Down 3-1 to the Toronto Maple Leafs, are the Tampa Bay Lighting still in the fight?

Fans used the #AskDFO inbox to ask Daily Faceoff Live hosts Frank Seravalli and Colby Cohen which team down 3-1 had the best chance of coming back to win their first round matchup. On Thursday’s edition of the show, Cohen and Seravalli agreed that the Tampa Bay Lightning are the only team of the three with a chance, but debated just how realistic that chance is.

Frank Seravalli: Of the teams that are down 3-1, so that’s Florida, Winnipeg, and Tampa, which team has the best shot of coming back?

Colby Cohen: I don’t think any of them come back but if I’m going to put my eggs in one basket it has to be Tampa Bay, the reason for that being Vasilevskiy. Another reason being the Maple Leafs and their history up 3-1. That has not been a friendly lead for them in recent years. At the end of the day, Frank, I don’t think any of those teams are coming back from being down 3-1, but if I had to put my money somewhere I’ll always go with Tampa Bay.

Frank Seravalli: I’m with you, I don’t think it happens for Winnipeg or Florida, but I will say this, I think it is absolutely critical for the Toronto Maple Leafs to close this out in Game 5. Lose Game 5 on home ice and suddenly they’re going back to Tampa trying to avoid Game 7. If Tamapa can win one game at home to force Game 7, all of the sudden all the monsters start creeping out from under the Toronto Maple Leafs’ beds again.

There was so much celebrating after Game 4 I thought the Leafs won the series and I missed it. I get that the comeback was crazy, such a big deal for that franchise to break through with Auston Matthews’s signature moment, but what fan base other than Toronto would celebrate getting to three wins like that?

Colby Cohen: That’s a fair point, but this isn’t the Tampa Bay team that we’ve seen over the last few years. They have some injuries. We don’t know how healthy Point is after the other night with Morgan Rielly. We don’t know how healthy Hedman is; for him to miss a game earlier in the series, something had to have been pretty wrong with him. I think this is the Leafs’ year to finally get through, but if I have to bet on a team down 3-1, it’s an easy choice for the Lightning.

Frank Seravalli: When you look at NHL history, it’s not uncommon for teams to force a Game 7 down 3-1, and 12 percent of teams actually come all the way back to win the series. Certainly a lot on the line for the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday evening.

You can watch the entire episode here…