Fantasy Hockey 2024-25: Late-Round Sleepers

Brock Seguin
Brock Seguin(@Brock_Seguin)
Fantasy Hockey 2024-25: Late-Round Sleepers

I’ve already examined the best ADP Values at each position, but today, I will focus on the best sleeper targets in the late rounds.

To me, a sleeper is a player whose value is relatively unknown to the general public, which is why they’re going late in drafts. These players have the upside to drastically outperform their draft-day Average Draft Positions (ADP).

Forwards

Matvei Michkov (PHI – RW – ADP: 147.8)

Michkov is an elite prospect who dropped to No.7 overall in 2023 because he’s Russian, and there’s always fear that getting players to leave the KHL will be difficult. The 19-year-old joined the Flyers this summer and immediately projects to be a top-6 winger. He’s a fantastic puck handler and goal-scorer who had 19 goals and 22 assists (41 points) in 47 KHL games last year. That’s an NHLe of 72, according to hockeyprospecting.com. In their draft year, Michkov had an NHLe (56) similar to Connor Bedard (62). Bedard had an ADP of 37.3 in his rookie season despite having a horrendous surrounding cast. Michkov will have much more talented players to play with on a nightly basis and is being drafted nine rounds later. If Michkov’s NHLe directly translates, he could be a 30-plus goal and 35-plus assist player this year. There’s too much upside to pass on in the 13th round.

Macklin Celebrini (SJS – C – ADP: 157.1)

All of the points I made about Michkov also ring true for Celebrini. Bedard and Celebrini were both No.1 overall picks and had similar production in their draft years (according to hockeyprospecting.com). Celebrini won the Hobey Baker Award as a freshman after posting 32 goals and 32 assists (64 points) in 38 games at Boston University, which carries a 59 NHLe. Despite similar production and vastly better teammates, Celebrini is going 120 picks later than Bedard did in his rookie year. Celebrini also looked very comfortable in his first preseason game, scoring a goal and setting up Tyler Toffoli for a PPG on a gorgeous pass.

Viktor Arvidsson (EDM – LW – ADP: 160.6)

Whether or not Arvidsson can return value on this ADP depends on whether he can stay healthy. When he’s in the lineup, he produces. During his three years in Los Angeles, he averaged 27 goals, 36 assists (63 points) and 262 shots per 82 games. Throughout his career, he’s been an excellent 5v5 player who has not had to rely on the power play to produce. Only 13.8 percent of his points have come with the man advantage, so not getting PP1 time in Edmonton shouldn’t impact his performance as much as someone like Jeff Skinner if Edmonton keeps their elite PP1 intact this season. Arvidsson is expected to play with Leon Draisaitl and Skinner at 5v5, a line that could do plenty of damage. There’s a chance Arvidsson is a 35-35 player in 2024-25.

JJ Peterka (BUF – RW – ADP: 163.5)

A breakout for Peterka seems easy to project. Last year, he played almost exclusively as a second-line winger with Dylan Cozens, but this year, he’s already skating on the top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch in training camp. At the end of last year, we saw that the Sabres would trust him to play big minutes, as the 22-year-old averaged 20:26 TOI/GM in his final 13 games. It’s a small sample size, but he averaged 3.5 SOG/gm in that time and scored seven goals. He will undoubtedly play more than the 16:24 he averaged last year, and his production should increase significantly. In the modest amount of time (156:34) Peterka-Thompson-Tuch did see together last year, they scored at an outrageous rate (5.0 GF/60) while averaging a strong 31.4 SCF/60. Peterka will play a prime role in the Sabres’ offence this season and is already off to a hot start, scoring a hat-trick in his first preseason game and adding two assists in his second.

Adam Fantilli (CBJ – C – ADP: 169.2)

Fantilli missed 33 games in his rookie year but was starting to heat up before his season ended prematurely on January 28th. From December 1st to January 27th, Fantilli had 17 points (8G / 9A) and 54 SOG in 24 games. If you extrapolate that over 82 games, Fantilli was on a 27-goal, 31-assist and 185 SOG per 82-game pace. And that was all while averaging just 16:13 TOI/gm, a mark that should increase in year two. In the final 15 games of that run, he averaged 17:11 TOI/gm, so there’s full reason to expect Fantilli to play more and produce more in 2024-25.

Gabriel Vilardi (WPG – C,RW – ADP: 169.5)

Like Arvidsson, a bet on Vilardi is a bet on health. Vilardi was drafted injured and has battled injuries throughout his NHL career. In 2023-24, he missed 35 games but had a strong 47-game run in his first year with the Jets. Vilradi is expected to skate in a top-line role with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, a trio that scored 3.3 GF/60 last year. Vilardi was on-pace for over 200 shots, which could put him over 35 goals if he maintains an elite SH% (17.3 for his career). Additionally, if you’re in a league that counts PPG or PPP, Vilardi should be a great low-cost producer of both: nine PPG and 14 PPP in 47 games last year.

Nick Schmaltz (UTA – C,RW – ADP: 169.5)

Schmaltz rarely gets drafted in Fantasy Hockey but quickly becomes a waiver wire pickup and usually maintains a strong pace throughout the season. You might as well get in front of it and ensure he’s at the bottom of your roster in deep leagues. He put some durability concerns aside last year, appearing in a career-high 79 games. In the previous three seasons, he’s averaged 27 goals, 44 assists (71 points), 165 SOG, and 16 PPP per 82 games. These are similar numbers to what you’d get from someone like Brandon Hagel, who is going 60 picks earlier. Schmaltz should continue to play big minutes (19:03 ATOI) for a Utah team that should be better this year. If you’re looking for a breakout, you might want to look at some other names on this list, but if you want to lock in consistent production, Schmaltz is your guy.

