Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays – February 29th
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, and three punt options for defensemen. These largely predicate around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots, and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus’ on DraftKings.
A new addition is the “honourable mention forwards,” taking a look at some low-owned plays that expectations should be tempered with. Still, they bring some level of value in the form of a strong projection tonight, or good past production against their opponents.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO Daily Projections
Matthew Tkachuk (W, FLA) – vs MTL – (DK-$7,500 / FD $9,000)
DFO Projection: DK-17.2 / FD-23.6
It’s a Matthew Tkachuk night, and a big one at that. Daily Faceoff projects him to be the top value play among forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and it’s not often we see that. It makes sense, given he has 2.2 goals per hour, 6.0 points per hour and 11.8 shots per hour over his last 25 games. He is projecting for among the most ownership on the slate, so you’ll have to find some spots to get different around him.
Seth Jarvis (W, CAR) – @ CBJ – ($4,900 / $6,300)
DFO Projection: DK-6.4 / FD-14
One way to do that could be to play Seth Jarvis tonight. He’s flip-flopped a bit between CAR1 and CAR3 this season, and could play in either spot tonight, even though Daily Faceoff is projecting him on the top line. Either way, he’s been productive on both lines. He’s scored .9 goals per hour and 3.9 points per hour with good shot volume, and a few blocks in the mix. He’s also got .2 expected goals per hour under where he’s scored, so he’s due to pile on some goals.
Ryan Pulock (D, NYI) – @ DET – ($4,300 / $4,500)
DFO Projection: DK-10.0 / FD-12.7
Pulock is popping on both sites tonight and draws a great individual matchup against the Red Wings. Why? The Red Wings have been flying high lately, and Pulock blocks a ton of shots — 7.9 per hour over his last 25 games, to be exact. He’s also got some good shot volume, and has chipped in some points. At around three percent ownership, he looks like a great play tonight.
Marcus Pettersson (D, PIT) – @ SEA – ($3,700 / $4,500)
DFO Projection: DK-8.7 / FD-11.4
Pettersson looks like a great play tonight as one of the highest points per $1k defensemen on the slate. He has had some great point production as of late, and has good shot and block volume. Against a Kraken team who fires the puck a lot, he should be live for the bonus.
Honourable mention forwards
- Tyler Johnson (C, CHI) ($4,000/$4,000): DK-9.9 / FD- 12.9
- Bobby McMann (W, TOR) ($3,400/$5,300): DK-7.6 / FD-10.0
- Logan O’Connor (W, COL) ($3,400/$4,300): DK-8.0 / FD-10.5
Top Punt Defensemen
- Ty Emberson, SJS ($3,400/$3,800): DK-8.0 / FD-10.7
- Nate Schmidt, WPG ($2,500/$3,700): DK-5.9 / FD-7.5
- Declan Chisholm, MIN ($3,300/$3,900): DK-7.0 / FD-9.4
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.