Five crucial stats to define the 2025 Stanley Cup Final
The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers provided hockey fans with a classic Stanley Cup Final in 2024, a roller coaster matchup that saw Florida pull ahead 3-0, only for Edmonton to come back and nearly become the fifth team to complete the reverse sweep, and the second to do so in the final round. Instead, the Panthers put on a clinical defensive performance in Game 7 to finally secure their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
So how about a rematch? The Oilers and Panthers worked hard to get back here again in 2025, and we might even be looking at deeper, finer-tuned versions of each team in this year’s affair. Florida is looking to turn an elite team into a dynasty, while Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and company are trying to get the first Cup of this current core.
So with the matchup set in stone, let’s dive into five key stats going into this series. I’ll look back to some numbers from last year’s matchup that dictated the result there and could again here, while also diving into some key factors of this year’s versions of the Oilers and Panthers to see what serves as the advantage for either team.
29 players returning from last season’s series
The best part about a rematch in the playoffs is that this time around, there’s no need for formalities. Usually it takes a game or two for both teams to get acclimated with each other, and then it starts to get feistier. But that won’t be needed, as Edmonton and Florida are well-acquainted, and the fun can begin right away, especially with how motivated both sides will be.
On top of that, there’s a relatively low turnover rate from 2024 to 2025, as 31 players who skated at any point in last year’s series are also on their respective team’s roster this year: 16 on the Oilers and 13 on the Panthers. It’s not just the big guns who are locked into the core of the team either, there are a lot of depth players who will also be familiar with each other.
Players on the roster in 2024 & 2025
| Edmonton | Florida | ||||
| Forwards | Defensemen | Goaltenders | Forwards | Defensemen | Goaltenders |
| Connor Brown | Evan Bouchard | Calvin Pickard*** | Aleksander Barkov | Aaron Ekblad | Sergei Bobrovsky |
| Leon Draisaitl | Mattias Ekholm | Stuart Skinner | Sam Bennett | Gustav Forsling | |
| Adam Henrique | Brett Kulak | Anton Lundell | Dmitry Kulikov | ||
| Zach Hyman* | Darnell Nurse | Eetu Luostarinen | Niko Mikkola | ||
| Mattias Janmark | Sam Reinhart | ||||
| Evander Kane | Evan Rodrigues | ||||
| Connor McDavid | Matthew Tkachuk | ||||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Carter Verhaeghe | ||||
| Corey Perry | |||||
| Derek Ryan** |
*out for 2025 series
**hasn’t played in 2025 playoffs
***only served as backup in 2024 series
It’s safe to say that with all the familiar faces, we’ll be in for a bloodbath. On top of that, quite a few of the new faces are also well known for getting involved in shenanigans, which means it won’t take long for them to get accustomed to this rivalry. Brad Marchand, Trent Frederic, A.J. Greer – all will only add fuel to the fire.
One goal against with Barkov and Reinhart on the ice against McDavid and Draisaitl
The key to winning any series against the Oilers is finding a way to keep their two-headed monster of McDavid and Draisaitl quiet. The two are menaces in the playoffs, sitting a respective third and fifth all-time in playoff points per game, and can singlehandedly win Edmonton games if needed. It’s very rare that they play well and lose a game, so if you can shut them down (or at least contain them), you have a much better chance for success.
And in 2024, that’s exactly what the Panthers did. They should probably consider themselves lucky that they have the defensive equivalents of McDavid and Draisaitl in Barkov and Reinhart, and Florida’s duo did their job shutting down Edmonton’s in the series, especially on home ice when they had the ability to dictate the matchups. It wasn’t pretty (Barkov and Reinhart had a 38.29% 5v5 expected goal share against McDavid and a 49.38% 5v5 xG% against Draisaitl), but they got the job done, as the Oilers never scored when McDavid was playing against them, and only once when Draisaitl was on the ice. By comparison, McDavid was on the ice for seven Oilers goals away from them, and Draisaitl was on for four.
The Panthers will need that level of performance again from Barkov and Reinhart this year, and they should be more than capable of doing so considering their defensive play this year has made them both Selke finalists and Barkov a winner. Even if McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t as nuclear as they were last year, Florida will be throwing everything and the kitchen sink at these two to keep them quiet, and Barkov and Reinhart will certainly be a big part of that plan.
That said, Draisaitl heads into this series a lot less injured than he was in 2024, so that will complicate things for the Panthers. Last year, Draisaitl’s injury resulted in Edmonton having to play him with McDavid to generate offense, and that made the Oilers a lot easier to shut down. They’ll be on separate lines this time around, giving Florida a much tougher challenge, although the Panthers have also proven to be comfortable with putting their second and third lines out against top competition during this run.
