Fantasy Hockey: The Perfect Draft from the No.1 Spot

Going into your Fantasy Hockey Draft with a plan is critical to making sure you leave with a Championship calibre team.

You can stare at projections all pre-season and print off my Top-300 rankings, but you need to know who to target in each round to make sure you’re maximizing value and not reaching on players.

You may not have the time to dig through all of the ADPs (average draft position), so I’m here to help you plan whether you have the first overall pick or the 12th pick. Over the next week, I’ll release the “Perfect Draft” at each position, so you have targets in each round. Using Yahoo’s ADPs you can project who will be available at each draft spot.

I’m using the following format:

12 Teams
16 Round Snake Draft
Lineup: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN
Skater Scoring: Goals, Assists, Power-Play Points, Shots on Goal, Plus/Minus, Hits
Goalie Scoring: Wins, GAA, SV%, Shutouts

Let’s start with the First Overall Pick. You’re on the clock.

(1) Round 1, Pick 1: Connor McDavid (EDM – C) – ADP: 1.1

This year maybe more than ever, there’s a bit of a debate for who should go No.1 overall. Especially in leagues with more emphasis on goals, but in Yahoo! Standard Scoring, McDavid is still the pick for me.

McDavid may never re-discover the elite shot volume from 2023 that led to him scoring a career-high 64 goals, but even at the 263 shots he had last year, he’s a 40-goal scorer. Combine that with the outrageous assist totals he’s tallied and you can lock him in for 130-plus points. You can’t guarantee that production for anyone else. Don’t get cute, McDavid is the pick at 1.1.

(24) Round 2, Pick 12: Connor Hellebuyck (WPG – G) – ADP: 24.5

Hellebuyck is the second goalie off the board based on ADP but he’s my No.1 ranked netminder. I would take him off the board in the middle of the second round, so getting him at the 2-3 turn to pair with McDavid gives you two of the top options at their positions to start your draft.

Hellebuyck is an absolute workhorse that you can count on starting 60 games. He’s led the NHL in games played in three of the last five years and paces the league with 291 starts during that timeframe–Andrei Vasilevskiy and Juuse Saros are second and third with 269 and 263. His workload is unmatched and he’s been remarkably consistent throughout the years. You should be able to count on him for 30-plus wins and a SV% above .915.

(25) Round 3, Pick 1: Jason Robertson (DAL – LW) – ADP: 27.8

Robertson is going to miss the start of training camp due to foot surgery in July but there shouldn’t be much concern about his availability for the start of the season. In fact, Robertson missed training camp two years ago and had a career-best 109 points (46G / 63A). If you don’t want to risk taking Robertson, both Mitch Marner (TOR) and Jake Guentzel (TBL) would be fine picks at this spot as well.

Robertson may not be able to repeat the 100-plus point season from 2023, especially after his shot volume dropped by a full shot last year, but he’s still a player who should be a lock for 35 goals and 50-plus assists. And should the shot volume bounce back, you’d have one of the biggest draft-day steals. Remember, he was going in the late first round last year.

(48) Round 4, Pick 12: Connor Bedard (CHI – C) – ADP: 48.4

Bedard’s ADP doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Last year, he was drafted at 37.3 (early fourth round) despite never playing in an NHL game and having one of the worst surrounding casts imaginable. He showed everything you wanted to see from a fourth-round pick, scoring at a 26-goal, 49-assist (75 points) and 248 shots per 82-game pace. Now he’s got a much improved surrounding cast, and he’s dropped to 48.4 ADP. Still only 19 years old, Bedard is a breakout candidate who could end up being one of the biggest draft-day steals in the late-fourth/early-fifth round.

(49) Round 5, Pick 1: Tage Thompson (BUF – C/RW) – ADP: 49.5

Like Robertson and Bedard, Thompson’s ADP is way down from where it was last year. Thompson was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments in the first half of the season after being selected at 12.6 ADP. He had just 35 points (18G / 17A) in his first 53 games but looked a lot more like the player from 2023 in the second half. Thompson finished the season with 21 points (11G / 10A) in his final 18 games, a 50-goal, 46-assist per 82-game pace. His on-ice SH% (10.1) should bounce back (12.2% in ’22 and 13.3% in ’23) and his assist production should follow. Thompson, like Bedard, has the potential to drastically outproduce his ADP.

(72) Round 6, Pick 12: Cole Caufield (MTL – LW/RW) – ADP: 82.3

After back-to-back injury-plagued seasons to begin his NHL career, Caufield appeared in all 82 games in 2023-24. He ended up finishing the season with 28 goals and 37 assists (65 points) and was seventh in the NHL in shots on goal (314). With that elite shot volume, Caufield has 40-goal, 40-assist upside. He was already on-pace for 33 goals and 41 assists in the second half of last season.

(73) Round 7, Pick 1: Matt Boldy (MIN – LW/RW) – ADP: 74.6

It might be difficult to add your fourth winger before drafting your first defenseman, but there are quality blueline options in the eighth round and beyond, and it’s tough to pass on Boldy’s upside in the seventh round.

Just two and a half years into his NHL career, Boldy already has a 30-goal (2023) and 40-assist (2024) season under his belt. The 23-year-old is locked into a prominent top-6 role and PP1 in Minnesota and should have no issues getting to 30 goals, 35 assists, 25 PPP and 250 SOG this year. Consider that his floor and welcome anything additional. You may not remember, but he finished the season with 36 points (13G / 23A) in his final 32 games–a 33-goal, 59-assist, 92-point pace.

(96) Round 8, Pick 12: John Carlson (WSH – D) – ADP: 112.4

I have Carlson ranked as a low-end No.1/high-end No.2 fantasy blue liner, so you should be fine with him as your No.1 defenseman, especially after how much forward talent we’ve compiled in the first seven rounds. The Capitals surprised a lot of people last year and look even deeper this year after a busy offseason. The veteran blueliner quietly went about his business last season and finished with 52 points (10G / 42A) in 82 games. Aside from 2023, Carlson has been extremely durable in recent years and has been a lock for double-digit goals on the back end–he’s averaged 15 goals per 82 games over the last seven seasons. Carlson has additional competition for power-play time this year after the acquisition of Jakob Chychrun, but Chychrun has never really been an elite PP producer, so Carlson’s role should be mostly safe throughout the season. He won’t give you the elite point totals that you’ll get in the early rounds, but you also don’t have to pass on game-breaking forward talent to get him either.

(97) Round 9, Pick 1: Zach Werenski (CBJ – D) – ADP: 115.5

Carlson and Werenski is a good way to beef up your blueline in the middle rounds, especially when you go all-in on forwards and goalies in the early rounds. Werenski is a high-end No.2 fantasy option and another consistent double-digit goal threat. He also put together a career-best 57-point season last year in the middle of a disappointing season for the Blue Jackets. When healthy, Werenski has the ability to be a top-10 fantasy defenseman but durability is a huge concern. He last played a full 82-game season in 2019 and has missed 33.1 percent of the games in the five years since.

(120) Round 10, Pick 12: Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – LW) – ADP: 137.1

It seems like every year I preach grabbing Ehlers in the middle rounds in the hopes that he will finally be given more playing time and turn into a league-winning pick. It hasn’t materialized yet, he’s got a career-high of 29 goals (2018) and 64 points (2017), but 2024-25 seems like the most promising yet. Firstly, the Jets have a brand new head coach (Scott Arniel), so he has a fresh start to earn the additional playing time. Secondly, Ehlers is a pending UFA at the end of the season, and he wouldn’t be the first player to have a massive season in a contract year.

(121) Round 11, Pick 1: Connor Ingram (UTA – G) – ADP: 135.1

Going so hard on forwards in the early rounds will put you in a bind at other positions. At goalie, grabbing Hellenbuyck early affords you the luxury of being a little patient with your No.2.

Ingram is a low-end No.2/high-end No.3 goalie option entering the season. He did a nice job on a bad defensive team last year, posting 23 wins, six shutouts and a .907 SV%. This offseason, the new Utah Hockey Club went out and tried to beef up their blueline, adding Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino and Ian Cole. That trio should help improve the defensive quality in front of Ingram, making him a low-risk/high-reward draft pick on draft day.

(144) Round 12, Pick 12: JJ Peterka (BUF – RW) – ADP: 164.5

Peterka may be my absolute favourite value pick this fall. Early in his career, he’s showcased he’s got high-end skill and really good shot volume. In 2024-25, he’s going to have his best opportunity to date. With Jeff Skinner getting bought out in the summer, Peterka is expected to skate on the top line with Thompson and Alex Tuch. That trio spent 156:34 together at 5v5 last year and the results were impressive. They scored 5.0 GF/60 while averaging 31.4 ScoringChancesFor/60. With the additional playing time he should get with his new role, Peterka should have no problem getting to 250 shots and 30 goals this season and his assist totals should perk up playing with Thompson and Tuch.

(145) Round 13, Pick 1: Tristan Jarry (PIT – G) – ADP: 144.8

Jarry was a bit of a disappointing No.2 fantasy netminder last year, winning just 19 games with a 2.91 GAA and .903 SV% in 48 starts. It wasn’t all bad though, he posted six shutouts and a 60.4 QualityStart%, which was 18th-best in the league. But the bad starts were really bad. He had 14 games with at least four goals against. Alex Nedeljkovic is a solid backup option, so Jarry could find himself in close to a 50-50 split this year, but the Penguins are still an above average team and Jarry has a chance to play like a No.2 fantasy netminder at a No.3 price.

(168) Round 14, Pick 12: Sean Durzi (UTA – D) – ADP: 170.8

Durzi has put together back-to-back solid seasons but continues to get overlooked in drafts. Utah should have an above-average offence this year after ranking 16th in Goals last year and Durzi could be their PP1 quarterback. Based on ADP, it appears the public is expecting Sergachev (75.6) to take that role, but he was unable to hold off Victor Hedman for that spot in Tampa Bay. Durzi is not Hedman, but he has been a very strong power-play contributor his entire career. Even if it ends up being Sergachev for Game 1, this is a situation that could be fluid throughout the season and Durzi will still be a big minute-eater at 5v5. Durzi had six goals and 19 assists at even-strength last season, so he doesn’t need to be PP1 all year to serve as your No.3 fantasy defenseman.

The one thing that this team is lacking is hits, so if you elect to go with a defenseman who contributes more in that category, that wouldn’t be a bad decision in this spot either.

(169) Round 15, Pick 1: Lane Hutson (MTL – D) – ADP: 174.2

Hutson is one player I’m keeping an eye on during training camp. He isn’t guaranteed a roster spot in Montreal, but he’s too good to keep off the roster in my opinion. He’s a dynamic offensive-defenseman who could end up being Montreal’s PP1 quarterback at some point this season. Mike Matheson already plays massive minutes at 5v5 and on the penalty kill, so Hutson could give him a much-needed breather on the power play. In the 15th round, Hutson is worth taking a shot on because the upside is massive. Hutson put up very similar numbers in his final year of college as Luke Hughes did in his final year, and Hughes went on to post 48 points (9G / 38A) in 82 games in his rookie year. That kind of production isn’t out of the range of outcomes for Hutson if he earns a spot on Day 1.

(192) Round 16, Pick 12: Pavel Zacha (BOS – C) – ADP: Undrafted

With the last pick in the draft, you can take any sleeper that you want. We’ll outline all kinds of options throughout the preseason but right now, one of my favourites is Zacha. He posted nearly identical totals in each of his first two seasons in Boston, averaging 21 goals and 37 assists (58 points). He’s expected to move back to the wing and play with Elias Lindholm and David Pastrnak this season, a spot that gives him plenty of offensive upside. But some other names that I would look at in this spot are: Adam Fantilli, Matty Beniers, Leo Carlsson, Kirill Marchenko, Taylor Hall, Mason McTavish, Tyson Foerster, Tommy Novak, Tyler Bertuzzi and more will unveil themselves as the preseason continues.