Daily NHL betting guide: March 31
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Thursday, March 31
Model’s Picks
Record: 66-60
Units: +1.49
ROI: +1.18%
Recommended Bets
COL/SJS Under 6.5 Goals (-121)
The Avalanche are expected to get Nathan MacKinnon back tonight, which will undoubtedly help them offensively. However, the Avalanche haven’t exactly been playing in high-scoring games as of late. In their last nine games, only two of them have gone over 6.5 goals. The Sharks have gone under 6.5 in five of their last nine.
With the Sharks playing last night, they could struggle against a powerhouse on Thursday. If this game is going to go over, the Avalanche are probably going to need to do the heavy lifting. This has the feel of a 4-1 Colorado win.
1 Unit Bet: COL/SJS Under 6.5 Goals (-121)
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Winnipeg Jets (@ TOR)
The model likes the Jets as +200 underdogs tonight but what it isn’t seeing is Kyle Connor and Nate Schmidt both in COVID-19 protocol. Additionally, the Jets are on a back-to-back and it seems likely that Eric Comrie will start. While Comrie has been impressive this season, this is a tough spot for him and the Jets. Winnipeg is also playing their fifth game in seven nights
Yaremchuk’s Picks
Yaremchuk’s Pick – COL/CAR regulation parlay (+110)
The Avalanche are taking on a Sharks team that just lost the Arizona Coyotes last night. The Avs are also expected to have Nathan MacKinnon in the lineup tonight. This should be a layup for the Avalanche, simple as that. The Hurricanes are just 4-3-3 in their last ten but they get the face a Canadiens team that’s 3-3-4 in their last ten. The Canes are also expected to have Freddie Andersen between the pipes and this game is in Carolina where the Canes are 24-5-4 this season. I’m also taking the Calgary Flames on the puck line at -115. I think they’ll be hungry to bounce back after a tight loss to the Avalanche earlier this week and the Kings just lost in a shootout last night in Edmonton. I like the Flames to roll at home.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 assists (+130)
Bergeron has hit this mark in three of his last five games and has four assists in that span. The Devils have allowed 19 goals against in their last five games as well so I think the Bruins can get the offence rolling and Bergeron seems like a good bet to get involved. A top-line player who gets a lot of powerplay time at +130 is a good value. I’m also taking Jaccob Slavin at +155 to get an assist for the Hurricanes. He’s also hit this number in three of his last five and this is a good matchup for the Canes.