Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — December 10th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Joel Farabee (W, PHI, PP2) – (DK-$3,100 / FD $4,300)
Projected points: DK – 7.9 / FD – 10.3
Philadelphia Flyers forward Joel Farabee has found himself on a nice run, averaging 7.5 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 games, while scoring just one goal and one assist. He’s paying off his value with excellent shot volume over this run, taking 32 shots on goal, with three or more in eight straight. It’s giving him a rock-solid floor, and he has the upside to score, doubly so considering he’s scored three goals and 12 points in 15 career games against Columbus.
Martin Necas (W, CAR1, PP1) — ($7,600 / $8,500)
Projected points: 13.7 / 17.2
You’re not often going to see an expensive player in these value plays articles, but sometimes opportunities arise where they make too much sense. Take Martin Necas tonight, the 15th highest-salaried forward on the DraftKings slate tonight. He’s tied for the lead league in points on the season, has slid up to the Carolina Hurricanes’ line alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, and has an incredible matchup against the San Jose Sharks. This is a smash spot tonight.
Jared Spurgeon (D, MIN-2, PP1) — ($3,900 / $5,500)
Projected points: 9.8 / 11.5
Spurgeon is popping early in projections today and has since he’s been elevated to the Minnesota Wild’s top power play unit. He has a strong floor on his own, taking 5.5 shots on goal per hour and blocking 5.0 shots per hour this season, and is chipping in offensively with 1.5 points per hour. The Wild have a strong matchup against the Utah Hockey Club tonight, and Spurgeon will look to take full advantage.
Brett Pesce (D, NJD-2) — ($3,200 / $4,200)
Projected points: 7.2 / 7.9
His salary has remained relatively stagnant in the low $3k’s on DraftKings, and has been a player consistently paying off his salary, averaging 8.0 DKFPPG over his last 10 games, and 6.7 on the season. While he’s scored just one point this year, an assist, he gets there on shot and block volume alone, and he’ll look to do so again in what should be a high-paced game between his New Jersey Devils and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Honourable mention forwards
- Steven Stamkos (C, NSH1, PP1) — ($4,700/$5,600) — Projected points: DK – 10.6 / FD – 13.3
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (W, EDM1, PP1) — ($4,500/$5,200) — 8.8 / 11.1
- Nino Niederreiter (W, WPG3, PP2) — ($3,000/$5,100) — 7.3 / 8.8
Top Punt Defensemen
- Mario Ferraro (SJS-2) — ($2,700/$4,000) — Projected points: DK – 6.2 / FD – 7.1
- Nick Seeler (PHI-2) — ($3,100/$4,400) — 7.2 / 7.8
- Calvin de Haan (COL-3) — ($2,600/$3,900) — 5.8 / 6.2
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.