DFO Fantasy Mailbag: Nov. 25
Attention fantasy owners: It’s no longer early.
Honestly, can you believe December is just around the corner?
At this point in the season, you should have a firm understanding of what your team is or isn’t. Furthermore, all things being equal, now’s the time for change. Don’t wait around.
Now to your questions:
Is Lafrenierre a bust?
— Luke mccarley (@LukeMcCarley) November 22, 2022Nick Alberga: Personally, I think it’s a bit rich to call Lafreniere a bust this early in his career, but I get it. That said, there’s no question he’s been a massive disappointment thus far, that’s for sure. And it’s not like the New York Rangers haven’t given him ample opportunity to do his thing either. Routinely, he’s been skating with the big boys in the top-six and clearly, the results have been mixed. As you know, a lot has happened in the world in the past couple of years, so I’m probably going to give Lafreniere a little more rope than I typically would in this type of situation.
Brock Seguin: No, Gerard Gallant just insists on playing Barclay Goodrow on a line with Artemi Panarin instead of him. Panarin has a 3.3 xGF/60 with Lafreniere and a 2.8 xGF/60 with Goodrow. That Panarin-Trocheck-Lafreniere line was about to pop and he busted it up.
Matt Larkin: I mean…how can we not say so to this point? He was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft. He has 33 goals and 61 points through 156 NHL games. The more interesting question to me is whether he’ll remain a bust. He’s showing some improvement under the hood this season. In 5-on-5 play, he’s blowing away his previous career rates in play driving rates, from shot attempts to shots on goal to expected goals. He’s generating almost double the individual scoring chances per 60 minutes this season compared to his first two seasons. So, there are signs of an impending breakout if his puck luck can improve. He scored on more than 17 percent of his shots in each of his first two seasons, while he sits at five percent this year. I actually like him as a buy-low target.
I have 7 injured players but can only put/keep 5 on IR. Rielly, jvr, vrana , teravainen, patches, duclair, Palat. Keep 5 drop 2. Thanks
— Pash (@postmanpash) November 22, 2022Nick Alberga: Drop JVR and Vrana. You can always circle back on JVR down the road, I’m not sure fantasy owners are rushing to own any Flyers right now if you know what I’m saying. On top of that, the Vrana situation is an unpredictable one, there’s no telling when he’ll be ready to return to the Red Wings lineup.
Brock Seguin: I would drop James van Riemsdyk without question. And then either Tuevo Teravainen or Ondrej Palat. It’s tough without knowing exactly what’s going on with Jakub Vrana, but he has a lot more upside than both of them if he returns. I’d probably drop Teravainen. He’s a great source of assists but isn’t going to score you a lot of goals; not really worth waiting on.
Matt Larkin: I’d keep Morgan Rielly, Max Pacioretty, Teuo Teravainen, Ondrej Palat and Jakub Vrana. You could convince me to keep Anthony Duclair over Vrana, though, since Vrana’s timeline to return to the NHL is so unpredictable given it’s a personal situation and not an injury that he’s dealing with.
Hi guys, Is it time to worry about doughty? Or should I try to trade him for name value. He is no where near the pace he was on last year, not even backend categories. I picked up petry for hits and blocks in the time being. Thanks
— Anthony Maltese (@maltesea) November 23, 2022Nick Alberga: No, I’m not worried about Doughty. It’s a long season, he’s just off to a slow start. Because of that, I’m not sure you’ll be able to get respectable trade value right now anyway, so I’d say you’re better off hanging tight. Be patient.
Brock Seguin: If you can get draft day value (ADP – 79.1) on him, like Shea Theodore (ADP – 86.5), then it would be a no-brainer. He’s been rather unlucky, shooting just 2.6% and an on-ice SH% of just 8.5%. If those bounce back as expected, he should be good for like six goals and 30 assists the rest of the way (if healthy). I’m not worried about him, but he’s also probably not going to live up to the draft stock.
Matt Larkin: I think it’s fair to have some long-term concern. Doughty turns 33 in a couple weeks, and he has a lot of wear and tear on his body after years of playing so many minutes. He missed much of last season due to wrist surgery. He’s not done being a useful fantasy D-man, but he’s not a lock to be an elite D1 ever again. I like the idea of exploring a trade market for him. What if you targeted Jakob Chychrun, who is just back from injury and has massive upside?
Laine just got dropped in my league. Is he worth stashing on IR if I’d have to drop Zucker or Kempe when he’s back?
— TyDee (@hockeyfreak37) November 23, 2022Nick Alberga: Yes, don’t think twice about it, either. By far, he’s an upgrade over Zucker and/or Kempe, especially with that long-term attachment to Johnny Gaudreau. Pick up and stash Laine immediately, I’m forecasting a monster second half for him.
Brock Seguin: He is 100 percent worth stashing and would be an upgrade over both of those players.
Matt Larkin: Absolutely. He’s a must-stash. And dropping Jason Zucker is the easy decision here. We know who he is at this point of his career. He’s 30 years old and has eclipsed 30 goals and 50 points once. He’s the definition of “meh” as a fantasy commodity.