Fantasy Hockey: The Perfect Draft from the No.1 Spot
Going into your Fantasy Hockey Draft with a plan is critical to making sure you leave with a Championship calibre team.
You can stare at projections all pre-season and print off my Top-300 rankings, but you need to know who to target in each round to avoid taking players in rounds you shouldn’t.
You may not have the time to dig through all of the ADPs (average draft position), so I’m here to help you plan whether you have the first overall pick or the 12th pick. Over the next week, I’ll release the “Perfect Draft” at each position, so you have targets in each round. Using Yahoo’s ADPs you can project who will be available at each draft spot.
I’m using the following format:
- 12 Teams
- 16 Round Snake Draft
- Lineup: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN
- Skater Scoring: Goals, Assists, Power-Play Points, Shots on Goal, Plus/Minus, Hits
- Goalie Scoring: Wins, GAA, SV%, Shutouts
Let’s start with the First Overall Pick. You’re on the clock.
(1) Round 1, Pick 1: Connor McDavid (EDM – C)
Landing the No.1 pick gives you a considerable head start immediately. No one is close to McDavid. Last year, he led the NHL in goals (64), assists (89), points (153), and power-play points (71). Despite doing so much damage on the power play, he was still a plus-22 and even chipped in 89 hits (also a career-high). McDavid has led the NHL in points for three straight seasons, posting 381 points in 218 games–59 points ahead of second (Leon Drasaitl). He’s the easiest pick you’ll ever have to make.
(24) Round 2, Pick 12: Tim Stutzle (OTT – C/LW)
I’m not usually in favour of drafting centres early, but thankfully, Stutzle has LW eligibility on Yahoo. Last year was Stutzle’s coming out party, as he popped 39 goals with 51 assists (90 points) in 78 games. It will be tough for him to maintain his 17.1 SH%, but he should still be comfortably around 30 goals with high-end assist upside. Stutzle is a minute-eater (21:16 ATOI last year) who will fill categories for you. In addition to the impressive point totals, Stutzle was top-30 in PPP (28) and had 100-plus hits for the second-straight season. The first couple of rounds are so clearly defined that finding value is challenging. I have Stutzle ranked at No.23, so this is right around where he should go.
Others to consider: Mika Zibanejad, Kyle Connor, Artemi Panarin
(25) Round 3, Pick 1: Elias Pettersson (VAN – C)
Again, I wouldn’t typically be targeting centres this early. However, Pettersson’s upside is difficult to ignore, and this year, more than most, I like some of the wingers you can get in the mid-to-late rounds, so it might be worth the gamble. If you take Pettersson here, you have three players who could reach 100-plus points to start your draft, making waiting on wingers, defensemen, and goalies more manageable.
Like McDavid and Stutzle, Pettersson is also coming off of a career-best season, scoring 39 goals with 63 assists (102 points). He was able to do so, thanks to a significant bump in playing time (18:36 to 20:33 ATOI), which led to a drastic increase in shots on goal (192 to 257). The new shot volume will allow him to be a consistent threat for 40-plus goals. He should also see an increase in power-play goals in 2024. He had more PP shot attempts than any year in his career but shot just 9.1 percent–his career average entering last season was 18.0 percent. He could realistically double his PPG output from 2023. While his goal-scoring doesn’t seem at risk for negative regression, his assist totals do. His 14.3 on-ice SH% and 86.2 5v5 IPP are both very high, and it concerns me that he may be unable to maintain 60-plus helpers. Still, a 45-goal, 55-assist season is as good of production as you’ll likely find at the 2-3 turn.
