Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — November 4th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
FULL DFO DFS PROJECTIONS
Zach Hyman (W, EDM1, PP1) – (DK-$6,7000 / FD $5,900)
DFO Projection: DK – 11.4 / FD – 14.7
Zach Hyman opened the season with no goals in his first 10 games of the season, but that’s quickly changed with a tally in each of his last two, including a Sunday night game-winner against the Calgary Flames. Even though he was goalless, he was racking up high-quality chances, and now, his shooting percentage is still below his average of the two prior years. With Connor McDavid out due to injury, he’s a player who the Oilers will need to continue to step up.
Dawson Mercer (W, NJD1, PP2) – ($3,500 / $4,700)
DFO Projection: DK – 6.7 / FD – 8.8
Tonight’s game between the Devils and Oilers projects to be the higher-scoring of the two, and Dawson Mercer projects as a strong value play. His offensive numbers haven’t been great thus far in 2024, but what he has going for him is prior success against the Oilers, with three goals and six points in six games. The Devils top line has been rolling, and tonight affords a chance for Mercer to produce.
Brandt Clarke (D, LAK-2, PP1) ($4,800 / $6,400)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.5 / FD – 10.9
Clarke’s salary is only going to continue to climb as he continues to produce. On the season, he’s scoring 3.0 points per hour, with not just great shot volume, at 7.3 shots per hour, but strong block volume, too, with 6.0 per hour. He’s their power play quarterback, and is a staple of these Value Plays articles.
Dougie Hamilton (D, NJD-1, PP1) ($6,200 / $6,200)
DFO Projection: DK – 9.4 / FD – 12.3
The Oilers penalty kill has been downright atrocious this season, allowing a goal against 38.2 percent of the times they’re in the box, while giving up one or more goal against in nine of 12 games. It’s the worst rate in the league, while the Devils are converting on 28.9 percent of their power play chances. Four of Hamilton’s seven points on the season, meanwhile, have come on the man advantage, and is in a prime position to get a point there tonight.
Honourable mention forwards
- Gustav Nyquist (W, NSH1, PP2) ($3,400/$): DK – 7.3 / FD – 9.8
- Warren Foegele (W, LAK3) ($6,500/$): DK – 6.8 / FD – 8.6
- Tommy Novak (C, NSH3, PP2) ($3,100/$): DK – 6.3 / FD – 8.5
Top Punt Defensemen
- Marc Del Gaizo (NSH-3) ($2,500/$): DK – 5.0 / FD – N/A
- Darnell Nurse (EDM-2, PP2) ($4,300/$): DK – 9.9 / FD – 9.9
- Brett Pesce (NJD-3) ($3,000/$): DK – 5.2 / FD – 6.5
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Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.