Don’t count Leo Carlsson out of the NHL’s Calder Trophy race

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not easy going No. 2 behind a future NHL superstar.

Any time Leo Carlsson answered questions from the media leading up to the 2023 NHL Draft, there were nearly as many questions about Connor Bedard as there were about the Swedish forward himself. He always handled it with class, even with the difficulty of dealing with a secondary language, and a stutter to boot.

But when the Anaheim Ducks made the surprising decision to select Carlsson with the second pick behind the near-consensus of Adam Fantilli, the discourse again was shifted to someone else.

So in a way, Carlsson feels more underrated than some of the other names taken around him. Part of that boils down to the market he plays in, which is out of Carlsson’s control. He doesn’t have the flashy aspect to his game that saw Bedard become the top prospect in the world. He also didn’t have one of the best college freshman seasons to his name, either.

Instead, Carlsson played an effective two-way game against men in one of the best pro leagues in the world – and thrived. He deserves your respect.

Carlsson made his NHL debut with the Ducks last night, and he made his presence known. The Ducks lost, but his wrister at 1:01 in the third period tied the game at two apeice. His advanced analytics were nothing special, but, hey, it’s a young team up against one of the best in the league. It’s not an easy debut to make when everyone else has already been busy. After a quiet preseason saw him register just one assist before suffering a lower-body injury, the goal had to feel like a relief.

Carlsson plays a strong power-forward game, using his frame and overall strength to win puck battles. He has a cannon of a release, which, yielding 10 goals in 44 games last year as a draft-eligible prospect in the SHL, was quite something. Give him time and space on the man advantage and he’ll make you pay.

So much of Carlsson’s value is off the scoresheet. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli compared Carlsson’s two-way play to that of former Boston Bruins star Patrice Bergeron (and it still hurts to write “former”). Carlsson is bigger at 6-foot-3, but he excels defensively and knows a thing or two about setting his linemates up.

Scouts were split on Carlsson’s offensive potential in the NHL, with most expecting him to at least put up 50 points a year. But it’s far more than the scoresheet that makes Carlsson valuable – he has an excellent net-front presence. Using his size to get in the way, and making himself difficult to push away, Carlsson could make a living just by capitalizing on rebounds – even with a wrist shot release as nice as his.

“Carlsson would probably have put up a point-per-game last year if they gave assists for successful net screens resulting in a goal,” a scout said. “The things he does to help goals happen that doesn’t get rewarded on the scoresheet is tremendous.”

Carlsson beat defenders by outskating and outmuscling them when playing against his own age group. He won’t have that luxury against NHL defenders, but he plays an aggressive forecheck that he already put on display on Thursday. Like any rookie, it’s all about harnessing their skills and adjusting to the best competition they’ve ever had to deal with. The exploits that made them dominant junior players won’t work anymore, and Bedard’s realizing that in Chicago.

It’s easy to forget Carlsson is just 18. It’s a lot to ask to leave familiar territory back home to a culture you’re not accustomed to, fight off an injury and immediately play on the top line in the toughest league in the world. So expect growing pains. But if we’re looking at what made him a top prospect – and maybe the average fan didn’t get a good chance to see it last year – we’re talking about someone who can do a bit of everything. Mix in the desirable frame, and Carlsson is built to be a long-term star in this league.

It’s Bedard’s Calder Trophy to lose. And while he’s showing some incredible signs, he’s not producing at an extreme rate or anything yet. Once Carlsson gets adjusted, you should expect results as long as he sticks with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry. He’s such a fascinating forward in today’s NHL, where speed and skill are king. Mix Carlsson’s quick stride with his physicality, and you’ve got one heck of a force.

Don’t sleep on Carlsson. He’s going to surprise you.

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Don’t count Leo Carlsson out of the NHL’s Calder Trophy race

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