Daily NHL betting guide: March 12
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Saturday, March 12
Model’s Picks
Record: 60-52
Units: +2.24
ROI: +1.98%
Arizona Coyotes (@ BOS)
We are 3-0, +4.79 Units with a 119.75 ROI% when recommending bets on the Coyotes this season. Hopefully, that trend will continue tonight in Boston, where Arizona are massive +309 underdogs. The Coyotes are playing their best hockey of the season, they haven’t lost in March, going 4-0 while averaging 6.0 goals for and 3.0 goals against. Of those four wins, two of them came against Colorado and Toronto, so they are capable of shocking quality competition. The model still only gives the Coyotes a 30.8 percent chance of winning on Saturday, but the +309 betting line offers enough value to recommend a bet.
1 Unit Bet: ARI +309
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – Carolina/Calgary regulation parlay
This strategy has paid off for me this year. Take two of the bigger favourites to win in regulation and parlay them. Today’s payout is a nice +138 courtesy of Pointsbet. The Canes have won three in a row and are 8-1-1 in their last ten. They’re playing a Flyers team that is 2-3-0 this month. The Flames are on home ice tonight, where they have a record of 17-5-5 this season and they’re playing against the Red Wings team that is just 8-15-3 on the road. I’m also taking Montreal on the moneyline against Seattle. The Habs have won three home games in a row.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Elias Lindholm over 0.5 assists (-105)
My prop picks are starting to heat up a little! I like that we’re almost getting even money on Lindholm to grab an assist. He’s hit this in three of his last five games and I think the Flames should be able to get their offense going tonight against the Red Wings. Lindholm plays on the Flames top line and top powerplay unit, both of which have been humming along pretty nicely since the start of the month.