Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: 2022 Stanley Cup Final preview and pick

Colorado Avalanche: 1^st Central Division, Defeated Nashville 4-0 in first round, St. Louis 4-2 in second round, Edmonton 4-0 in third round

Tampa Bay Lightning: 3^rd Atlantic Division, Defeated Toronto 4-3 in first round, Florida 4-0 in second round, New York Rangers 4-2 in third round

Schedule (ET)

Game 1: Wednesday, June 15, 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado
Game 2: Saturday, June 18, 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado
Game 3: Monday, June 20, 8 p.m. Colorado at Tampa Bay
Game 4: Wednesday, June 22, 8 p.m. Colorado at Tampa Bay
*Game 5: Friday, June 24, 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado
*Game 6: Sunday, June 26, 8 p.m. Colorado at Tampa Bay
*Game 7: Tuesday, June 28 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado

Per the NHL’s release: “Every game in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final will start at 8 p.m. ET and will be available on ABC, ESPN+ and the ESPN app in the U.S. In Canada, every game will be available on Sportsnet, CBC and TVA Sports.”

The Skinny

So, maybe after all this, after all the COVID stuff and the bubble playoffs and the lost Olympics and, well, everything, this is the Stanley Cup Final we deserve. It’s certainly the Stanley Cup Final the Colorado Avalanche and the Tampa Bay Lightning deserve. No question the two best teams in the playoffs are meeting in the final showdown. It doesn’t often happen that way. In fact, rarely. So this should be a treat. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions standing on the precipice of a dynasty led by a bevy of future Hall of Famers including captain Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy and an Avalanche team led by rising superstar Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon that is 12-2 this spring and 7-0 on the road and almost perfectly built for this moment and, frankly, almost perfectly built to take the crown away from the Lightning. Bring it on.

Head To Head

Colorado 2-0-0

Tampa Bay 0-1-1

Colorado defeated the Bolts in a shootout in Tampa in October and then won 3-2 at home in February. Ancient history.

Top Five Scorers

Colorado

Cale Makar: 22 points

Nathan MacKinnon: 18 points

Gabriel Landeskog: 17 points

Mikko Rantanen: 17 points

Nazem Kadri: 14 points

Tampa Bay

Nikita Kucherov: 23 points

Ondrej Palat: 16 points

Steven Stamkos: 15 points

Victor Hedman: 14 points

Corey Perry/Ross Colton: 8 points

X-Factor

Both teams come in relatively fresh as the Lightning cruised through Florida in four games in the second round and then dusted the Rangers with four straight wins after dropping Games 1 and 2 at Madison Square Garden. The Avs did it the other way, knocking off St. Louis in six in the second round and then sweeping Edmonton in the conference final. The rust factor will be a bit more pronounced for Colorado, although opening at home in the final for the first time since 2001 should help mitigate any effects of a week-plus layoff. Still, Tampa had a long hiatus between rounds and looked off in the first two games of the east final, so it’s a real thing. Pretty sure the three days off for Tampa before Game 1 on Denver Wednesday will be about perfect for rest but not rust.

Still, for me, the biggest intangible is in the level of competition each team represents. Quite simply, as impressive as the Avs have been – and they’re a handful, averaging 4.64 goals per games compared to 3.06 for Tampa and have a power play operating at 31.1 percent efficiency in the playoffs – they have not faced anything close to the team that Tampa represents. It’s not just the goaltending where Vasilevskiy gives the Bolts a huge edge, although that’s a big part of it. The Avs have made mincemeat of backup goalies in Nashville and St. Louis and then had their way with a fatigued Mike Smith and have reached the final without having faced down a true No. 1 netminder this spring. Beyond that, though, the Avalanche have yet to face a team that checks like the Lightning check. People will put this down as a battle of skill on skill. That seems a bit misguided. We spoke to John Tortorella not long ago about coaching in the playoffs. His Columbus Blue Jackets were the last team to beat Tampa in a playoff series back in the first round in 2019. Tampa has won 11 straight series since and has a combined 204 total games of Stanley Cup Final experience on their roster compared to 29 for the Avs. Did the Lightning learn how to win through that loss to the Blue Jackets? Maybe. But Tortorella figures they sure as hell learned how to check, and to check is to win in the playoffs. The Avs are going to get a close-up view of what that looks like.

