Jeannot, with 14, has scrapped more than any other player in the league this season. Teammate Mark Borowiecki is a not-so-distant second with 13 on the season. It’s been a sort of rallying point for this gritty team.
On the other hand? The Avalanche have the makeup of a team ready for a deep run in the playoffs as they finally look to break through the second round.
CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION
This series is an obvious mismatch, especially if Saros can’t play. The Predators are feisty enough to steal a game, but they’re not in Colorado’s league. Avalanche in 5.
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