Colorado Avalanche vs. Seattle Kraken: 2023 Stanley Cup Playoff series preview and pick

Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado Avalanche: 1^st in Central Division, 109 points

Seattle Kraken: 4^th in Pacific Division, 100 points

Schedule (ET)

Tuesday, April 18: Seattle at Colorado, 10:00 p.m.
Thursday, April 20: Seattle at Colorado, 9:30 p.m.
Saturday, April 22: Colorado at Seattle, 10:00 p.m.
Monday, April 24: Colorado at Seattle, 10:00 p.m.
*Wednesday, April 26: Seattle at Colorado, TBA
*Friday, April 28: Colorado at Seattle, TBA
*Sunday, April 30: Seattle at Colorado, TBA

*If necessary

The Skinny

We won’t beat around the bush: Colorado and Seattle aren’t exactly storied rivals. There’s no “Miracle on Manchester” to go back upon with these two teams. While the Avalanche are the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Kraken have never appeared in a single playoff game. That’ll change this week, with the NHL’s newest team going up against one of its best.

If you’ll recall, the 2018 Vegas Golden Knights made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in their first season after the Expansion Draft. The Kraken weren’t nearly as successful in their inaugural campaign, but they managed to follow it up with a commendable (if streaky) sophomore effort. We’ll see if they can one-up the Golden Knights this time around.

Head to Head

Colorado: 1-1-1

Seattle: 2-0-1

The Avalanche recorded their lone victory against the Kraken this season on Jan. 21, with Nathan MacKinnon scoring the shootout winner in a 2–1 game at Climate Pledge Arena.

Otherwise, it was all Seattle. The Kraken beat the Avs in both of their trips to Ball Arena in Denver during the regular season, prevailing in regulation on Oct. 21 and in overtime on March 5. They won both games by a 3–2 score, with Karson Kuhlman (now of the Winnipeg Jets) and Yanni Gourde tallying the winning goals.

Top Five Scorers

Colorado

Nathan MacKinnon, 111 points
Mikko Rantanen, 105 points
Cale Makar, 66 points
J.T. Compher, 52 points
Artturi Lehkonen, 51 points

Seattle

Jared McCann, 70 points
Vince Dunn, 64 points
Jordan Eberle, 63 points
Matty Beniers, 57 points
Yanni Gourde, 48 points

X-Factor

Championship experience. Naturally, the Avalanche are absolutely loaded with it, given their status as the reigning Stanley Cup champs. Sure, they’re without team captain Gabriel Landeskog this time around, but just take one look up and down that roster and you’ll find more than a dozen returning members of last year’s championship team.

Coach Jared Bednar knows full well what it takes to lead a team to the promised land. MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, Erik Johnson, and Val Nichushkin do, too. But then again, the Kraken have a few former champions of their own, and they’re more than capable of pulling their respective weights. Jaden Schwartz, Yanni Gourde, Vince Dunn, and Justin Schultz all bring rings into the equation, as does the injured Andre Burakovsky. And don’t forget Jordan Eberle’s international pedigree …

Offense

Jared McCann is a 40-goal scorer. Remember when the Pittsburgh Penguins traded him for what seemed like nothing? That’s still better than what the Toronto Maple Leafs did, which was to give him up to Seattle for literally nothing in the 2021 Expansion Draft. It’s hard to fathom why McCann bounced around so much before he finally arrived in the Pacific Northwest (again — the Vancouver Canucks originally drafted him before inexplicably trading him for Erik Gudbranson). But the Kraken are undoubtedly happy to have the 26-year-old center on their side, having signed him long-term at a $5 million AAV right before his breakout 2022–23 season.

The Kraken might not have the same elite talent as their playoff opponents, but they have considerable depth at all three forward positions. Just list ’em off: Eberle, Schwartz, and Gourde all have strong reputations as big-game performers. Matty Beniers is an excellent young center who should win the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. Waiver claims Daniel Sprong and Eeli Tolvanen have provided outstanding offense since joining the team for no acquisition cost. Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brandon Tanev, Ryan Donato, Morgan Geekie, and Alex Wennberg are all effective role players. And that’s not even mentioning Burakovsky, who could very well tip the series in Seattle’s favor if he returns at an opportune time.

The Avs are pretty much always going to be a dangerous offensive team in the playoffs, even without their captain. MacKinnon and Rantanen both surpassed 100 points during the regular season, with the latter passing Joe Sakic to set a new club record with 55 goals. That’s not easy to do. But this year’s Colorado team certainly doesn’t have the depth of last year’s. They’re down three of their top six scorers from the 2021–22 regular season, with Burakovsky and Nazem Kadri both leaving the team for big payouts in unrestricted free agency. They managed to coax Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen to stay, but will it be enough?

Owing to cap constraints, the Avs filled most of their gaps with internal replacements, meaning it’s now time for the likes of J.T. Compher, Alex Newhook, and Logan O’Connor to put up or shut up. They’re also counting on more recent acquisitions Evan Rodrigues and Denis Malgin to build upon the promise they showed in the regular season. Lehkonen has gone from being a secondary piece on last year’s team to a primary driver this time around. What the Avs have might be enough to get past the Kraken, but it might be a little tougher for them to, say, sweep the Edmonton Oilers this spring. They’ll just have to take it one series at a time.

Defense

Cale Makar might be the best defenseman in the game. He certainly looked the part last spring, when he scored 29 points in 20 playoff games and averaged 27:04 per night on the way to the Stanley Cup. If he’s 100 percent healthy for Game 1, the Avalanche might end up being too much for the Kraken to handle on that basis alone. Makar is one of the top players in the world at any position.

Even beyond the 24-year-old Makar, the Avalanche are blessed with a vast reservoir of defensive talent. Devon Toews is as good a No. 2 defenseman as there is in the National Hockey League, and he helps form what might be the best pairing in hockey with Makar when they’re both in the lineup. Bowen Byram, Josh Manson, and Erik Johnson have all dealt with injuries at various points this season, but they’re returning members of the Stanley Cup team who are all more than capable of positively influencing play. Oh, and that’s not even mentioning Sam Girard, who casually set career highs in goals and points this year — and even though it feels like he’s been around forever, Girard is still just 24.

When everyone is healthy, Colorado has one of the strongest defensive groups in the league. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Avalanche conceded the eighth-fewest expected goals in the NHL during 5-on-5 play this past season — and the Kraken allowed the fifth-fewest. That’s right: Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, and Justin Schultz did that.

Dunn is set to command a huge raise as a restricted free agent this summer after exploding for 14 goals and 64 points in 81 games this season. After being claimed from the St. Louis Blues in the 2021 Expansion Draft, Dunn emerged as a bona fide top-four option in his first season in Seattle before taking another few steps forward this year. He and Adam Larsson have formed a formidable top pair for this Kraken team all season long. But beyond that duo, Dave Hakstol’s coaching staff has elected to run things largely by committee, with no other defenders averaging 20 minutes per night this season. Unless Carson Soucy and Will Borgen can elevate their games to levels previously thought impossible, there’s not nearly as much potential with this Kraken defensive group as there is in Colorado — but, as a unit, they’ve undeniably proven their effectiveness in the regular season. The playoffs are a completely different animal.

Goaltending

The Avs should have a pretty good book on Seattle’s presumptive Game 1 starter. Philipp Grubauer spent three seasons playing with MacKinnon and Co. in Colorado between 2018 and 2021 before signing a massive six-year deal with Seattle as an unrestricted free agent. And even though the German keeper hasn’t exactly lived up to his $5.9 million cap hit through his first two years with the Kraken, he’s entering the playoffs on a bit of a high note — he went 3–1–0 with a .941 save percentage over his last five appearances of the 2022–23 regular season.

Grubauer also won the Stanley Cup as Braden Holtby’s backup with the Washington Capitals in 2018, although he only appeared in two games during that particular championship run. He doesn’t exactly have the luxury of playing behind an Ovechkin or MacKinnon-type superstar in Seattle. If the Kraken want to get out of the first round, Grubauer will need to rediscover the form that got him paid in the first place. Of course, they may turn to Martin Jones instead if he’s healthy enough to play after a late-season hand injury. He started 42 games this season and won 27 games despite a sub-.900 save percentage. If those two falter, there’s Chris Driedger, or Joey Daccord, and none of those is a perfect option.

Of course, if last year’s Avs proved anything, it’s that you don’t necessarily need the best goaltender in the world to win the Cup if the rest of your team is good enough. Darcy Kuemper is terrific when healthy, which he decidedly was not during Colorado’s run to glory last spring. After letting Kuemper walk in unrestricted free agency, the Avalanche elected to bring in former New York Rangers backup Alexandar Georgiev to take over in their crease. Georgiev responded with a strong .919 save percentage in 62 games this past season, and the Avs still have the ever-reliable Pavel Francouz at their disposal if things go sour at any point. This is a position where Colorado clearly has the upper hand over its opponent.

Injuries

This tweet from Avalanche TV host Kyle Keefe pretty effectively sums up what the defending champs have dealt with on the injury front this season:

Games missed this season by players that won the Stanley Cup last season with the #Avs:
-Landeskog 82
-Nichushkin 29
-Lehkonen 18
-Makar 22
-Cogliano 3
-Byram 40
-Manson 45
-EJ 19
-MacKinnon 11
-Girard 6
-Helm 71

Time to recognize how good @BednarJared really is.

— Kyle Keefe (@kylekeefetv) April 15, 2023

Landeskog won’t be back this year. That’s 11 goals from last year’s playoff run gone, right there — but the Avs have dealt with his absence all season long. What’s a little more concerning is the health of Makar and Darren Helm, both of whom last played on April 1. Makar, Helm, and Manson (out since March 1) have all been skating recently while recovering from stints on the injured list, but it’s still unclear whether any of them will be ready to go in time for Game 1.

The most notable absence for Seattle is Andre Burakovsky, who has been out of the lineup since Feb. 7 while recovering from a lower-body injury. The Kraken announced last week that Burakovsky will miss the start of the playoffs after undergoing a surgical procedure to address the nagging issue. Beyond that, the Kraken are relatively healthy, although Joonas Donskoi remains out after missing the entire regular season while dealing with the effects of a concussion.

Intangibles

This is a battle of two of the best goal songs in the NHL.

In the blue corner: Nirvana’s “Lithiu,m, feat. a little help from the Kraken crowd …

And in the red, er, maroon corner: Italian dance music!

Series prediction

It’s easy to underestimate this year’s Kraken team. They haven’t been there before, even if some of their players have. But they have good players at nearly every position — and a rowdy fanbase inside an iconic building, to boot. It won’t be easy for any team to play postseason games at Climate Pledge Arena, not even the reigning Stanley Cup champions.

The Avalanche are without their captain. The status of their top defender is uncertain. But they’ve dealt with a rash of injuries all season long and still ended up atop the Central Division with 51 wins in 82 games. They didn’t exactly win the Cup by accident last year. For that reason, we’re not going to bet against the Avs … yet. But that doesn’t mean we don’t think the Kraken will give them a solid scare. Even if this series doesn’t go the distance, it’ll be a feisty one.

Avalanche in six games.

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