Offense

If the Avs have yet to confront a team with the kind of commitment to winning that the two-time defending Cup champion Bolts possess, then it’s fair to say the Bolts are facing a team that has the potential to attack in waves that is unlike any of their previous opponents, including the Presidents’ Trophy winning Florida Panthers and high-octane Toronto Maple Leafs. The Avs have dominated at 5-on-5 during this playoff run, which is where this series is likely to be won. The Avs have 46 even-strength goals in 14 games. Tampa has 29 even-strength goals in 17 games. Sure, there are the big guns for the Avs, MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen and of course Makar, but even with Kadri and Samuel Girard both going out with injury, it’s been the ability of the rest of the lineup to contribute especially at key moments that makes Colorado so dangerous. Darren Helm has been a revelation – hands up, fans outside Denver who even knew the long-time Red Wing was in Colorado? J.T. Compher has five goals and has the ability to slide up into the second-line center role if Jared Bednar desires, although he’s primarily used Rantanen as a center on that line with Artturi Lehkonen on the left side with Kadri out. The problem the Avs represent offensively for Tampa comes from the explosive back end led by Makar, who is the early Avs pick to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. Makar’s 22 points reflect his ability to do virtually anything he wants with the puck, whether it’s driving the net, quarterbacking the potent power play or dishing off to the team’s snipers. But it’s more than Makar. Devon Toews has five goals, Josh Manson has two, veteran Erik Johnson has one and youngster Bowen Byram has seven assists. Lightning defenders have five goals in total, and no one Tampa defenseman has more than two goals in the playoffs. That’s a mismatch that the Avs will be looking to exploit.

It starts and ends for Tampa offensively with the big line. Captain Steven Stamkos, who scored both Lightning goals in the series-clincher in the Eastern Conference Final Saturday, along with red-hot Ondrej Palat and Kucherov, have combined for 24 goals this playoff season. Kucherov leads the team with five power play markers and he has gotten better and better as the playoffs have rolled along. The Lightning depth has been tested with the absence of Brayden Point, who was lost in Game 7 of the first round. But he continues to edge closer to a return and head coach Jon Cooper indicated it was “extremely probable” Point will play in the final. While Point’s effectiveness may be blunted if and when he does get back into the lineup, the fact is Tampa will be adding a superstar center to the mix at just the right time, which helps to even the offensive scorecard in this series. His presence may be critical because the Lightning simply don’t possess the depth that Colorado does in terms of generating offense from throughout the lineup, even though guys like Colton and Nick Paul, who have combined for three game-winners, have risen to the occasion at key moments just as it seems all Tampa players, new or old, do come playoff time.

Defense

Now, the Avs are not a perfect team. They certainly miss Girard on the back end and they really miss the responsibility of Kadri up front. Both Kadri and Andrew Cogliano, who has been a surprisingly effective fourth liner for the team, are not being ruled out of the final series. Still, Kadri did undergo surgery after being pasted from behind in Game 3 of the west final by Evander Kane, so even if Kadri does come back, expectations will be muted for a guy who has been one of the team’s most valuable players throughout the regular season and the playoffs. But perhaps given the injuries, the Avs do give up chances. They’ve allowed 29 even-strength goals in 14 games compared to 24 even-strength goals allowed by Tampa in 17 games. Jack Johnson has come into Girard’s spot on the back end and has been fine playing on a shutdown pair with Manson. It’s possible we’ll see power against power with the MacKinnon line squaring off with the Stamkos line as Bednar doesn’t seem too concerned with having his best go up against the opposing teams’ best players. Still, with home ice to start the series Bednar, will be able to tinker with what gives him the best look, especially as it relates to the imposing shutdown abilities of the top four on the Tampa blueline.

