Fantasy Hockey 2024-25: Bounce-Back Candidates
Every year we see player’s production fall off, but not all cases are equal. Some player’s disappointing seasons can be attributed to injury, some to bad luck, and others to advancing age or declining play. Figuring out which players will bounce back the next season can lead to finding draft-day steals. Here are my eight favourite bounce-back candidates for the 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey season.
Tage Thompson (BUF – C/RW – ADP: 47.9)
Thompson was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy hockey last season, failing to live up to the hype following his 47-goal breakout campaign in 2022-23. Thompson got off to a relatively slow start thanks to some uncharacteristically poor finishing, but still managed to tally six goals and six assists through his first 15 games before being struck by a shot in the wrist. Thompson was initially expected to be sidelined for about 1-2 months, but the Sabres rushed him back from the injury just three weeks later.
While fantasy managers rejoiced at the time, Thompson didn’t quite look like himself when he returned, and the elite shot that helped him rack up 47 goals the year before was missing. The volume was still there, but the finishing woes continued, as Thompson scored just 12 goals on 136 shots over his next 37 games. He looked to be the biggest bust of the fantasy season, but those who survived his poor performances were rewarded with a return to form during the fantasy playoffs.
Thompson scored 11 goals and added ten assists over his final 18 games while firing 58 shots on goal, finally living up to the billing as a late first/early second-round fantasy draft pick. Now heading into the season with a clean bill of health, if the 27-year-old is at all able to replicate the form he had to end the year and flirt with the production he put up in the 2022-23 season, he will be an absolute slam dunk of a pick at his current ADP of 47.9. He has an underrated supporting cast featuring the likes of Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin, and a potential breakout star in JJ Peterka.
Make no question about it: Thompson has league-winning upside and is being drafted at the back of the fourth round. Elite goal scorers are the hardest things to find in fantasy hockey, and Thompson has proven that he can be just that.
Dougie Hamilton (NJD – D – ADP: 65.7)
The path for Dougie Hamilton to enjoy a bounce-back campaign and return to his status as an elite fantasy defenseman is simple. He needs to stay healthy. Hamilton enjoyed another productive start to the 2023-24 season before a torn pectoral ended his season after just 20 games.
Entering this year with a clean bill of health, Hamilton’s role as the quarterback of what should be a deadly New Jersey power play should be secure. While some are suggesting Luke Hughes could threaten Dougie’s power-play time this season, last year’s results paint a different picture. The Devils boasted the league’s best power-play percentage at a ridiculous 36.8 percent conversion rate before Hamilton’s injury. Following his departure from the lineup, the team managed to score on just 17.0 percent of their opportunities – the fifth-worst rate in the NHL over that span.
Surrounded by an immense group of offensive talent and boasting some of the best shot volume of any blue-liner in the league, Hamilton has the potential to be a top-five fantasy defenseman if he can stay fit this season and he is being drafted as the 12th defender off the board. I am more than happy to take the gamble against his injury history at that price.
Tim Stützle (OTT – C/LW – ADP: 57.8)
Stützle was one of the most underwhelming draft picks in fantasy hockey last season, as he failed to replicate the 39 goals and 51 assists he totalled in 2022-23. Some regression was expected after he enjoyed a personal shooting percentage of 17.1 percent, but no one could have anticipated the puck luck to have fallen off as sharply as it did.
Stützle’s shot volume remained fairly consistent in 2023-24 compared to the previous season. He totalled 192 shots in 75 games but converted on just 9.4 percent of them. Thanks to his elite playmaking ability, though, he still managed to rack up 52 assists despite also seeing a dropoff in his on-ice shooting percentage.
Stützle has proven to be one of the best young play drivers in the league, and a little bit of positive regression in his conversion rates is all that should be needed for him to eclipse a point per game once again this season. Still just 22 years of age, the added hope that we still may not have seen the best of this young talent is enough to make him an easy target at his ADP of 57.8.
Andrei Svechnikov (CAR – LW/RW – ADP: 45.4)
Svechnikov saw a decline in shot volume last year thanks to his ATOI falling to 16:59, but the 24-year-old winger still managed to end the season with 19 goals and 33 assists – good for 52 points across just 59 games. He also continued to register nearly three hits a game, finishing with 142 on the season, making him all the more valuable in banger leagues.
