Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — March 4th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Matvei Michkov (W, PHI3, PP1) — ($4,600 / $6,600)
Projected points: DK – 9.3 / FD – 12.2
The NHL’s rookie of the month for February is on a tear. Over his last 20 games he’s scored 1.4 goals per hour and 3.0 points per hour, adding 10.1 shots on goal per hour over that time. He isn’t seeing a ton of ice-time, but has five goals and 10 points in his last 10 games, taking 30 shots on goal. He looks to be in a great spot tonight against the Flames.
Anthony Cirelli (C, TBL2, PP2) – (DK-$4,500 / FD $6,200)
Projected points: 9.0 / 11.8
Cirelli has struggled to produce as of late, with just .6 goals per hour and 1.8 points per hour over his last 20 games. His shot volume has dipped, too, but his shooting percentage over that time is 11 percent below his season average. He’s due to breakout and could do so in a great spot against the Blue Jackets tonight.
John Klingberg (D, EDM-2) — ($3,000 / $4,500)
Projected points: 6.4 / 8.3
John Klingberg is starting to find his legs in Edmonton, and in his nine games since joining the team, has scored a goal and four points, adding 13 shots and 10 blocks. There’s the revenge game narrative taking on the Ducks in thanks to his brief stint there, and the Oilers should be able to roll tonight.
Marc Del Gaizo (D, NSH-2) — ($3,200 / $3,800)
Projected points: 6.6 / 8.0
In his most recent two games, MDG has a goal and two points, taking nine shots on goal, hitting the bonus in one of them. The jump in production comes with a jump in ice-time, which will remain with Roman Josi out of the lineup, and I like betting on it to continue.
Honourable mention forwards
- Tyler Toffoli (W, SJS1, PP1) — ($5,200/$6,500) — Projected points: DK – 9.2 / FD – 11.8
- Ross Colton (W, COL3, PP2) — ($3,500/$5,300) — 6.5 / 8.2
Top punt defensemen
- Darren Raddysh (CHI-3) — ($2,800/$4,300) — Projected points: DK – 5.5 / FD – 6.6
- Jack Thompson (SJS-3) — ($2,900/$4,400) — 5.1 / 6.3
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Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, and senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.