Does a major goaltending change loom for the Philadelphia Flyers?

Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

It took just five games into the NHL regular season for the Philadelphia Flyers’ goaltending to become a topic of discussion. Even for Philadelphia, which is notorious for having turbulent puck-stopping, this may be a new record.

Sitting with a record of 1-3-1 after Saturday’s home opener, a 3-0 loss to the Vancouver Canucks, the alarm bells are sounding for the state of the team’s crease. To be fair, Samuel Ersson – who, for all intents and purposes, is the team’s starter – has (mainly) avoided the shrapnel chucked the goaltending’s way; the lion’s share of the criticism has, justifiably, been laid at the feet of Ivan Fedotov.

Fedotov, who turns 28 next month, has struggled mightily in two starts this season, both of which the Flyers lost, sporting less than pedestrian numbers (6.08 goals against average and .818 save percentage). Both losses can, objectively speaking, be laid at the feet of Fedotov. Outshooting the opposition a combined 65 to 61 in both games, while the Flyers did not dominate their competition, per se, they certainly played well enough to win in both outings. For further context on Fedotov’s isolated impact on the games, he ranks fourth from the bottom league-wide in goals saved above expected per 60, per Money Puck.

Fedotov was brought over from the KHL late last season, inking a two year, $6.55 million contract extension before last season’s end, and Fedotov’s $3.275 million AAV was criticized before the ink was dry. I’ve been told the player’s camp was pushing for more term, which the Flyers resisted, adamant on keeping it to two years.

Though Fedotov was considered one of the best goaltenders in the KHL in the years leading up to his NHL arrival – including a championship win with CSKA Moskow in 2021-22 – the money seemed a little hefty for a netminder with no North American experience. He also missed significant time due to military service in Russia, which delayed his arrival to North America and resulted in his contract being tolled.

While I can’t say with certainty how much of a runway Fedotov has left to get his game back on track, the question is fair to ask: how long can the Flyers trot Fedotov out there playing at this caliber?

Described to me as a “blocking” type of goaltender, Fedotov has routinely allowed goals on which shots go right through him – including two against the Seattle Kraken. For a (relatively) unathletic goaltender who isn’t the strongest with his lateral movement, allowing straight-line shots to leak right through is not a recipe for success.

Fedotov can help quiet things down with his own play – I would assume he will get at least one more outing, presumably this coming Wednesday versus the Washington Capitals in the back end of a home and home – but we can’t ignore a looming decision on Aleksei Kolosov’s future.

Kolosov, 22, caused a stir during the summer (and into training camp) when he initially refused to return to North America. Believed to be pushing for another year of a loan back to the KHL, Kolosov did eventually show up to the Flyers training camp, with the team and the player’s camp believed to have come to an agreement.

The belief has been (and continues to be) that Kolosov feels he should be in the NHL; if not, then he’d prefer to return to Russia for one more season to be Minsk’s starter. I’ve heard rumblings that many KHL teams have been telling their players that the AHL is inferior competition to the KHL as a way to keep its talent in Russia. Is this what has happened with Kolosov? I can’t say with certainty one way or the other, but it wouldn’t shock me if he’s getting pressure to return back to Minsk.

As Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman mentioned a few weeks back in his 32 Thoughts column, the Flyers need to make a decision with Kolosov by the end of the month. The Flyers, while not super fond of this idea, are open to a trade with Kolosov; a second round selection is the desired asking price. Aside from that, the two options are Kolosov returning back to the KHL on loan or sticking with the Flyers.

A three-goaltender system benefits nobody in this situation, so that is off the table. So should Kolosov stick, something will have to give.

I’m told that Kolosov is slated to start both weekend games for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms this weekend. One could assume this is a final audition for Kolosov to lobby himself for an NHL job; he currently sports a pedestrian 3.06 GAA and .878 SV% in three appearances this season with the Phantoms.

Depending on how the chips fall with how both Fedotov and Kolosov play over the next seven days, I do think that the former could find himself on the waiver wire. Fedotov’s $3.275 million AAV protects him from a waiver claim, more than one NHL executive has told me; in this particular case, the higher salary benefits the team and will, in all likelihood, means they will keep their player. A hypothetical Fedotov demotion would also save the Flyers money on the salary cap.

Should Fedotov be waived, it would allow the Flyers to bury about $1.1 million of his AAV. Kolosov’s AAV is $925,000, which would save the Flyers north of $100,000 on the salary cap, combined with Fedotov’s demotion. Not a monumental difference, but every penny counts in the current financial landscape of the NHL. The comparable combined cap hit with either situation is indicative of how the Flyers strategically planned out their goaltending contracts.

Both Ersson’s ($1.45 million AAV) and Kolosov’s deals were set to expire in the summer of 2026. This was kept in mind when negotiating the Fedotov deal, which is why the Flyers were adamant about the two-year term rather than the dollar value. Whether it was Fedotov or Kolosov backing up Ersson, they knew that the combined cap hit of their goaltending would, more or less, be $4.7 million through the 2025-26 season.

While the Fedotov AAV, in a vacuum, is high, it was a risk the Flyers were able to take because of the coast certainty with Ersson and Kolosov. Though one goaltender may be overpaid, a $4.7 million total allocation of salary to your goaltending is not a lot by any means. The two year window with all three goaltenders was meant to accomplish one thing: give clarity on who would be their “guy” once each one needed to be “paid.”

In the case of Fedotov, talent aside, he could never really be considered a goaltender of the future. He will be less than five months away from his 30th birthday by the time he is due a new contract; even if he gets his game back on track, it will be tough to commit long term dollars to a goaltender of that age. Fedotov has always been looked at as a stop gap goaltender to platoon with one of the younger guys while the Flyers evaluated their in-house talent.

The question will likely come down to whether the Flyers want to hitch their wagon to Ersson or Kolosov ahead of the 2026-27 campaign. Aside from that, they will also have a better idea on the progressions of prospect goaltenders Carson Bjarnason and Yegor Zavragin by then.

Bjarnason, a 2023 second round pick, will be turning pro next year while Zavragin, a third-round selection in the same year, is under contract in the KHL until 2027. In the case of Zavragin, more than one person I’ve spoken with believes that he has the best chance of being the best of all five aforementioned goaltenders.

The current outlook is a little bleak, but there is a real chance that the Flyers could have an embarrassment of riches in net sometime soon; the challenge is navigating through stormy waters in the present. There isn’t a clear indication of which way the Flyers will go, but I would expect better clarity on the Flyers’ goaltending situation by the end of the month.

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Does a major goaltending change loom for the Philadelphia Flyers?

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