Only three goals from Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins in the 2024 Final
One of the biggest costing factors for the Oilers in the 2024 Final was the fact that their two other core forwards beyond McDavid and Draisaitl didn’t generate nearly enough. Nugent-Hopkins had just the one goal in the 8-1 blowout win in Game 4, while Hyman scored a goal in Games 5 and 6. It made life a lot easier for the Panthers defenders to just focus on McDavid and Draisaitl when their secondary scoring options also weren’t contributing much.
However, Nugent-Hopkins is coming into the Final red hot with his performance against the Dallas Stars. While he was held off the board in Game 5, he was electric in the first four games of the series with two goals and nine points in just four games. If he can continue that level of play against the Panthers, he will be one more scoring threat for Florida to have to worry about.
Nugent-Hopkins’ performance will be all the more important with Hyman most likely out for the entire series, but it should also be remembered that the Oilers took this series to seven games last year without their offense. Of course, there are other ways Hyman brings value to the lineup, and it will certainly be missed, but from an offensive standpoint, the Oilers only need three more goals from Nugent-Hopkins or their depth to get to where they were last year, and a few more if they want to win.
Nugent-Hopkins’ performance last series gives some hope that he could make up the difference. When you think about it like that, winning without Hyman doesn’t seem so daunting if his offense can be replaced in the aggregate.
Panthers’ depth has outscored the Oilers’ depth 34-30
With all the focus on the top ends of the Oilers and Panthers’ lineups, how both teams’ depth performs in the series may be what shifts the Final one way or the other. Both teams have been praised for their depth so far in the playoffs, as it’s played a big role in them looking so overpowering against their opponents, but which team has the better depth?
Well, in terms of pure production, the edge goes to Florida right now, as their bottom two lines and their defensemen have combined for 32 goals, while the Oilers are right there with 30. That advantage mostly comes from the Panthers’ blueline, as their defense has scored 15 goals compared to the Oilers’ 11.
What makes their offensive depth on the blueline even more impressive is that they don’t have an Evan Bouchard (who has six), instead getting it from a group effort. Aaron Ekblad, Niko Mikkola, Seth Jones and Nate Schmidt all have three goals apiece, while Gustav Forsling, Dmitry Kulikov and Uvis Balinskis all have one. In comparison, the Oilers have two from Darnell Nurse, and one from Brett Kulak, Jake Walman and John Klingberg beyond what Bouchard has provided.
Up front, it’s even closer, with the Oilers and Panthers getting 19 goals from their bottom six. It may come as a surprise that the Panthers aren’t favored here too considering how dominant the line of Lundell, Marchand and Luostarinen have been, but they actually have 13 of the 19 goals. Otherwise, Florida has only gotten two goals from A.J. Greer, Jonah Gadjovich and Jesper Boqvist.
The Oilers have had more spread out depth scoring, including five goals from Brown, four from Henrique, three from Janmark, and then one from Jeff Skinner, Trent Frederic, Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin. That also doesn’t include the seven they’ve gotten from Perry and the five they’ve gotten from Kane, who from a core perspective would be considered as depth options, but will be in the top six in this series.
Regardless, there are going to be games in this series where the top guns cancel each other out, and the difference will come down to which teams’ depth players step up. They have on both sides so far in the playoffs, so who gets the job done in the Final will likely swing things in their team’s favor.
11.51 5v5 goals saved above expected in wins for Stuart Skinner (and -4.97 in losses)
The play of Stuart Skinner has been a hot topic in these playoffs, as he played so terribly in the first two games of the first round against the Los Angeles Kings that he lost his job. He probably would still be sitting on the bench in the Stanley Cup Final if not for the fact that an injury to Calvin Pickard thrust Skinner back into the crease for Game 3 of the second round against the Vegas Golden Knights. After a hiccup in that game, Skinner has turned around his game and been a key to this Oilers team’s success.
Skinner and Pickard certainly have their differences in net. Pickard doesn’t have the strongest form but at the very least can consistently provide the Oilers with the replacement level goaltending they need to win. With Skinner, it’s a lot more volatile. At his best, he’s the kind of goalie that can carry you to a Stanley Cup. But at his worst, he’ll singlehandedly lose you some games or even a series.
That’s certainly been the case in these playoffs. In his six wins, he has 11.51 5v5 goals saved above expected and has stood on his head on some occasions to get the Oilers the win. But in his four losses, that drops to -4.97, and you can see when he’s off his game by how much he swims in the crease or or lets weak shots sneak through him.
Now, this is a very “no duh” stat to look at. Obviously goalies will generally play great in wins and play poorly in losses. But Skinner’s case is particularly volatile, and just showcases how important he will be to the Oilers’ success in this series. If he’s on his game, it might be a very easy win for Edmonton. If Florida manages to get him off that game and get in his head (or in the case of Sam Bennett’s elbow, at his head), then the Panthers may win back-to-back Cups.
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____