Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — October 18th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Calum Ritchie (W, COL3, PP2) – vs. ANA – (DK-$3,300 / FD $4,000)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.1 / FD – 10.3
While the Colorado Avalanche continue to struggle early this season, one forward who isn’t struggling is Calum Ritchie, vaulted into the top six and averaging 7.3 DKFPPG. COL3 has a great matchup on this slate, and he is projecting for low ownership. He’s a solid one-off play, who could elevate up the lineup to the top six in-game.
Tyler Toffoli (W, SJS1, PP1) – @ WPG – ($5,000 / $6,800)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.7 / FD – 11.0
We have this thing as part of the DFO DFS Report Show called the “Winnipeg Jets flowchart.” It’s pretty simple: when the Jets are in a spot that they should smash, they don’t, so we don’t play them. When they’re in a spot they shouldn’t smash, they do, so we play them.
Enter Tyler Toffoli, who projects as the top value play from the San Jose Sharks, and someone who projects for lower ownership than others in a similar price range. The matchup is tough on paper, but if we’re following the flowchart, it’s a Sharks kind of night tonight.
Shayne Gostisbehere (D, CAR-2, PP1) – @ PIT – ($3,600 / $5,600)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.1 / FD – 10.9
Gostisbehere’s salary is starting to creep up, and rightly so. Through two games, priced at $2,700 and $3,200, he’s scored 7.1 and 20.5 DraftKings points. He’s shooting the puck a ton, playing a solid amount of ice time, and gets work on the Hurricanes’ top power play unit. He’ll be one of the highest owned blue liners on the slate, but looks like a great play once again.
Honourable mention forwards
- Cole Perfetti (W, WPG2, PP2) ($3,200/$4,800): DK – 7.3 / FD – 9.5
- Martin Necas (W, CAR2, PP1) ($4,700/$6,300): DK – 9.4 / FD – 12.1
- Casey Mittelstadt (C, COL2, PP1) ($5,200/$6,100): DK – 8.6 / FD – 11.6
Top Punt Defensemen
- Oliver Kylington (COL-1) ($3,100/$3,700): DK – 6.2 / FD – 7.8
- Jake Walman (SJS-1, PP1) ($4,500/$5,500): DK -7.8 / FD – 9.6
- Radko Gudas (ANA-2) ($3,500/$4,500): DK – 6.3 / FD – 8.0
Tune into the DFO DFS REPORT Live at 4:00 PM EST!
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.