Four surprise teams that are showing green flags to start the season

The early parts of the season always make it tough to get some analysis on teams, as small sample sizes lead to a plethora of chaotic results.

There’s rarely anything to take away from it that has ground to stand on, so you don’t want to talk about good starts without worrying about a team falling back to earth or talk about bad starts without worrying about them rebounding and making you look stupid.

But, there’s still some things that can be evaluated, especially if you know where to look. Much like how I took a look at some red flags from teams off to slow starts last week, this week I looked at teams that were surprisingly showing some green flags to start the year. Not all of them are off to incredible starts, but there’s still some interesting takeaways based on what’s happened so far. That can easily change as well, but for now, let’s dive in and have some fun.

Arizona Coyotes

Change seemed to be in the air in Arizona this summer, and I’m not referring to the looming decision about where they’ll be playing in the next few years. No, for the first time in several seasons, the Coyotes appeared to be aiming to ice a competitive roster, or at the very least, they didn’t want to be a contract graveyard for other teams. They bought out some of their bad contracts like Zack Kassian and Patrick Nemeth, traded for Sean Durzi, signed Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba and Alex Kerfoot in free agency, and had promising young prospect Logan Cooley poised to join the team. Maybe playoff contention wasn’t on the menu, but they certainly weren’t expected to be a lottery contender.

So far, playoff contention doesn’t look like it should be out of the question. A 3-3-0 record doesn’t exactly scream contender, but there’s other aspects of the Coyotes’ game that create some early intrigue. The Coyotes currently sit in ninth with a 5v5 expected goal share of 53.86%, including a strong performance of 62.43% against the New Jersey Devils in their first game of the season. If there’s one concern, it’s that they’ve lost the expected goal battle in four of their six games and have their numbers propped up by two really strong games, and a 94.74% 5v5 team save percentage will drop down eventually, but it’s solid results so far, especially as their top six starts to become more dynamic.

Boston Bruins

It feels weird including the Bruins up here because of how successful they were last season, but considering the offseason they had, it shouldn’t be a complete surprise either. They had their forward group completely gutted, with both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring, and having to move on from Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, Tyler Bertuzzi, Garnett Hathaway and Tomas Nosek, and were also due for some regression from their record-setting season, as they did overperform their underlying numbers a bit, no matter how good they were last year. Nobody expected them to repeat their success, but even a playoff spot seemed somewhat questionable.

But, so far that hasn’t slowed them down, as the Bruins have sprung out to a 6-0-1 start to the season. Sure, a 95.61% team save percentage at 5v5 plays a big role in not losing any games in regulation, and that will certainly regress unless the Bruins plan on breaking their own regular season points record, but they’ve managed to keep the ship steady to start the season. Their defense has been solid with the 10th-ranked 5v5 expected goals against per 60 of 2.45, but what’s more shocking has been the fact that their offense is third in the league in 5v5 expected goals for with 3.05 despite all the losses they suffered up front in the offseason. They likely won’t be this hot all season, but I’d definitely say a playoff spot looks much more manageable for this new-look Bruins team.

Nashville Predators

The Predators saw a significant culture change over the summer as Barry Trotz took over the reigns of the franchise, and many weren’t sure what it meant for the team this season. They moved on from centers Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, and brought in some veterans like Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyquist and Luke Schenn to change up the vibes of the team, but it was still unclear as to whether that would do anything to change up the Predators consistent state of mediocrity – for better or worse.

So far, it’s been for the better. Sure, a 3-4-0 record doesn’t jump off the page as a great start, but what’s been more interesting is what the Predators have done under the hood, as they currently find themselves in first place in the league in 5v5 expected goal share with 58.65%. That’s due to consistently good play at both ends of the ice, as they have the eighth-highest 5v5 expected goals for per 60 at 2.93, and the fewest 5v5 expected goals against per 60 at 2.07. They likely don’t have the skill on their roster to consistently convert those chances, as seen by them having the eighth-lowest 5v5 shooting percentage at 6.55%, but it’s definitely a good step in the right direction.

Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers were one of the teams that many pegged to be near the bottom of the standings for a majority of the season. Not only did new general manager Daniel Briere seem very intent on going the patient approach with the team, but you don’t move on from Ivan Provorov, Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk and Tony DeAngelo without being intent on being bad for a bit. Sure, John Tortorella would rather face God and walk backwards into hell than allow a team of his to intentionally suck, but this roster could only carry out his strive for effort to a certain extent.

So, it’s certainly a surprise to see that the Flyers are not only off to a solid start with a 4-2-1 record and sitting in second in the Metropolitan Division, but there’s actually some legitimacy to it. They currently sit fourth in the NHL with a 5v5 expected goal share of 56.33%, and that comes from excellent play at both ends of the ice, with the fourth-best 5v5 expected goals for per 60 with 3.05 and the eighth-best 5v5 expected goals against per 60 with 2.36. Some of that has to do with the return of Sean Couturier, who’s just like his old self and is helping the Flyers dominate play with a 52.21% 5v5 expected goal share when he’s on the ice, but the Flyers actually do better without him on the ice, with 56.16% of the expected goals in that scenario.

Whether the players have just found a new gear or Tortorella is implementing an excellent system for this Flyers’ team, who knows, but it’s working so far. The roster may not have the skill to continue to win games, but if they keep driving play like this, they certainly won’t be an easy out.

All rate and share statistics courtesy of Evolving Hockey.

All relative stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.