DFO Roundtable: Which late-season hot streak is legit?
During the NHL season’s final month, it’s common to see certain teams and players suddenly show signs of life after laboring through down years. But are the late-season surges harbingers of success next season and beyond? Or are they merely examples of teams and players producing when the pressure is off?
For this week’s Roundtable, the Daily Faceoff crew members pick teams or players whose strong stretch-run play will be sustained through next season. Which heaters are for real?
FRANK SERAVALLI: I’m going to go with a player: Josh Norris of the Ottawa Senators. I’m not sure how much love Norris has gotten outside of Canada’s capital, but I think he’s a legitimate star in the making. Since March 1, Norris is 11th in the league with 12 goals in 17 games, one more than Alex Ovechkin has in that span. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a 50-goal scorer like Ovechkin, but Norris’ season has been incredibly impressive. The 22-year-old has hit 30 goals for the first time – and he did it in 52 games. He’s centering a line with Brady Tkachuk and Mathieu Joseph now that could be a solid preview for next season. He’s won his fair share of 800-plus faceoffs this season, and he’s delivered with an impressive eight game-winning goals this year. By the way, half those game-winners were scored in the last five weeks, when games are hardest to win – tying him for fourth in the league over that stretch. Trust the process, Ottawa.
MATT LARKIN: I believe in Elias Pettersson’s late-season scoring binge. One of the hallmarks of coach Bruce Boudreau’s career has been his ability to unlock players’ potential and instill a positive working environment. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before he figured out how to get Pettersson back on the superstar trajectory he showed in his Calder Trophy season. It took longer than I expected, but he has seven goals in his past six games and, zooming out, 19 goals and 38 points in his past 33 games. That rate of production projects to 47 goals and 94 points on an 82-game schedule. That feels like a fair projection to make for ‘Petey’ next season. He’s back, baby.
SCOTT BURNSIDE: So, 11 years and counting for the Buffalo Sabres. I’m old enough to remember the walk to the rink and the folks happily tailgating their brains out underneath the cement overpasses and in the nooks and crannies leading to the arena district getting ready for a playoff tilt. Been a long time for a hardy fan base, that’s for sure. But it has to stop somewhere, right? Well, doesn’t it? I think this logic is why Las Vegas casinos have all the money. But I digress. Maybe it’s recency bias, maybe it’s just wishing Sabres fans would have something other than Rick Jeanneret retirement night to entice them back to the rink, but I believe in this Sabres team. I believe in head coach Don Granato and I believe in the glimmers of hope we have seen from a Sabres team that has knocked off legitimate playoff squads like Toronto, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Calgary and Nashville in recent days. Tage Thompson is a beast. Rasmus Dahlin seems to be finally getting it. Owen Power is coming. Could ‘The Streak’ come to a halt in ’23? That’s a tall order, but I’ll say they finish ahead of Ottawa, Montreal and Detroit in the Atlantic and will play meaningful games into 2023.
CHRIS GEAR: I was going to say the Sabres, but Scott beat me to it, so I will stick in New York State and say the Islanders will be back to form in 2022-23. The Isles got off to a terrible start this year, thanks in large part to commencing the season on a 13-game road trip while they waited for their new building to be completed. The Islanders looked and played like the travel-weary team they probably were, compiling a 9-12-6 record through the end of December. They have gone 23-16-3 since the calendar flipped over to 2022 and have looked much more like the team that took the champion Tampa Bay Lightning to seven games in the Eastern Conference final last season. The Islanders’ aging core of veterans is still a concern for me long-term, but their late-season surge demonstrates that they are still too good and too well-coached to fall off the map just yet.
MIKE MCKENNA: Being the resident ‘goalie guy’ for Daily Faceoff, I didn’t want to let anyone down. So I’m staying in my lane with Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders. He’s been excellent all season. Sorokin has a .927 save percentage and 2.30 goals-against average. But those robust statistics can largely be attributed to his outstanding play since the NHL All-star break. Sorokin has played 18 games since the pause and posted an NHL second-best .932 save percentage, higher than Vezina-trophy favorite Igor Shesterkin’s. If Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello can increase his team’s scoring this coming offseason, I have no doubt Sorokin will be a Vezina trophy candidate next season. His game is stout mechanically and Sorokin is still learning the tendencies of NHL players. Once he starts racking up the wins, people will take notice. Until then, Sorokin will remain under the radar.
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