Each Metropolitan Division team’s top breakthrough candidate for the second half of the 2022–23 season
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After a day off, we’re back for Part 3 of our “Breakthrough Candidates” series here at Daily Faceoff. We’ve already looked at the Pacific and Central Divisions, which means it’s time to shift our focus over to the Eastern Conference.
Wouldn’t you know it: Andrew Mangiapane and Barrett Hayton both scored on Tuesday after we picked them to headline Parts 1 and 2 of this series. Perhaps the tides will also soon shift in favor of the eight Metropolitan Division players listed below.
For whatever reason, this list (as was also the case with our Pacific entry) is primarily populated by established NHL players looking to break out of ruts. Conversely, our Central list was full of upstart youngsters looking to take the league by storm. That’s just the way the cookie crumbles, but our criterion is the same for players young and old: if it looks as though you’re primed to go on a run, you’re eligible.
Let’s kick things off in Raleigh with a player we just happened to reference on Monday when talking about Sam Gagner as the Winnipeg Jets’ top breakthrough candidate …
All figures in this article are sourced from Natural Stat Trick, except when otherwise stated.
Carolina Hurricanes: Paul Stastny — The typically reliable Stastny has been kept in check for much of the season to date, scoring just two goals and 13 points in his first 40 games as a Hurricane. Despite ranking sixth on the Hurricanes with 6.64 individual expected goals, Stastny has only tallied once at 5-on-5. Switching teams is never easy to begin with, but this is Stastny’s first experience playing for an Eastern Conference club in his entire 17-season NHL career. With all the talent around him on a stacked Hurricanes team, it certainly isn’t hard to imagine Stastny picking it up considerably down the stretch, though it remains to be seen if the Canes trade for another forward, potentially pushing Stastny down the depth chart.
Paul Stastny gets a nice redirect on Pesce's point drive for a power play goal, Hurricanes strike early!#LetsGoCanes pic.twitter.com/Ty0jlnA3Lm
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) January 6, 2023Columbus Blue Jackets: Cole Sillinger — As one of only two 2021 picks to appear in more than half his team’s games during the 2021–22 regular season, Sillinger led that draft class in scoring for quite a while. Not anymore. Matty Beniers now reigns supreme atop the clubhouse leaderboard, with J.J. Moser also hot on Sillinger’s heels. And while Beniers and Moser have both had productive 2022–23 campaigns, Sillinger is in the midst of a classic sophomore slump. The 19-year-old forward has two goals and seven points in 37 games with this year’s Blue Jackets, but don’t lose hope: Sillinger is the second-youngest player in the NHL and he certainly won’t shoot 4.2% forever.
New Jersey Devils: Yegor Sharangovich — Jack Hughes’ Belarusian running mate is currently mired in a bit of a scoring slump. Sharangovich has been stuck at 10 goals on the year since the holiday break and has seen his ice time drop significantly over his last four games. The 24-year-old sniper potted 24 goals last season but might be in tough to reach 20 again this year unless he picks it up — although, with the notoriously hot-and-cold Sharangovich, “picking it up” can mean going on a five-game scoring streak out of the blue. Maybe this will help: Sharangovich was slotted onto a new line with Hughes and Dawson Mercer at the Devils’ most recent skate.
New York Islanders: Jean-Gabriel Pageau — The overachieving Islanders are right in the thick of a playoff race, but Ilya Sorokin isn’t the only player on that team pulling his weight. Pageau somehow only just turned 30 (it feels like he’s been around forever) and is still very much an effective contributor on this Islanders team. He’s one of only a handful of Isles regulars sporting an expected goals percentage north of 50 and currently ranks fifth on the team with 5.65 individual expected goals at 5-on-5. But while Pageau has 10 goals through 42 games this year, all but one have come in special teams situations. He’s shooting just two percent at 5-on-5! Those pucks are bound to start going in soon.
New York Rangers: Vincent Trocheck — While he certainly hasn’t been bad in his debut go-round on Broadway, Trocheck still has yet to really get into a groove with his new team. The good news: he’s overdue for some bounces to go his way. Trocheck has the worst on-ice shooting percentage (6.90) of any Ranger and has scored just three times all year at 5-on-5 compared to his team-leading 8.62 individual expected goals. Through his first 42 games with the Rangers, Trocheck has scored on just four percent of his shots at full strength. With a little bit more luck, Trocheck’s decent first half could lead directly into a sizzling stretch drive.
Vinny Trocheck with the back-check and the power play goal!!
4-2 #NYR pic.twitter.com/beXahmGbkE
Philadelphia Flyers: Joel Farabee — Get this: Farabee has zero points on the power play this year. Zero! On the surface, Farabee having just nine goals and 23 points in 41 games might be a little disappointing … but every single one of those points has come at 5-on-5. Of all the NHL players with zero power-play points this year, Farabee has played the most at 5-on-4 (87:46). Farabee certainly isn’t a perfect player (particularly in his own end of the ice) but his raw numbers have been tanked by the Flyers’ flat-out atrocious PP. Otherwise, he’s been a pretty efficient scorer on one of the league’s worst teams.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Ty Smith — Opportunity knocks in Pittsburgh. With Jeff Petry on the shelf and Kris Letang away from the team while mourning the loss of his father, the Penguins have needed defensemen to step up in the interim. One of those players has been Ty Smith, who has logged a ton of minutes (and looked good doing it) since being recalled from AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in late December. Smith has three points in five games and the Penguins have outshot their opposition 41–27 with him on the ice at 5-on-5. When the Penguins get their regulars back, it might be difficult for head coach Mike Sullivan to justify sitting Smith over, say, Chad Ruhwedel or Jan Rutta.
Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie — It’s been a bit of a rough go for Oshie this year. The 36-year-old winger is stuck at two 5-on-5 goals through 26 games and boasts the worst on-ice expected goals percentage (44.61) of any Capitals regular. Is this the new normal for the wily vet? We sure hope not. It’s entirely possible Oshie hasn’t fully gotten back up to speed after missing 17 games with various injuries this season. The Capitals have been pretty good and it’s hard to point to many other players who have underperformed to a significant extent, save for Oshie. We’ll go out on a limb and say he turns it around eventually — after all, he’s still firing the puck at a decent clip. Plus, the returns of both Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson should provide a boost for everybody on the team.
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