Fantasy Hockey: Will strong finishes to 2023 carry over to 2024?

The NHL season is a long, gruelling 82-game schedule that often leads to Fantasy Hockey managers losing sight of late-season standouts as their fantasy teams slide out of contention. We are going to look at some of the top performers from January 15th, 2023 (41 GP mark for almost all teams) onward who stood out in the final months of the season and should continue their success heading into 2023-24:

Tommy Novak (C) – Nashville Predators

13G/22A/35Pts in 38 GP – +4 plus/minus, 10 PPP, 68 SOG

Second-half injuries to players like Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene and the Mikael Granlund trade to Pittsburgh increased Novak’s role, as he found himself operating the Predators’ top line and top power-play to close out the 2022-23 season. With 13 goals and 35 points in the final 38 games, he was 49th in the NHL in scoring during that period, only a point off of superstars Tage Thompson (36 Pts), John Tavares (36), Steven Stamkos (36), and Jake Guentzel (36). Novak was one of the most efficient players in the NHL’s second half as he was the only player in the second-half scoring leaders’ top 50 who averaged less than 16:00 ATOI as the 26-year-old clocked in an average of 15:40 TOI in his final 41 games while also shooting 20 percent on 65 SOG. This offseason, the Predators traded Johansen and signed Ryan O’Reilly, so expect Novak to continue to work as the Predators No.2 centre and a fixture on the top power-play unit. The 20 SH% is cause for concern, but more ice time will help offset any potential regression in that area. Following the Granlund trade last season, Novak averaged 17:13 TOI/gm in the season’s final two months. Novak is currently going undrafted, so you will only have to spend a last-round pick to try and capitalize on his upside in 2024.

Tim Stutzle (LW) – Ottawa Senators

21G/30A/51 Pts in 40 GP – +7 plus/minus, 30 PIMs, 129 SOG

Stutzle had a scorching second half in 2021-22 and followed it up by etching his name in as one of the league’s strongest latter-half performers in 2022-23 with an impressive 21 goals, 51 points, 129 SOG, 30 PIMs, and a +7 plus/minus in his final 40 games. The 51 points ranked him seventh in NHL scoring during the last 41 games and boosted him close to the top-30 fantasy ADP for this season. The 21-year-old seems only to be getting started as he’s increased his point totals by 20-plus points in each of his first three seasons while increasing his shot totals by 50-plus SOG in each as well. Stutzle’s hot second half led to him becoming only the sixth Ottawa Senator in history to reach 90 points in a season. With a solid core developing around him in Ottawa with the likes of Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Jakob Chychrun, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, and veteran stars Claude Giroux, and Vladimir Tarasenko, the Senators’ offense could be a force to be reconned with in 2023-24, and Stutzle is sure to be a driving force.

Clayton Keller (RW) – Arizona Coyotes

23G/26A/49 Pts in 40 GP – +13 plus/minus, 131 SOG

Arizona has been a fantasy dead zone for the most part in recent years, but their top line (Keller-Hayton-Schmaltz) was dynamite in 2022-23. The line took a massive step forward with the addition of Hayton around mid-season, which led to Keller finishing his final 40 games played with 23 goals, 49 points, 131 SOG, and a surprising +13 plus/minus to place him 13th among all skaters in second-half scoring. This elite production propelled many fantasy teams into the playoffs and added an unexpected spark from one of the league’s more underrated stars. The Keller, Hayton, and Schmaltz train should be rolling in full force for the 2023-24 season and, if you are smart enough to jump on board, could once again lead to top-20 production without using too early of a draft pick. With Keller only 25 and Arizona pushing out a roster not attempting to fall for Bedard, he could be in for his first 90+ point season out in the desert.

Pavel Zacha (C)– Boston Bruins

16G/16A/32 Pts in 40 GP – +16 plus/minus, 27 Even-strength points

Zacha is in for a massive upgrade to his role and ice time in 2023-24, with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring from the NHL and leaving a glaring hole up the middle of Boston’s lineup. The towering 6’4 center was already embracing a much more significant role as he closed out the 2022-23 season with 16 goals and 32 points in his final 40 games (64th best in NHL). Across an 82-game season, that type of production would give Zacha a 32G/32A season, which is more than worthy of a fantasy roster position in almost all formats. Add in the fact that Boston has very few center candidates who can threaten his first unit role going into 2023-24 and the fact that he could be lining up with superstars David Pastrnak (113 Pts in 82 GP) and Brad Marchand (67 Pts in 73 GP) and Zacha should be in line to surpass his career-high 57 points from last season while almost surely topping his 16:22 ATOI from his final 40 games. He’s currently being drafted in the 14th round, so there’s minimal risk in seeing how he adapts to his new role early in the season.

Goaltenders

Alexandar Georgiev (G) – Colorado Avalanche

24-5-3 record, .922 SV% and 2.33 GAA since January 15th (half-way point).

Georgiev tied Linus Ullmark for the NHL-lead in Wins (40) last season, but 60 percent of those wins came in the second half. His 24 wins over his final 31 starts was six more than the next best goalie during that span–Jake Oettinger, 18 wins. Considering Georgiev was also fourth in the NHL in SV% (.922) and fifth in GAA (2.33), he was far and away the most helpful fantasy goaltender when the end of season and playoffs came around. Georgiev’s slower start can be attributed to his new surroundings, first-time starting gig, and the Avalanche’s early season injury bug. If the 27-year-old can duplicate his second half from last season across a full 82-game stretch, he would undoubtedly be in the conversation as the first goalie off the board in 2024-25. Georgiev makes an incredibly safe draft-day pick as Colorado should be one of the league’s top teams yet again and is sure to outscore most opponents with their high-powered offence that brought them a Stanley Cup in 2022-23. If you don’t want to waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on a goalie, Georgiev is a stead G1 in the third round as the fifth goalie off the board.

Rookies

Mattias Maccelli (LW) – Arizona Coyotes

8G/19A/27 Pts in 34 GP – +2 plus/minus, 5 PPP, 38 SOG

Matty Beniers may have taken the Calder Trophy honours in 2022-23, but there was no hotter rookie in the NHL’s second half than Arizona’s Mattias Maccelli. Finishing his latter half with eight goals, 19 assists, and 38 SOG through his final 34 games, he finished four points higher than Dallas rookie Wyatt Johnston in points during the same span to lead all first-year skaters. Maccelli’s issue is his pass-first mentality and lack of shot volume, but still, he was able to supplement his low shot totals by posting a 21.1 SH% during his successful second half. Maccelli won’t fill up the goals category for you, but the additions of Logan Cooley and Jason Zucker have given him two strong running mates for 2023-24. He should be able to rack up assists in bunches and won’t cost you more than a last-round pick or post-draft waiver wire pickup.