Fantasy Hockey 2025-26 – Nick Szeman’s ADPs to Avoid
Draft season is all about finding value, but just as important is avoiding landmines. Every year, a handful of players get pushed up draft boards by hype, name value, or recency bias, leaving fantasy managers paying a premium that doesn’t match the likely return.
In this series, our five Fantasy Hockey analysts highlight their ADPs to Avoid for the 2025-26 season. These players are coming off the board too soon relative to their expected production, team situation, or just better players going later than them.
That doesn’t mean these players are “bad.” Some will still have strong seasons, but at their current cost, they pose more risk than reward. The goal is to help you maximize value by steering clear of inflated price tags and focusing on players who are better fits where they’re being drafted.
MORE ADPs to Avoid:
- Brock Seguin’s ADPs to Avoid
- Beebs Bondy’s ADPs to Avoid
- Dylan Berthiaume’s ADPs to Avoid
- Matt Larkin’s ADPs to Avoid
Jake Oettinger | Dallas Stars | G | ADP: 18.9
Five seasons into his young NHL career, Oettinger has become a reliable and consistent netminder, posting a solid 2.52 GAA and .912 SV% in 251 career games (149-66-27). It’s hard to knock on a goalie as talented as Oettinger, but for the sake of fantasy hockey, he does not live up to his current ADP. The 26-year-old netminder is currently the consensus third goalie being drafted off the board, just behind Connor Hellebuyck (12.3) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (15.5), yet Oettinger’s stats are nowhere near their sophistication.
Last season, Hellebuyck played 63 games (47-12-3), posting a 2.00 GAA, a .925 SV%, and eight shutouts. Vasilevskiy played 63 games (38-20-5), posting a 2.18 GAA, a .921 SV%, and six shutouts. Meanwhile, Oettinger played 58 games (36-18-4), posting a 2.59 GAA, a .909 SV%, and two shutouts; worlds apart. Comparing the three netminders, it’s easy to differentiate their statistics, and while Oettinger nearly played as many games as Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy, there is a sense in the Stars organization that Oettinger could play less this season in hopes of staying fresh for the playoffs. It’s common practice in many drafts to panic and select a goalie after the first couple are taken, given their limited commodity, but don’t be a victim of Oettinger’s name-value when there are plenty of other goalies in a similar class available later.
Macklin Celebrini | San Jose Sharks | G | ADP: 40.6
A runner-up for last season’s Calder Trophy, it’s hard not to be excited for Celebrini’s future. The 19-year-old battled an injury on a basement-dwelling Sharks team and still managed an impressive 63 points (25G / 38A) in 70 games. The sky’s the limit for the 2024 first-overall draft pick, and it’s rational to assume he will improve on his totals from last season. The Sharks are a young and exciting team that improved in the offseason, adding offensive reinforcements to complement Celebrini. However, at his current ADP, being drafted in the fourth round, there are far safer options available. For instance, Celebrini is being drafted ahead of players like Martin Necas (COL) and Aleksander Barkov (FLA), who are in better positions on better teams and have already established themselves with point-per-game seasons. Celebrini could prove me wrong and match the production of the previously mentioned players, but even so, this early in the draft, a safer bet with more certainty is typically encouraged.
Lane Hutson | Montreal Canadiens | D | ADP: 46.4
Hutson had a historic 2024-25 season, recording 66 points (6G / 60A) in 82 games, earning the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best rookie. He began the season on the second power-play unit, but his skill quickly became undeniable, outmaneuvering Mike Matheson as the quarterback on Montreal’s top power-play unit. The 21-year-old became more confident as the season progressed, scoring at a near point-per-game pace with 56 points (6G / 49A) in the final 61 games. With a young and captivating core at the helm, it’s an exciting time to be a supporter of the Canadiens. In fact, they became even more dynamic in the offseason by acquiring elite defenseman Noah Dobson. However, Dobson’s arrival raises questions about Hutson’s future production.
The 25-year-old Dobson signed a massive eight-year contract worth $76 million ($9.5M AAV) and is just a year removed from a tremendous 70-point campaign (10G / 60A) on a New York Islanders team that finished in the bottom-10 of the league offensively. Dobson can create offence from the blueline and will be even more equipped to do so on an offensively superior Montreal team. Hutson will undoubtedly continue to grow and likely have a successful 2025-26 season. Still, with another elite defenseman in the mix, the sixth-highest paid at that, it’s hard to imagine that Hutson gets the Montreal spotlight all to himself.
Thomas Harley & Miro Heiskanen | Dallas Stars | D | ADP: 71.1 & 87.2
Arguably, both top-10 defenseman, there’s little merit to debating the craftsmanship and ability of Harley and Heiskanen. Skill aside, two defensemen from the same team being drafted virtually right after one another is a major red flag. It’s not unreasonable to assume that the Stars, under new coach Glen Gulutzan, will finally opt for an uncontested power-play quarterback. Still, with Heiskanen and Harley both alternating that role in recent years, it’s impossible to predict who that may be. Until a clear-cut winner emerges between the two, Harley and Heiskanen will likely both project in the 50-point range. The two Dallas defenseman will no doubt be serviceable fantasy assets, but given their low ADPs, look for safer options that are destined for clear-cut roles on a top power-play unit.
Brent Burns | Colorado Avalanche | D | ADP: 166.0
Entering his age-40 season, Burns has quietly become the 12th most productive defenseman in NHL history with 910 points (261G / 629A). The six-time All-Star has topped 60 points and 300 shots in several seasons, elite marks for any defenseman. However, his drop-off is evident, with just 29 points (6G / 23A) and 174 shots in 82 games last season—a far cry from his Norris-contending days.
Burns signed with the Colorado Avalanche in the offseason as he continues his quest for an elusive Stanley Cup towards the end of his career. The veteran defenseman will be motivated, but that likely won’t be enough from a fantasy standpoint, as he falls behind Cale Makar and Devon Toews on the defensive depth chart, and likely will see minimal, if any, power-play time. Burns is being drafted towards the end of most drafts, so he isn’t wreaking severe damage, but even so, he should likely be avoided altogether.