Teuvo Teravainen and Jake Guentzel were combining for 33 minutes a game at the end of last season – and their departures mean there are plenty of minutes up for grabs in the Hurricanes’ top-6. Injuries did limit Svechnikov to just 64 and 59 games over the last two seasons, respectively, but he enters the 2024-25 season with a clean bill of health and will need to be leaned on more heavily at 5v5 and on the power play.
If he sees the increased usage that we expect, Svechnikov has the shot and hit volume to be an across-the-board category filler similar to Brady Tkachuk and J.T. Miller, and you can get him nearly three rounds later. He has the upside to be one of the most valuable fantasy assets in those extended formats and is more than worth the roll of the dice at his ADP of 45.4
Martin Necas (CAR – C/RW – ADP: 122.4)
The argument for Necas bouncing back in 2024-25 is very similar to that of Svechnikov. After breaking out for 28 goals and 43 assists in the 2022-23 season, Necas saw his ice time cut by over a minute last season, and it had an obvious impact on his fantasy value. Impressively, his shot volume was nearly identical to the season prior, as he still managed to fire 231 shots on goal in 77 games.
His on-ice shooting percentage also fell off last season, finishing at 9.4 percent after achieving an 11.1 percent mark the previous season. We should see some positive regression there as Necas is expected to get a lot more exposure to Carolina’s premier offensive talents, which would go a long way to reversing the substantial drop-off in assists he saw a season ago. Currently being drafted in the 11th round, Necas will be a steal on draft day if he can maintain his shooting and chance creation rates in a more extended role.
Miro Heiskanen (DAL – D – ADP: 56.7)
After breaking out for 11 goals and 62 assists in 2022-23, Heiskanen took a step back last season. He finished the campaign with just 54 points across 71 games, but almost all of that dropoff can be attributed to a dip in power-play production. Heiskanen registered just 21 power-play points in 2023-24 after racking up 34 the season prior.
A mid-season injury can be almost entirely to blame for this, as the Stars seemed to lighten Heiskanen’s workload upon his return in preparation for their inevitable playoff run. Thomas Harley was given plenty of run on the team’s top power-play unit even after Heiskanen’s return to the lineup, but that trend did not last into the postseason. When the games mattered most, it was Heiskanen quarterbacking that deadly first unit, and it should be the same story at the beginning of this season.
Suppose he can stay healthy for the full 82 games and maintain his power-play spot alongside Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Jamie Benn. In that case, Heiskanen will reclaim his status as an elite fantasy defenseman in the upcoming season.
Darcy Kuemper (LAK – G – ADP: 103.1)
Kuemper struggled to the tune of an .890 SV% and a 3.31 GAA across 33 starts last season, losing his grip on the Capitals’ starting job to Charlie Lindgren by season’s end. A change of scenery was desperately needed to restore Kuemper’s fantasy value, and it is hard to imagine a better potential landing spot than where he ended up back in Los Angeles.
Kuemper will have only career backup David Rittich to battle for starts this season, and the Kings have proven to be one of the best teams to play behind in recent years. No team surrendered fewer shot attempts at 5v5 last season than the Kings, and only the Lightning allowed fewer scoring chances. Their elite defensive structure helped propel Cam Talbot to 27 wins and a .913 SV% last season after he struggled the year before in Ottawa.
Kuemper should receive the lion’s share of the starts for the Kings and won’t need to return anything better than league-average splits to rack up some wins and become a top-15 starting netminder in fantasy. He offers excellent value at his current ADP of 103.1 and should be a key target for any fantasy players who are planning on avoiding spending early draft capital at the position.
Joonas Korpisalo (BOS – G – ADP: 169.0)
Korpisalo’s workload and his ability to fulfill his potential as a bounce-back candidate this season will of course be directly tied to Jeremy Swayman’s contract negotiations. At the time of writing, the Bruins and Swayman are reportedly not close to a deal and any extended holdout from the restricted free agent will force the team to hand the early season reigns over to Korpisalo.
Korpisalo will be eager to forget a dreadful stop in Ottawa last season when he registered an .890 SV% and just 21 wins in 55 appearances, and playing behind a significantly stronger defensive team should go a long way. The Bruins were a top-10 team in scoring chances allowed and expected goals per 60 at 5v5 last season. Add in the fact that Boston tends to lighten the workload of their starting netminder more than most teams, and Korpisalo could be a sneaky source of fantasy production even after Swayman’s eventual return.