Others to consider: Mika Zibanejad, Kyle Connor, Artemi Panarin
(48) Round 4, Pick 12: Quinn Hughes (VAN – D)
After taking two centres in the first three rounds, it’s time to start filling some thinner positions. I have Hughes ranked as my No.5 defenseman and No.41 overall, so there’s solid value in selecting him at No.48, a few spots ahead of ADP. Hughes only offers a little goal-scoring upside, tying for 52nd among defensemen with just 18 goals in the last three seasons combined. However, what he lacks in goals, he more than makes up for in assists. Hughes leads all defensemen with 167 over the last three years and is also third in PPP (84). The soon-to-be 24-year-old has been very reliable throughout his career, appearing in 278 of a possible 289 games (96.2%) since his rookie season. Adding Hughes also creates a nice Vancouver stack with Pettersson. Pettersson played 53.0 percent of his 5v5 and power play ice-time with Hughes on the ice last season.
Others to consider: Aleksander Barkov, Filip Gustavsson, Miro Heiskanen, Victor Hedman, Matt Boldy
(49) Round 5, Pick 1: Alex DeBrincat (DET – LW/RW)
At first glance, this is a lot earlier than DeBrincat’s 63.7 ADP, but I have him ranked No.33, and there’s no chance he’d be available when you’re back on the clock at Pick No.72. DeBrincat is coming off of a relatively disappointing season, scoring just 27 goals with 39 assists (66 points) in 82 games. This summer, he was traded to the Detroit Red Wings, where he figures to line up with Dylan Larkin on the top line. The Michigan native is a prolific goal-scorer who needs his 10.3 SH% from 2023 to bounce back closer to the 15.5 percent he shot from 2018 to 2022. No disrespect to Shane Pinto, but the Josh Norris injury last season left DeBrincat without a high-end centre to play with; he’ll get that with Larkin this season. It’s easy to project 40-plus goals with 35-plus assists for DeBrincat, who will also chip in around 100 hits.
Others to consider: Aleksander Barkov, Filip Gustavsson, Matt Boldy, Clayton Keller
(72) Round 6, Pick 12: Andrei Svechnikov (LW/RW)
Svechnikov’s drastic dip in ADP is a bit puzzling. Last season, he was being drafted in the early fourth round; this year he’s going in the middle of the seventh. Sure, he underwent season-ending knee surgery last March, but he’s participating in training camp and could be ready for opening night. Even if he misses the first few games, the upside is worth the last pick in the sixth round. Before last season, he appeared in 283 of 288 games (98.3%) in his first four seasons, so durability shouldn’t be a concern. Prior to getting hurt last season, he was on pace for 30 goals, 41 assists (71 points), 263 SOG, and 179 hits. At age 23, this is the time you can expect a breakout season from Svechnikov, who has already established a very safe 30-goal, 40-assist, 250-shot, 180-hit floor. He’s a category stuffer, and one of the reasons taking centres early is OK if you have to.
Others to consider: Kevin Fiala, John Carlson, Brent Burns, Ilya Samsonov
(73) Round 7, Pick 1: Frederik Andersen (CAR – G)
Taking skaters with your first six picks means you’ll have to cobble together your goalies, and the seventh round is an excellent place to start. Andersen wasn’t great last year, posting a .903 SV%, but the Hurricanes were so good that it led to a 21-11-1 record and 2.48 GAA, which was tied for ninth in the NHL. Durability and quality competition in Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov are concerns, but they are more than factored in at his ADP. At 34 years old, his days of starting 60 games are likely over, but as long as he’s healthy, he should see the lion’s share of starts for a team the sportsbooks think are the best in the NHL–highest implied season point total (109.5). Last season, they were the best defensive team in hockey, ranking first in All Situations xGA/60, Scoring Changes Against/60 and seven in High-Danger Chances Against/60. He’ll be well-insulated when Andersen is in the crease and should win 65 percent of his starts while posting some of the best splits at the position. He isn’t a workhorse, but he’s a low-end No.1 fantasy option and the perfect target for teams who load up on scorers like we have so far.
Others to consider: Kevin Fiala, John Carlson, Brent Burns, Ilya Samsonov
(96) Round 8, Pick 12: Evander Kane (EDM – LW)
You’ll have a decision to make at this spot: add Evander Kane or try and continue to strengthen your goaltending with Darcy Kuemper. I’m actually a fan of some of the goalies you can get a little later, and the chance to pair Kane with McDavid is hard to pass on. Last season was disappointing for Kane, but a freak wrist injury hampered it. Kane had 13 points (5G / 8A) through his first 14 games of the season before his wrist was severely cut by a skate in mid-November.
