Eight early-season NHL stats that actually mean something

Washington Capitals left winger Alex Ovechkin

Credit: Sep 27, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) smiles during a stoppage in play against the Columbus Blue Jackets in the second period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Fiddling around with early-season NHL statistics is a risky game. It can inspire some takes that end up looking ludicrous later in the season. We don’t want to declare Tom Wilson a candidate to become the league’s first 100-goal scorer, for instance.

But there are exceptions. Some early-season numbers can be handy in confirming suspicions we had going into the year or, in the case of analytics, refuting what the surface statistics tell us.

Here are eight stats that have caught my eye so far in 2024-25 – and why they’re relevant.

Alex Ovechkin averages the most individual high-danger chances of his career.

Alexander the GR8 has only scored once in the Washington Capitals’ first four games, but this isn’t the same version of him who struggled out of the gate last year. He’s getting plenty of quality looks, and not just from his office on the power play. This time around, luck has been the culprit, as evidenced by a career-low shooting percentage of 7.7. I’m not saying he’ll ever be 50-goal Ovi again, but early on he resembles the guy who turned back the clock and had a productive second half last season.

Among goalies with more than two games, Jake Oettinger leads the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60.

At 25 and armed with a shiny new eight-year, $66 million contract, Oettinger is showing early signs of having that season we’ve all been waiting for, the one that launches him into the Vezina Trophy discussion and solidifies him as a top-three goalie on the planet. He looks phenomenal early on. If he keeps it up, not only will he enjoy his best season yet, but he could cause a goalie controversy when Team USA tries to decide between him, Connor Hellebuyck, Jeremy Swayman and Thatcher Demko for the 4 Nations Face-Off roster.

Zach Hyman averages the fewest 5-on-5 shots of his career but the most shot attempts.

The snakebitten Hyman has never put fewer pucks on net per 60 than he has through the Edmonton Oilers‘ first six games. But the career-best rate in shot attempts tells us he’s still trying and giving himself chances or, uh, chances at chances. Surely, more of those pucks will start hitting the net soon given his penchant for getting high-percentage looks in tight. It’s too soon to worry, even if last year’s career-best shooting percentage fuelled what will go down as an outlier in goals at 54.

No player has more shots 90 mph or better than Evan Bouchard, per NHL EDGE.

The Bouch Bombs remain plentiful. Don’t worry for a second that he’s managed one goal and six points through six games. He and the entire Oilers attack will shake off their bad luck son enough.

Cole Caufield has scored on 30 percent of his shots.

From his junior days through his early NHL career, Caufield has always looked like someone destined to challenge for a Rocket Richard Trophy someday, yet he hasn’t even scored 30 goals in the NHL yet thanks to (a) an injury-shortened 2022-23 in which he would’ve done it easily and (b) a cursed 2023-24 in which he was one of NHL’s least lucky shooters. So far this season, he’s buried six goals in six games, buoyed by a whopping 30 percent conversion rate. That will come down, but Caufield is a talented sniper who could keep his number north of 15 percent for much of the year. He also generates a ton of volume, which offsets the impending luck regression, so all signs point to a true breakout year with the Montreal Canadiens.

Among goalies with more than one game played, Alexandar Georgiev is dead last in goals saved above expected per 60.

Georgiev struggled all last year in the regular season and the playoffs and isn’t showing signs of a turnaround. He has only been a top-drawer starting goalie for one season, mixing in five up-and-down years as a backup and the poor 2023-24 as a starter. So it’s possible that one great 2022-23 campaign, in which he finished seventh in the Vezina vote, goes down the as exception. The Colorado Avalanche’s goaltending situation is a nightmare right now, especially since Justus Annunen isn’t playing well either.

Philip Broberg has reached the third-highest top skating speed of any NHL defenseman (23.27 mph), per NHL EDGE.

He’s big, smooth, fast as hell, and he’s averaging a point per game so far for the St. Louis Blues, who snatched him and Dylan Holloway from the Oilers with summer offer sheets. The Blues have yet to surrender a 5-on-5 goal with Broberg on the ice through six games.

The Morgan Rielly/Chris Tanev pair ranks fourth in the NHL in expected goal share.

The Toronto Maple Leafs went all-in on a six-year deal paying Tanev until he’s 40 because they understood the short-term importance of having a true shutdown smotherer for their top pair. Tanev has been exactly as advertised so far, tilting the ice alongside Rielly. The Leafs have a 65.64 percent expected goal percentage with those two on the ice. The high-danger chances are 17 to 6 Toronto with Rielly and Tanev out there. They’ve been on the ice together for one 5-on-5 goal in six games. If Tanev can stay healthy and avoid a serious shot-blocking injury, he’ll be a game changer.

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