Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — January 21st
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Viktor Arvidsson (W, EDM1, PP1) – (DK-$3,800 / FD $5,600)
Projected points: DK – 9.3 / FD – 11.2
With Connor McDavid out tonight and for the next two games due to his suspension, the Oilers will need some players to step up, and Viktor Arvidsson is in a prime spot. He’ll likely see a bump in five-on-five ice-time and his last 20 games have given him a great floor, scoring 1.1 goals per hour, 2.8 points per hour and 10.2 shots on goal per hour.
Chris Kreider (W, NYR3, PP1) — ($4,300 / $6,000)
Projected points: 8.9 / 10.8
I’ll be the first to admit I’ve never been one to play much Chris Krieder, but his salary has come down significantly, and quietly, he’s been playing well. He’s got 1.2 goals per hour over his last 20 games against 1.3 individual expected goals per hour, and is taking 7.8 shots on goal per hour.
Kaiden Guhle (D, MTL-2) — ($3,300 / $5,000)
Projected points: 7.8 / 8.4
Kaiden Guhle has been a volume machine as of late, taking 4.5 shots on goal per hour and blocking 6.8 over his last 20 games. Going against a volume team in the Tampa Bay Lightning, he should be in the hunt for some bonuses tonight.
Jackson LaCombe (D, ANA-1, PP1) — ($4,300 / $5,700)
Projected points: 8.8 / 9.7
Jackson LaCombe is coming into his own in Anaheim and has been huge for the Ducks in recent weeks. Over his last 20 games he’s scoring .6 goals per hour and 2.0 points per hour, while taking 6.9 shots on goal per hour. His blocks per hour rate has dropped to 3.9 over that stretch, but has hit the block bonus in two of his last four games, one of which was against the Panthers last weekend.
Honourable mention forwards
- Macklin Celebrini (C, SJS2, PP1) — ($6,500/$7,200) — Projected points: DK – 10.3 / FD – 11.8
- Morgan Frost (C, PHI1, PP1) — ($3,900/$5,500) — 8.2 / 10.3
Top Punt Defensemen
- Mattias Ekholm (EDM-1) — ($3,900/$5,300) — Projected points: DK – 8.4 / FD – 8.2
- Nick Blankenburg (NSH-2) — ($2,500/$3,800) — 6.1 / 6.9
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Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, and senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.