Entering 2024, Kane is expected to skate on a line with McDavid and Connor Brown. While he won’t see much time on the top power-play unit, he’ll still see time with McDavid and Co. with the extra man. McDavid was tied for fourth in the NHL in 5v5 points, so there will be plenty of offence for Kane to be involved in. Where Kane brings added value is hits; he’s compiled 259 hits in 84 games in an Oilers uniform. Kane has 30-goal, 30-assist, 280 shots and 250 hits potential if healthy. If you’re not in a banger league, check out the names below in this spot.
Others to consider: Sam Reinhart, Darcy Kuemper, Jonathan Marchessault
(97) Round 9, Pick 1: Kris Letang (PIT – D)
The offseason addition of Erik Karlsson seems to have the fantasy community frightened to draft Letang this season. Not me. Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has already said that he plans to use Karlsson and Letang on the same power-play, and Letang will continue to be their most heavily utilized defenseman at 5v5. Health has been the biggest bugaboo for Letang in recent years, but he still ranks seventh among defensemen in points (154), tied for eighth in PPP (58), ninth in SOG (507), tied for 19th in goals (29), and 20th in hits (425) over that span. He’s as good of a category filler as you will find on the blueline and is coming at a massive draft day discount–his ADP was 59.5 last year, it’s 124.3 this year.
Others to consider: Sam Reinhart, Darcy Kuemper, Jonathan Marchessault, Noah Dobson
(120) Round 10, Pick 12: Shea Theodore (VGK – D)
Theodore has been a personal favourite of mine for a few years, but I’m still waiting for that true breakout. He’s unquestionably one of the best goal-scorers at the position, potting 55 over the last five years, which is top-10 among defensemen. His assist totals have been solid, picking up at least 30 in four straight seasons and averaging 44 per 82 games. He’s battling Alex Pietrangelo for time on the top power-play unit, but we saw him get the edge when it mattered most during the Golden Knights’ run to the Stanley Cup in the spring. His usage is cemented, and his floor is extremely stable. If he produces at his floor, he’s a great option as your No.3 fantasy defenseman and 10th-round pick. However, his ceiling is elite. Theodore has the potential to score 15 goals with 50 assists, making him a possible league-winning selection.
Others to consider: Filip Forsberg, Cole Caufield, Mark Scheifele, Jonathan Huberdeau
(121) Round 11, Pick 1: Jacob Markstrom (CGY – G)
Markstrom and the Calgary Flames, as a whole, were incredibly disappointing last season. Markstrom went 23-21-12 with a 2.92 GAA and .892 SV% after being selected in the third round of fantasy drafts (ADP: 30.2). As a result, he’s plummeting down draft boards this fall and is a bounce-back candidate. Dustin Wolf is coming, but if he becomes a full-time NHLer this season, he won’t supplant Markstrom as the Flames’ No.1 option. The veteran should still be a workhorse this season on a team that should play more to their potential. Despite their struggles, Calgary was still one of the better defensive teams in the NHL, so Markstrom should have plenty of support to try and return to his 2022 form. As an 11th-round pick and your No.2 goalie, this is a low-risk/high-reward selection.
Others to consider: Filip Forsberg, Cole Caufield, Mark Scheifele, Jonathan Huberdeau
(144) Round 12, Pick 12: Patrik Laine (CBJ – LW/RW)
The Matthews or Laine debate feels like it was eons ago, and while Laine hasn’t lived up to the hype from when he was a teenager, he may be one of the biggest fantasy steals of the 2024 season. Injuries are the main issue with the 25-year-old. He’s missed 32.3 percent of the games of the last two years. But honestly, who cares? It’s baked into his 13th-round ADP, and he’s a risk-free pick as a bench winger.
