Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — December 9th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Cutter Gauthier (W, ANA2, PP1) – (DK-$3,500 / FD $4,600)
Projected points: DK – 6.4 / FD – 8.3
Cutter Gauthier is (slowly) starting to score some goals, with three in his last 10 games, adding three assists to the mix, too. While he hasn’t taken a shot in his last three games, he’s maintained a strong shots-per-hour rate of 8.5, and is projected to play on the second line tonight for the Ducks, alongside Mason McTavish and Alex Killorn in a plus-matchup for all three.
Jiri Kulich (C, BUF3, PP2) — ($3,300 / $4,200)
Projected points: 5.6 / 6.6
Finding cheap centers in good spots can be a struggle, but Jiri Kulich offers some salary relief in the position tonight. He’s skating on the Sabres’ third line with Dylan Cozens and JJ Peterka, two talented but struggling players, and Kulich’s strong shot rate — 9.8 shots on goal per hour — offers him a reasonable floor. His individual expected goals (1.2 per hour) is well above his actual goal rate (.7 per hour), meaning he’s due for some goals to come. Could it come tonight against a struggling Red Wings team?
Jacob Trouba (D, ANA-3) — ($2,500 / $5,300)
Projected points: 8.1 / 10.1
Let’s address the Jacob Trouba-sized elephant in the room: what on earth is DraftKings doing with their pricing tonight? Trouba was steadily in the $5,000 range during his time with the Rangers, paying it off regularly with 9.7 DK points per game, but now, for some reason, he’s minimum-priced. He’s going to have high ownership, but how can you fade it?
Braden Schneider (D, NYR-2) — ($3,500 / $4,600)
Projected points: 6.9 / 8.7
Braden Schneider has been one of my favourite defenseman plays for a while. He plays lots of his time with the Rangers’ top-six, and there are few defencemen more productive in his ice time in terms of providing peripheral value. Averaging 16.9 minutes per night, he’s taking 5.1 shots on goal and blocks 6.6 per hour for a combined rate of 11.6 — second to only Trouba — in a great matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks tonight.
Honourable mention forwards
- Mason McTavish (C, ANA2, PP1) — ($4,400/$5,000) — Projected points: DK – 7.1 / FD – 9.4
- Filip Chytil (C, NYR3, PP2) — ($4,200/$4,800) — 7.4 / 9.6
- Brendan Gallagher (W, MTL3, PP2) — ($2,900/$4,700) — 6.4 / 8.1
Top Punt Defensemen
- Ben Chiarot (DET-2) — ($3,000/$4,300) — Projected points: DK – 6.2 / FD – 7.7
- Jackson LaCombe (ANA-2, PP2) — ($3,300/$4,800) — 6.9 / 8.7
- Victor Mancini (NYR-3) — ($2,500/$3,800) — 6.0 / 7.7
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.