Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — February 26th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Dawson Mercer (W, NJD3, PP2) – (DK-$4,700 / FD $4,500)
Projected points: DK – 5.1 / FD – 6.6
It’s not as easy as it once was to identify cheap value plays, but while the New Jersey Devils third line has struggled to generate much offence, they’re an intriguing option on tonight’s slate. They’ll see around 30 percent of their ice-time against the Avalanche’s third line that has struggled mightily defensively as of late. Mercer, meanwhile, has had good shot volume as of late with 6.2 shots on goal per hour over his last 20 games, but what jumps out is his prior success against Colorado, scoring two goals and six points in seven games. He’s projected for very low ownership on tonight’s three-game slate, making him an intriguing value option.
Quinton Byfield (C, LAK2, PP2) — ($5,800 / $6,000)
Projected points: 7.9 / 10.4
Byfield is popping more as a value play today, but is getting overlooked in terms of his ownership. While the Kings’ second line is projected for the fourth-most ownership on the slate, Byfield is seeing nearly a third of his linemates in Kevin Fiala and Alex Laferriere. DFS players are flocking towards the more expensive center options like Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes or Mark Scheifele, or some of the cheaper options in Filip Chytil, Anze Kopitar or Philip Danault, leaving Byfield forgottnen in the middle ground. That, coupled with the fact he’s had the fourth most assists per hour of any center on this slate over his last 20 games, makes him a good option to get different tonight.
Seamus Casey (D, NJD-3) — ($2,700 / $4,200)
Projected points: 6.5 / 8.5
Draft Kings’ new pricing system has made it harder and harder to find viable defencemen under $3,000, but Seamus Casey fits the bill. He isn’t projected for much in terms of minutes, giving some inherent risk, but he’s found more than enough ways to be productive this season, scoring four goals and five points while adding nine shots and seven blocks. He won’t need much to pay off his salary, and is seeing next to no ownership.
Neal Pionk (D, WPG-2, PP2) — ($4,200 / $5,700)
Projected points: 7.6 / 9.8
The Jets look like they’re in a great spot tonight, and Pionk looks to be a solid value play tonight. He’s generating moderate periffereal numbers with five shots on goal per hour and three blocks per hour over his last 20 games, but is chipping in some offence with 1.3 points per hour. He comes into tonight’s game on a good run, scoring two goals and six points in his last 10 games, averaging 9.4 Draft Kings points per game.
Honourable mention forwards
- David Perron (W, OTT2, PP2) — ($4,000/$4,700) — Projected points: DK – 7.2 / FD – 9.2
- Adam Lowry (C, WPG3) — ($3,600/$5,300) — 6.0 / 7.8
Top punt defensemen
- Artem Zub (OTT-2) — ($3,500/$4,700) — Projected points: DK – 7.2 / FD – 9.0
- Filip Hronek (VAN-2, PP2) — ($3,700/$5,400) — 7.1 / 9.3
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Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, and senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.