Last season, Laine had 22 goals and 30 assists in 55 games. In two full seasons with the Blue Jackets, he has 48 goals and 60 assists (108 points) in 111 games. If you do the math, that’s a 36-goal, 44-assist pace. He’s an absolute steal at this point in the draft.
Others to consider: Adin Hill, Troy Terry
(145) Round 13, Pick 1: Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – LW)
Ehlers is the same case as Laine. He’s been on the verge of breaking out for a few years, but injuries have held him back. Ehlers has missed 34.8 percent of the games the last two seasons but has averaged 31 goals and 41 assists (72 points) per 82 games. Ehlers is also coming off a season where he shot just 9.1 percent; he had averaged 12.5 percent since 2017. He also inexplicably played just 15:39 TOI/gm after playing 18:04 ATOI in 2022. Ehlers has been in and out of the start of training camp with neck spams, so it hasn’t been a great start. However, he’s played full seasons three times in his career, so he is capable. If he has a clean bill of health, Ehlers floor feels like 30 goals and 40 assists. He has more upside this late in the draft than anyone else and is worth taking a flier on, even with lingering injury concerns.
Others to consider: Adin Hill, Troy Terry
(168) Round 14, Pick 12: John Klingberg (TOR – D)
Klingberg is only being drafted in 27 percent of leagues, so you should have no issues getting him at the end of the 14th round. In the early portions of training camp, Klingberg has been running with the Maple Leafs’ top power-play unit, leaving Morgan Rielly to handle the second unit. In the last two seasons, the Maple Leafs’ power play has ranked first (2022) and second (2023), so this will be a massive opportunity for Klingberg. The 31-year-old put up prolific offensive totals early in his career but has been middling since 2020. A spot on one of the league’s best 5v5 offences and power-play make him an excellent late-round D target to round out your blueline. In the last three seasons, he’s averaged ten goals and 39 assists per 82 games, so there’s still a solid foundation for him to build on in Toronto.
Others to consider: Owen Tippett, Lucas Raymond, Robert Thomas, Pavel Zacha
(169) Round 15, Pick 1: Cam Talbot (LAK – G)
Talbot was underwhelming in Ottawa last season, posting a 2.93 GAA and .898 SV% in 36 appearances. As a result, he had to take a one-year deal this offseason but landed in an ideal situation. Talbot will be battling with Pheonix Copley and David Rittich for starts in the Kings’ crease, a job that he should be able to win. Copley had a nice run with the Kings last season, but there’s a reason they acquired Joonas Korpisalo at the deadline. The Kings were among the best defensive teams in the NHL last year, ranking second in 5v5 xGA/60 and seventh in PK xGA/60. Korpisalo went from a 3.17 GAA and .911 SV% in Columbus’ system to a 2.13 GAA and .921 SV% with Los Angles. That’s the glow-up I’m expecting from Talbot this season. In his two seasons with the Wild, Talbot was tied for 17th with a .913 SV%. Those Wild teams were among the best defensive teams in the NHL, and Talbot stood tall. He’s one of my favourite late-round goalie targets as a No.3 Fantasy option.
Others to consider: Owen Tippett, Lucas Raymond, Robert Thomas, Pavel Zacha
(192) Round 16, Pick 12: Barrett Hayton (ARI – C)
Hayton is going undrafted right now, and he’s a reason why you can wait to draft centre depth. Last season, he had just 14 points (5G / 9A) in his first 47 games while averaging just 16:03 TOI/gm. After that, he was locked on a line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz and took off in the second half of the season. Hayton finished with 29 points (14G / 15A) in his final 35 games–a 33-goal, 35-assist per 82-game pace. He broke into the NHL young, so he’s still just 23 years old and should be able to build on that late-season chemistry and success with Keller and Schmaltz. That line has been together throughout training camp, so look for Hayton to hit the ground running as your last-round pick or post-draft free-agent pickup.
Others to consider: Gabe Vilardi, Sean Couturier, Filip Chytil, Tommy Novak
The Team:
