Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — November 13th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (C, WSH2, PP2) – (DK-$4,200 / FD $5,300)
DFO Projection: DK – 7.7 / FD – 10.1
Washington’s second line looks to be in a great spot against the Toronto Maple Leafs. For one, you get to fade some of the chalk the Leafs will carry, for second, you get to target a line that’s been wildly productive to start the year, and third, they are slated to go up against a TOR1 line that is awful defensively. PLD’s been productive this year, but is due for some positive scoring regression with his 0.3 goals per hour trailing far behind his 1.5 individual expected goals per hour, and his 4.0 shooting percentage well behind his historical 12.3 percent.
Frank Vatrano (W, ANA1, PP1) – ($4,800 / $5,500)
DFO Projection: DK – 10.3 / FD – 12.9
Vatrano is seeing a fair amount of ownership, but it makes sense given his combination of a solid floor, and upside in a favourable matchup tonight. He and the Ducks’ top line are slated to play against the Golden Knights’ top line, which have had some serious defensive struggles. Vatrano has had great shot volume, and like with PLD, is due for positive goal regression.
Erik Karlsson (D, PIT-2, PP1) ($5,300 / $5,900)
DFO Projection: DK – 9.5 / FD – 12.7
Karlsson has quietly been having a strong season for the Penguins, with tons of shot volume and solid point production. Pittsburgh’s top-six, who he played bunches with at even strength, has a great matchup against the Red Wings, and their power play looks to be in a good spot against an awful penalty kill.
Radko Gudas (D, ANA-1) ($3,300 / $4,400)
DFO Projection: DK – 6.6 / FD – 8.3
If there’s one thing Radko Gudas loves to do it’s block pucks, and he’s projecting for among the most of all defencemen on tonight’s slate. He’s live for the bonus every night, and there’s even some evenings where he adds some shot volume, too, something he’ll look to do tonight.
Honourable mention forwards
- Pavel Dorofeyev (W, VGK2, PP1) ($5,100/$6,500): DK – 11.1 / FD – 14.2
- Michael Bunting (W, PIT2) ($2,900/$4,200): DK – 6.9 / FD – 9.0
- Artturi Lehkonen (W, COL1, PP1) ($5,500/$6,700): DK – 10.2 / FD – 13.5
Top Punt Defensemen
- Sean Walker (CAR-2) ($2,900/$3,700): DK – 6.2 / FD – 6.3
- Calvin de Haan (COL-3) ($2,900/$3,700): DK – 4.2 / FD – 5.2
- Brian Dumoulin (ANA-2) ($2,800/$4,100): DK – 5.4 / FD – 6.9
Tune into the DFO DFS REPORT Live at 4 PM EST!
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.