Daily Faceoff NHL DFS Value Plays — October 8th
Welcome to Daily Faceoff’s NHL DFS Value Plays, where five days a week from Monday to Friday I break down hockey’s main slate looking for the top value plays.
This value sheet includes salaries, projections for DraftKings and FanDuel for the top forward and defencemen values, as well as honorable mention forwards and three punt options for blue liners. While the main value plays look at spots to get different and their upside, the others revolve around their ability to produce peripheral points by taking shots and blocking them. These players are always live for the bonus on DraftKings.
These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game sample has too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Instead, the projections represent a player’s average performance on average if that matchup was played repeatedly. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent each player’s average of those possibilities.
Dylan Guenther (W, UTA2, PP1) – vs. CHI – (DK-$6,000 / FD $5,500)
DFO Projection: DK – 10.1 / FD – 13.0
Dylan Guenther is poised for a big breakout season, fresh off signing an eight-year, $7.14-million AAV deal this summer. While his deal doesn’t kick in until next year, the Utah Hockey Club are hoping for him to shine on the final year of his entry-level contract.
Playing on their second line and top power play unit, his price tag is a little expensive, but he’s a good way to shed some ownership on other higher priced players, while still keeping similar production.
Shane Wright (C, SEA3, PP2) – vs. STL – ($4,300 / $3,900)
DFO Projection: DK – 5.9 / FD – 7.7
The projection might not be the flashiest for Wright tonight, but he’s a player coming off a strong pre-season, looking to make his mark in the NHL. SEA3 has always been a favourite line of the DFO DFS team, and he’s slated to play alongside Eeli Tolvanen and Oliver Bjorkstrand, two players who have provided solid DFS value in the past.
People will flock to Matty Beniers at a lower price point, but Wright offers a way to get off some of that chalk.
Mikhail Sergachev (D, UTA-1, PP1) – vs. CHI – ($4,300 / $6,400)
DFO Projection: DK – 9.5 / FD – 12.5
Speaking of chalk, you’ll be eating it playing Mikhail Sergachev, who is priced well below where he should be on DraftKings. In 36 NHL games last year, he averaged 9.2 DKFPPG with a salary much closer to $5,000 than $4,300.
But his situation in Utah is different than in Tampa Bay, where he’s now the No. 1 defenceman on the team and quarterbacking the top power play unit. He and Guenther would make for a great mini-stack.
Aaron Ekblad (D, FLA-1, PP2) – vs. STL – ($3,800 / $6,000)
DFO Projection: DK – 8.3 / FD – 10.5
Ekblad is coming off a down 2023-24 season and is looking to bounce back this year, projecting as the second best value defenceman on the entire slate, behind Sergachev. He also will come in at lower ownership, and offer a chance to get a bit different.
Honourable mention forwards
- Ilya Mikheyev (W, CHI1) ($2,600/$3,600): DK – 6.1 / FD – 7.8
- Andre Burakovsky (W, SEA2, PP2) ($3,200/$4,300): DK – 6.7 / FD – 8.7
- Dylan Holloway (W, STL1, PP2) ($2,500 / $3,700): DK – 5.0 / FD – 6.3
Top Punt Defensemen
- Ian Cole (UTA-2) ($2,700/$3,600): DK – 5.4 / FD – 6.7
- Philip Broberg (STL-2, PP2) ($2,600/ $3,600): DK – 4.1 / FD – 5.1
- Andrew Peeke (BOS-3) ($2,700/$3,600): DK – 4.6 / FD – 5.7
Tune into the DFO DFS REPORT Live at 2:30 PM EST!
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist and makes up one half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.
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