As exhilarating as it’s been to watch Makar light things up offensively from the back end for Colorado, the fact is the Lightning are deeper and tougher on the back end and will represent a very specific challenge for the high-flying Avs. This all starts with the world’s best all-around defenseman in my books, Victor Hedman. Speaking of which, how much fun is it to see two Norris Trophy finalists going head-to-head in the final in Makar and Hedman? Both have a chance to tilt the scales in this series on their own. There’s not a ton of offense from the Tampa back end as we noted, but in terms of limiting chances, making life easier for Vasilevskiy and moving the puck swiftly and smartly to the team’s talented forward corps, do not underestimate this battle-tested group that starts with Hedman and partner Jan Rutta and also includes veteran Ryan McDonagh and his partner, underappreciated Erik Cernak. Overall Tampa allowed one 5-on-5 goal to the Rangers over the final four games of the ECF, and that was scored by defenseman Ryan Lindgren. That’s not just on the blueline corps, of course, that’s on the team defense that has become second-nature for this dynastic group. Doesn’t matter if you’re swapping Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman for Nick Paul and Brandon Hagel: this is part of the team’s DNA and is a decided edge to the Bolts as this series begins.

Goaltending

The Avs goaltending is like the box of chocolates Forrest Gump opined about: you just never know what or rather who you’re going to get. Darcy Kuemper is expected to be the Game 1 starter in what will be his first-ever final series appearance. But Kuemper hasn’t played since Game 1 of the conference final when he pulled himself out with an upper-body injury. He’s fine now but Pavel Francouz, who has come on in relief of Kuemper due to injury twice this playoff year, has been perfect when given the opportunity this spring with a 6-0 record, although his numbers are pedestrian with a .906 save percentage and 2.86 goals-against average. Kuemper has an .897 save percentage, for the record, and the fact of the matter is the Lightning own a massive edge in goal in this series. Does Francouz’s strong play in relief of Kuemper give Bednar more confidence to make a goaltending change if he doesn’t like what he sees from Kuemper? For sure. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see both Avs goaltenders factor into the final outcome of this series, win or lose.

As for Tampa: Andrei Vasilevskiy. Enough said. Okay, well, we’ll say a little bit more, starting with: there isn’t a better money goaltender anywhere and he’s now at the stage where you can ask where Vasilevskiy stands in terms of the greatest playoff goalies of all time given his ability to elevate his game when the stakes go up. Consider that he allowed nine goals as the Bolts fell behind 2-0 to the Rangers and then allowed five goals in four straight wins for the Lightning. He allowed three goals in a four-game sweep of a Florida team that put up the most impressive regular season offensive numbers in a generation. With the Lightning trailing 3-2 in the opening round against Toronto Vasilevskiy allowed four goals in winning Games 6 (in overtime at home) and then Game 7 on the road. There should be no rust issues to start the final which means the Avs are going to get peak Vasilevskiy from the get-go which isn’t good news for them.

Injuries

More so than in any series in recent memory, injuries could shift the balance of this series. It’s a race to see which team gets its second-line center back. Point appears to be closer than Kadri to a return. Cogliano’s hand injury could keep him out for at least Game 1.

Intangibles

I stand by my earlier statement that this series will be won or lost at even strength, but the fact is both teams can crush opponents on the power play and that means discipline will be at a premium. The Bolts have been playing an average of 5:35 shorthanded per game this playoff year. While they were better against the Rangers, staying out of the box against Colorado will be key for the Bolts. The Avs, by the way, are averaging a full minute less on the penalty kill per game and if they can maintain that kind of discipline it will give them an edge in playing more at even strength. Speaking of intangibles, at what point do Perry and Pat Maroon make their presence known in this series? Maroon, who scored a crucial goal early in Game 5 of the ECF for Tampa with the series tied 2-2, is gunning for his fourth straight Stanley Cup win, having earned a ring in St. Louis in ’19 and two more with the Bolts in ’20 and ’21. Incredible. Almost as incredible is Perry playing in his third straight final having lost to Tampa while with Dallas in ’20 and Montreal a year ago. Perry and the rest of the Bolts are hoping he’s on the Marian Hossa arc, as Hossa lost in the final with Pittsburgh in ’08, Detroit in ’09 (against Pittsburgh of course) and then won his first of three Cups with Chicago in ’10. For us, Perry and Maroon are the poster boys for intangibles, and it’s not a stretch to imagine one or both will factor into the final outcome in this series.

CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION

The Lightning have gradually won us over throughout these playoffs: battle tested, conquering the tougher road, seemingly getting better the deeper they go. We expect a close series, but the Vasilevskiy factor cannot be underestimated, nor can Colorado’s easy road to get here. Lightning in 7

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