Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — October 21st
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday, I break down hockey’s main slate, looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defensemen values, as well as honourable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings, where all the value plays are directed for.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Bobby McMann (W, TOR2) – (DK-$4,400 / FD $8,000)
DFO Projection: DK – 7.1 / FD – 9.1
McMann has been solid for the Leafs so far this year in their top six, and relative to other player pricing, pops as a strong value play on tonight’s showdown slate. He’s scored three goals in four games, and while the goal-scoring upside is attractive in and of itself, his shot volume is what’s drawing me in tonight, given he’s taking 11.3 shots per hour of ice time this season, the third most of any player in tonight’s game.
Brandon Hagel (W, TBL2, PP1) – (DK-$7.400 / FD $10,000)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.2 / FD – 10.9
My interest in Hagel is directly correlated to his elevation to the Lightning’s top power play unit, and while they’ve struggled as a whole to generate offence this year, Hagel might help change that. He’s got a nose for the net, and in four games, he’s scored two goals, four points and 1.7 individual expected goals per hour — the fourth highest mark on this slate.
Michael Chaffee (W, TBL2) – ($2,000 / $6,500)
DFO Projection: DK – 3.3 / FD – 4.2
Playing a minimum-priced player in a showdown lineup is the ultimate way to get different, as they need very little to pay off, while a goal or a point could rocket your lineup up large field GPP’s. Chaffee has the benefit of scoring on Saturday, but also had an assist in last Thursday’s Lightning game. As such, he’s been elevated to the Lightning’s second line, and correlates excellently with Hagel.
Ryan McDonagh (D, TBL-2) ($3,400 / $7,500)
DFO Projection: DK – 6.1 / FD – 7.9
McDonagh is popping as the top value defenceman on this slate at $3,400, largely in thanks to his shot blocking value, laying down for 7.2 per hour this season. While that number is still below that of shot block god Chris Tanev, McDonagh has two assists in four games this year, giving him some offensive upside, too.
Top Punt Defensemen
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson (TOR-2, PP1) ($6,600/$9,000): DK – 7.2 / FD – 9.3
- Erik Cernak (TBL-2) ($2,400/$7,500): DK – 4.5 / FD – 5.7
- Chris Tanev (TOR-1) ($5,200/$7,500): DK – 5.8 / FD – 7.4
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Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.