Jake Neighbours (STL – LW,RW – ADP: 170.7)

Neighbours started the 2023-24 season as a bottom-6 option for the Blues and methodically worked his way up the depth chart and into more playing time. He started the season with just points (2G / 0A) in his first 15 games but finished with 36 points (25G / 11A) in his final 62 games. By the end of November, he was playing 20 minutes per game on occasion and averaged 16:57 TOI/gm from November 26th onward. Entering 2024-25, Neighbours will be a crucial cog in the Blues’ top-6 and top power-play unit and has 30-plus goal upside. He also carries additional value in banger leagues, averaging close to two hits per game. The 22-year-old should be viewed as similar to Chris Kreider, with high goal totals, modest assists, and strong hit contributions, but he can be selected 12 rounds later.

Dylan Guenther (UTA – RW – ADP: 180.0)

Guenther is the sleeper of all sleepers this fall. Don’t believe me? Look no further than the contract extension he just got. The Utah Hockey Club signed Guenther to an eight-year deal worth $7.14M AAV, despite him playing 78 career NHL games. The team clearly believes in his talent, and why wouldn’t they? He had 18 goals and 17 assists (35 points) in 45 games last year, including 18 points (10G / 8A) in his final 18 games. Guenther played 17:08 TOI/gm during that stretch, showcasing the type of usage you can expect this season. Putting too much stock into an 18-game sample size is tricky, but Guenther averaged 3.4 SOG/gm, a 279 SOG pace. If he can maintain anything close to that volume, Guenther should be a lock for 30 goals and could flirt with 40 goals this season. Guenther should provide 30-plus assists as well, so make sure you’re targeting him in the final couple of rounds in every one of your drafts.

Defensemen

Shayne Gostisbehere (CAR – D – ADP: 153.3)

Gostisbehere has bounced around the league recently but ended up back with the Hurricanes this offseason. He spent 23 games with them in 2023, posting three goals and seven assists. Since leaving Philadelphia, the veteran blueliner has quietly put together three outstanding offensive seasons in a row. During that stretch, he scored 37 goals (11th most among defensemen), 148 points (18th), 63 PPP (9th) and 445 SOG (38th). In the early part of training camp, Gostisbehere has been running the Hurricanes’ top power-play unit, a spot that should yield big fantasy numbers. The Hurricanes may have lost some key bodies in the offseason, but their top power-play unit remains intact. Carolina was second in the NHL in PP% (26.9%) last year.

Lane Hutson (MTL – D – ADP: 172.3)

Hutson will be coming into the NHL at the same age as Luke Hughes did. In Hutson’s Draft+2 year, he put up nearly identical numbers (NHLe: 45) as Hughes did (NHLe: 43). It didn’t take Hughes long to become a fantasy commodity, posting 47 points (9G / 38A) in 82 games last year. It cost you a 10th-round pick (ADP: 119.7) to draft Hughes, Hutson is only being drafted in 28 percent of leagues (ADP: 172.3). Hutson has a road-block (Mike Matheson) in his way of PP1 time, but it feels like he’ll inevitably be on that unit at some point this season. The rookie is too talented to send to Laval (AHL) and too talented to keep off PP1. It’s a good problem for the Canadiens to have. If you want a taste of what Huston can do, check out this pass from training camp.

Goalies

Justus Annunen (COL – G – ADP: 156.8)

Annunen didn’t see much action at the NHL level last year (14 games), but he was great when he did. The 24-year-old netminder was 8-4-1 with a 2.25 GAA and .928 SV% in the NHL and 14-5-4 with a 2.65 GAA and .908 SV% in the AHL. Alexander Georgiev struggled last year (.897 SV%) but still led the NHL in wins for the second straight year. If Annunen continues to play well and Georgiev doesn’t bounce back, Annunen will eat into his workload. Even if it’s a 60-40 split, Annunen will be a great option in his roughly 30 starts and gives you a high-upside option as your No.3 fantasy netminder. According to the Sportsbooks, the Avalanche have the second-highest projected point total, so Annunen and Georgiev will be in line for a lot of wins this season.

Arturs Silovs (VAN – G – ADP: 165.3)

There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding Thatcher Demko’s injury entering the season, and it’s looking more and more likely that he won’t be available when the Canucks’ break camp in October. Vancouver just signed Kevin Lankinen as insurance, which indicates where they think Demko is at right now. If Demko misses the season’s start, Silovs would likely see the lion’s share of the starts in a timeshare with Lankinen. After Demko got hurt in the playoffs, Silovs played well and showed he could carry the water while Demko is sidelined. The Canucks will be in the mix for the playoffs this season, so their starting goalie will provide a lot of fantasy value. He’s only being drafted in 25 percent of leagues (ADP: 165.3), which will likely continue to rise as the preseason continues and Demko’s injury lingers.

Dustin Wolf (CGY – G – ADP: 167.4)

Jacob Markstrom was traded to New Jersey in the offseason, leaving Wolf as the Flames’ No.1 netminder entering this season. Someone needs to start games, and Wolf is the favourite, ahead of Dan Vladar, who has a .888 SV% over the last two seasons. Wolf’s outstanding AHL numbers (2.29 GAA & .926 SV% in 141 games) have yet to translate to the NHL level to this point, but drafting him in the 14th round is a low-risk/high-reward bet that Wolf’s talent finally shines through for the Flames. According to the Sportsbooks, Calgary is projected to have the sixth-fewest points this season, so Wolf isn’t going to win you 30 games, but as your No.3 or even No.4 fantasy netminder, you can be picky with his matchups. And if the Flames end up being better than expected, he’ll be a total steal.

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