For Brock Nelson, Islanders can expect to get similar return as Elias Lindholm and Bo Horvat

Credit: Nov 19, 2024; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; New York Islanders center Brock Nelson (29) against the Calgary Flames during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images

We’re just over six weeks from the NHL’s March 7 trade deadline and we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day until Deadline Day.

Today we continue our player profile series with New York Islanders center Brock Nelson, who is the No. 1 ranked player on our Trade Targets board. Despite the fact Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello said a couple weeks back that it “wasn’t even a thought” as to whether he’d (uncharacteristically) sell at the deadline, it should be a no-brainer that even a career-long Islander like Nelson is on the move.

2024 NHL Trade Deadline Countdown: 46 days

BROCK NELSON
Center, New York Islanders
Shoots: Left
Age: 33
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 210 lbs
Cap Hit: $6 million
Term: Pending UFA
2024-25 Stats: 45 GP, 13 G, 15 A, 28 Pts, 19:10 TOI
Career Stats: 12th season (all NY Islanders), 885 GP, 288 G, 271 A, 559 Pts
Best Year: 2022-23, 82 GP, 36 G, 39 A, 75 Pts, plus-13, 18:26 TOI
Playoffs: 8 appearances, 6 rounds won, 78 GP, 27 G, 23 A, 50 Pts

Archetype and Ideal Role

Net-Front Scorer, 2nd Line Center

Without hesitation, Nelson is the top center available on the rental market in 2025. He is versatile, competitive and doesn’t have any obvious flaws or holes in his game as a complete player. Nelson can be a fixture on either power play unit in either the net-front spot or in the bumper position. He can also kill penalties utilizing his reach to eliminate passing lanes.

Scouting Report

Few centers across the league can get to the net and create an opportunity to score as consistently as Nelson. Over the last two seasons, according to NHL EDGE, Nelson is in the 95th percentile among all forwards in shots from the inner-slot (the highest danger) area. His shot speed is average, but it doesn’t need to be a rocket from that close.

One of the biggest attributes that stands out is Nelson under-handles the puck. He doesn’t have to think, he doesn’t take too long, he largely knows where it is going before he receives it – which speaks to his high Hockey IQ. The areas he gets to on the ice require immediate action, so he one-touches the puck or uses a sweeping move to beat the goalie. This also makes him a solid playmaker because he moves the puck quickly to teammates for quick strikes.

On the power play, Nelson can be effective in front of the net, but he also likes to slide goal line adjacent to open up the option. He is also well-suited to slide up to the bumper spot because of his ability to make quick touch plays.

Nelson uses his size, skating and sense to create turnovers. He is 12th among all centers in takeaways, and he ranks high in stick checks and blocked passes. In the faceoff dot, Nelson wins draws at a 52.2 percent clip in all-strengths across all locations. He is also durable. Two of the biggest abilities for a playoff addition is reliability and availability: Nelson has missed 10 total games over the last four seasons, which is hugely important for a deep playoff run, where he also has plenty of experience in the postseason with two conference final appearances.

Buyer Beware

One of the biggest questions facing Nelson at this deadline is: How to explain the dip in production so far this year? Teams are always wary of the age chart and it’s fair to wonder whether a 33-year-old like Nelson is in decline. He is eight points behind last year’s pace. Through 45 games last year, Nelson had 20 goals and 16 assists for 36 points in 45 games. This year through 45 games, Nelson has 13 goals and 15 assists for 28 points. It’s only an eight point difference – but his goal scoring is down 35 percent.

Here’s the interesting thing: We took a deep dive on both the numbers and watched full games of Nelson’s shifts and we don’t think his play has dropped off at all. The biggest difference is the Islanders’ power play is god awful under Patrick Roy, ranked 32nd in the league at an abysmal 11.8 percent. they would need to double their power play effort just to get to league average this season.

Nelson’s own stats have been a victim of that. He has one power play goal this year compared to six at this time last year, and two power play points compared to 13 at this juncture last year. Yikes.

Yes, Nelson isn’t hitting the net as much as last year from the inner-slot, down eight percentage points. But his speed is relatively consistent and he remains near the top of the league in shot attempts from the slot. In fact, Nelson skates better than you might think: his top speed is 74th percentile, his 20-22 mph bursts are in 90th percentile and his number of 18-20 mph bursts are in the 97th percentile. He isn’t overly physical (15th on the Islanders in hits, which is quite low for a 6-foot-4 center that plays more than 19 minutes a night). But all this adds up to an intelligent player with size who moves well and plays on a brutal power play.

Potential Suitors

Minnesota Wild: This makes too much sense. The Wild could use another higher-end center that they could confidently re-sign. Nelson is from Minnesota. And GM Bill Guerin obviously likes him, selecting him for 4 Nations.
Winnipeg Jets: The need is still there – the same need the Jets tried to fill with Sean Monahan last year. The tough part has been keeping deadline adds. Fun fact: Warroad, Minn., is closer to Winnipeg than St. Paul.
New Jersey Devils: Keep an eye on New Jersey trying to improve down the middle, an upgrade for Erik Haula. Nelson wouldn’t need to move from the NY/NJ metro area. He just might be a little higher-end than NJ is looking for.
Boston Bruins: Well, Nelson would definitely fulfill the Bruins’ biggest need. He is the premier rental center available. But are the Bruins going to be in the market for a rental? Or a more permanent fix?
Carolina Hurricanes: Could see the Canes as a tire kicker here. They aren’t keen on giving up first-round picks (didn’t do it for Jake Guentzel). Tough to see them splurging for Nelson, but he’d definitely make them better. The question is: How much better?

Comparable Trade Returns

Jan. 31, 2024
To Vancouver: Elias Lindholm
To Calgary: 2024 1st Round Pick (No. 28 overall: Matvei Gridin), 2024 4th Round Pick (No. 107 overall), Andrei Kuzmenko, Hunter Brzustewicz, Joni Jurmo

Jan. 30, 2023
To NY Islanders: Bo Horvat
To Vancouver: 2023 1st Round Pick (No. 17 overall: Axel Sandin-Pellika), Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty

The consensus based on recent market conditions is that the price is going to be high. The Canucks were involved in the last two premier rental centers to move on the market – trading one and acquiring another – and so that also means the Islanders already know the price. We’re looking at a first-round pick as the minimum starting price plus a couple lower-tier pieces, whether those be prospects or later-round picks.

Summary

This was an eye-opening exercise looking into Nelson’s game this season to show a player who has experienced a dip in production but not play. Nelson checks a lot of boxes for acquiring teams as a center with difference-maker capability in a very thin market.

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