Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — March 11th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Cody Glass (C, NJD2, PP2) — ($2,500 / $4,500)
Projected points: DK – 6.1 / FD – 7.9
We’ve got a huge, 11-game slate with some massive contests on DraftKings, so it’s only natural we have a minimum priced forward in a great spot. That’s Cody Glass tonight, who after plotting along in Pittsburgh this season has been thrust into the New Jersey Devils’ top-six in the wake of Jack Hughes’ injury. His price has since come down from the low $3k range to minimum price tonight.
He scored in his debut on Sunday, playing 12:21 on the night, but even during his time in the Steel City, he brought some good shot volume with in, taking 8.2 shots on goal per game over his last 20. That averages out to around two shots on goal per game given his ice-time — while scoring four goals and seven points — but at minimum price, even if he posts a goose egg, he can open up more salary for other parts of your lineup.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (W, TBL2, PP1) – (DK-$2,500 / FD $5,200)
Projected points: 5.8 / 7.5
Is it cheating to pick the two minimum-priced forwards in great spots? Maybe, but I write this article, so I make the rules. All the same theory around Glass applies to Bjorkstrand, but his price has come down from the high $3k to low $4k range down to minimum price, for some reason. Nonetheless, he’s on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s second line, and is on the top power play unit, and is scoring at a similar rate over his last 20 games as Glass, while taking 6.8 shots on goal per hour.
Tyler Toffoli (C, SJS1, PP1) – (DK-$5,600 / FD $6,600)
Projected points: 11.5 / 14.8
Okay we’ll give you another main value play today who isn’t minimum price, and someone who is having the time of their life in San Jose. From signing a four-year, $6-million AAV deal to sleepovers with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, to tremendous on-ice play, Toffoli is having a year.
He’s found an offensive rejuvenation this season, and over his last 20 games, he’s been lights out, scoring 1.9 goals per hour, and 3.6 points per hour while taking 11.8 shots on goal per hour. He’s been a volume hound, and projects to be an excellent play tonight.
Gustav Forsling (D, FLA-1) — ($4,000 / $4,800)
Projected points: 8.9 / 11.2
Onto bluer pastures, Gustav Forsling is about to be thrust into larger minutes in the wake of Aaron Ekblad’s 20-game ban for violating the league’s performance enhancing drug program. Forsling brings with him solid shot volume and modest block volume, but he always seems to step up in Ekblad’s wake.
Marc Del Gaizo (D, NSH-2) — ($3,200 / $4,300)
Projected points: 6.8 / 8.5
MDG is a player I’ve been including in lineup all year long, and will continue to do so. With Roman Josi still out, he’s stepped up and has been driving offence from the blue line. In six games since he’s been recalled, he’s averaged 9.1 DraftKings points per game, scoring .6 goals per hour and 1.7 points per hour, all the while taking 8.5 shots on goal per hour and blocking 4.5 per hour. He finds ways to be productive and should be able to continue that tonight.
Honourable mention forwards
- Alex Laferriere (W, LAK1) — ($4,500/$5,800) — Projected points: DK – 7.9 / FD – 10.1
- Filip Chytil (C, VAN2, PP2) — ($5,100/$5,800) — 8.8 / 11.3
Top punt defensemen
- Victor Mancini (VAN-3) — ($2,500/$3,800) — Projected points: DK – 6.2 / FD – 8.0
- Brandt Clarke (LAK-3) — ($3,500/$5,000) — 6.1 / 7.9
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Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, and senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.