Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — November 5th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Arturri Lehkonen (W, COL1, PP1) – (DK-$3,500 / FD $6,500)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.7 / FD – 11.5
Arturri Lehkonen is off the injured reserve and up to the top line in perfect time for a game against the Seattle Kraken. He’s scored two goals and five points in eight regular season games, and three goals and six points in seven playoff games. Colorado’s top line grades out as the best to target on tonight’s slate, and they’re going to be chalky tonight, but Lehkonen’s value is too good to pass up.
Anders Lee (W, NYI1) – ($3,500 / $5,800)
DFO Projection: DK – 9.4 / FD – 11.9
Another player seeing lots of ownership is Anders Lee, who has been tremendous to start the season. He’s taken a stunning 15.1 shots per hour this season, and has 1.7 individual expected goals per hour, while scoring just 0.9 goals per hour. His shooting percentage is half his historical average, and that’s going to rebound at some point sooner rather than later. He’s far too cheap at his current price.
Zach Werenski (D, CBJ-1, PP1) ($7,800 / $7,000)
DFO Projection: DK – 12.8 / FD – 16.7
Werenski might be the second highest-priced defenceman on the DraftKings slate, but that still isn’t stopping him from being one of the best value plays on the entire slate. He’s provided excellent shot volume, and has racked up three goals and nine points in 11 games so far this season. While his shooting percentage is up 1.6 percent over his historical average, he’s also seen a big increase in his individual expected goals, so his production may be sticky. Even still, the matchup against the San Jose Sharks tonight is too good to pass up.
Filip Hronek (D, VAN-1, PP2) ($3,500 / $4,600)
DFO Projection: DK – 7.8 / FD – 10.3
I’ll be the first to admit I don’t love playing Filip Hronek, but he continues to be near the top of the defensive value list. He doesn’t have great volume of any kind, but what has him here tonight is the fact he’s scored three goals and eight points in 10 games against the Anaheim Ducks, including a five-game assist streak against them. Hronek is projecting for under one percent ownership, so he’s a great way to get different.
Honourable mention forwards
- Jake DeBrusk (W, VAN1, PP2) ($3,300/$5,500): DK – 8.4 / FD – 10.8
- Gabe Vilardi (W, WPG1, PP1) ($4,500/$6,300): DK – 9.9 / FD – 13.1
- Mikael Backlund (C, CGY2, PP2) ($3,800/$5,000): DK – 8.2 / FD – 10.6
Top Punt Defensemen
- Scott Mayfield (NYI-2) ($2,500/$3,700): DK – 7.3 / FD – 9.2
- Tyson Barrie (CGY-3, PP2) ($2,500/$3,700): DK – 6.0 / FD -7.9
- Radko Gudas (ANA-2) ($3,000/$4,300): DK – 5.9 / FD – 7.3
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Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.