Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – February 23rd
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely predicate around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots, and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus’ on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Warren Foegele (W, EDM) – vs. MIN – (DK-$3,700 / FD $5,500)
DFO Projection: DK-9.1 / FD-11.9
While he may be popping as a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, Warren Foegele is still in an excellent spot heading into Friday’s game against the Minnesota Wild. He played with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman on EDM1 Wednesday against Boston, scoring two goals and taking five shots on net. He’s a player who excels when bumped up the lineup this season, and the fact he provides some salary relief while playing alongside McDavid is a plus.
Sean Monahan (C, WPG) – @ CHI – ($4,900 / $5,900)
DFO Projection: DK-9.7 / FD-13.0
The Winnipeg Jets as a whole are projecting for lower ownership than I was expecting for this slate, and Sean Monahan is a player I think we can get an edge on. He’s finding his offensive stride in Winnipeg, racking up a stellar five goals in seven games, taking 18 shots on goal over that time.
Daily Faceoff’s DFS Charts show the Jets’ second line having a stronger matchup than the first, while coming in with a few less percentage points in ownership.
Jonas Brodin (D, MIN) – @ EDM – ($4,800 / $5,700)
DFO Projection: DK-10.5 / FD-13.2
As the public flocks to rookie sensation Brock Faber on a regular basis, Jonas Brodin has turned into the forgotten about younger brother. I kid, but looking at tonight’s slate, Brodin is $400 cheaper on both sites, while projecting for the same amount of points. And while Faber is projecting for nearly 20 percent ownership, Brodin is projecting for less than four percent.
A big reason for that is due to Faber’s time on the power play, where the Wild have a strong matchup, but Brodin is still producing in his own right.
Jake Bean (D, CBJ) – vs BUF – ($2,800 / $3,800)
DFO Projection: DK-5.8 / FD-7.4
A great different spot is playing Jake Bean, who projects for less than one percent ownership. Over his last 25 games, he’s scored 1.1 points per hour while taking 4.7 shots on goal per hour and blocking 5.4 shots per hour — prereferral stats right up with the best of the best on tonight’s slate. It wouldn’t take much for him to pay off, and if he finds a way to get on the score sheet and add a few blocks in a high volume game, he will more than pay off his salary.
Honourable mention forwards
- Yegor Chinakhov (W, CBJ) ($4,600/$5,800): DK-9.2 / FD-11.9
- Nino Niederreiter (W, WPG) ($3,900/$4,900): DK-6.7 / FD-8.6
- Peyton Krebs (C, BUF) ($2,500/$3,200): DK-3.5 / FD-4.5
Top Punt Defensemen
- Connor Clifton, BUF ($2,800/$3,600): DK-6.0 / FD-7.5
- Jacob Middleton, MIN ($3,500/$3,800): DK-6.2 / FD-7.7
- Dylan Samberg, WPG ($2,600/$3,700): DK-5.9 / FD-7.6
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.