Gear: Why the Panthers could keep Lord Stanley in a Sunshine State of Mind
For two straight years, Lord Stanley has taken up residence in the state of Florida, enjoying warm tropical breezes and income tax-free living.
The Tampa Bay Lightning defended their Stanley Cup last year in convincing fashion and with the midway point of the season now upon us, they are looking to become the first team to three-peat since the New York Islanders won four straight Cups in the early 1980s.
While the Lightning have shown no signs of faltering, the team that looks most capable of stopping their reign atop the NHL is none other than their neighbors to the south, the Florida Panthers.
There are other teams making a strong case for why they could win it all, but for my money, the Cup is staying put in the Sunshine State.
The Panthers sit atop the NHL standings with 63 points, tied with the Colorado Avalanche, who won their 17th straight home game in comeback fashion on Wednesday night without Nathan MacKinnon. The Lightning are a mere two points behind.
The similarities don’t end with their records, as either the Panthers or Lightning have held the Atlantic Division lead for 96 of the 106 days this season, including every day since mid-December.
Both Florida-based teams are led by a Vezina-caliber Russian-born goaltender, with the Lightning boasting 2019 Vezina and 2021 Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevsky, while the Panthers counter with the resurgent Sergei Bobrovsky, who won the award in 2017 and appears to have returned to form this year after a dip in play the past two seasons.
Each team also has a top, minute-eating defenseman drafted at the top of his draft class who can shut down opponents but also rack up points.
The Panthers’ Aaron Ekblad, the first overall pick in 2014, is having a career year and is one of the early candidates to claim the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman, the second overall pick in 2009, remains a dominant force and is a sure bet to become a Norris Trophy finalist for the sixth straight season.
The Panthers round out their top four defensemen (in terms of minutes per game) with a solid group that includes Mackenzie Weegar, Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling. The Lightning have an equally impressive corps behind Hedman, with Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev.
Both teams are also blessed with elite forward groups.
When healthy, the Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov is among the most dynamic players in the league, while the Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov can score at a point-per-game rate, while also being generally regarded as the league’s best defensive forward. They both possess sleight of hand at a level that may not have been seen since Pavel Datsyuk skated in the NHL.
Beyond Kucherov, the Lightning are a frightening lineup for opposing goaltenders, with Steven Stamkos on fire through the first half of the season (50 points through 42 games), playoff beast Brayden Point putting up his usual strong numbers (28 points in 29 games) and perennially-underrated Alex Killorn doing more than his part (39 points in 43 games).
Think that’s firepower?
The Panthers are averaging more than four goals per game. They lead the league with 175 goals scored and a net goal differential of plus-50. The Cats are on pace for 334 goals this season, which would set a record for goals scored in a single season by a team during the salary cap era – the most since the 319 scored by, you guessed it, the Lightning in 2018-19.
These cats play Sweetness after every goal they score. 🤜🤛 https://t.co/gssEZEfLRI
— Jimmy Eat World (@jimmyeatworld) January 26, 2022Jonathan Huberdeau is having arguably his finest season as a pro, scoring at a torrid clip of 1.35 points per game. That puts him on pace for 110 points through 82 games. (Our Mike McKenna recently mentioned Huberdeau as a sneaky Hart Trophy candidate.)
The Panthers have five players that have already posted 15 goals or more, including Barkov (18), Huberdeau (16), Sam Bennett (18), Anthony Duclair (18) and Carter Verhaeghe (15). Sam Reinhart isn’t far behind with 12 goals, to go with his 25 assists.
Ok, so both teams can score, but what about the depth required for a deep playoff run?
After their top-end offensive players, the Lightning keep coming at you with Anthony Cirelli, Ondrej Palat, the ageless Corey Perry, Ross Colton and Mathieu Joseph. Tampa Bay has remained dominant this year despite significant injury time to Kucherov and Point. They have also been able to weather the offseason losses of important contributors Tyler Johnson (traded to Chicago), Blake Coleman (signed as an unrestricted free agent by Calgary), Yanni Gourde (selected by Seattle in the expansion draft) and Barclay Goodrow (traded to the New York Rangers).
That speaks to the evolution of players like Colton and Joseph, but also to the additional depth offered by free agent signing Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, as well as rookies Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk, who have again demonstrated the great pipeline that the Lightning have in the Syracuse Crunch, their AHL affiliate, and the winning experience that rubbed off on them as Black Aces during Tampa Bay’s playoff runs.
The Panthers, for their part, have built their depth with a mixture of grizzled vets and youth. Patric Hornqvist and Frank Vatrano are players that have always known how to find the back of the net. And let’s not forget Joe Thornton, the NHL’s 12th all-time leading scorer, who at 42 years young has been a healthy scratch at times this season, but will no doubt provide solid playoff leadership for the Panthers the way Perry did for Dallas, Montreal and now Tampa.
Meanwhile, young contributors like second-year center Eetu Luostarinen, fellow Finn Anton Lundell and Owen Tippett, continue to emerge and contribute to making Florida dangerous on all four forward lines.
What about team toughness? Both teams tick that box nicely. Florida attempted to overpower Tampa Bay last year in their first-round Battle of Florida matchup, but the Lightning were comfortable playing that style, too.
Tampa Bay is generally a team with a lot of size and strength, but players like Perry, Pat Maroon and Zach Bogosian bring skill with a side of snarl. The Panthers have plenty of ill-tempered characters on their team as well. You don’t want to get on the bad side of Radko Gudas or Ryan Lomberg, and players like Bennett and Weegar are not afraid to mix it up.
The bottom line is that both of these Atlantic Division teams have all of the ingredients necessary to win, and more similarities than differences. The Lightning clearly have the edge in playoff pedigree and experience, but the Panthers look like a team on a mission this season.
The only unfortunate part is we won’t be able to see these division rivals in the Stanley Cup Final, though it is possible to get a rematch of the 1996 Final between the Avs and Panthers repeat 26 years later.
Lord Stanley better bring some sunblock. One may have to go through the other to get there, but there is a good chance that a Florida-based team emerges from the East to hoist the Cup in June.
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Chris Gear joined Daily Faceoff in Jan. 2022 after a 12-year run with the Vancouver Canucks, most recently as the club’s Assistant General Manager and Chief Legal Officer. Before migrating over to the hockey operations department, where his responsibilities included contract negotiations, CBA compliance, assisting with roster and salary cap management and governance for the AHL franchise, Gear was the Canucks’ vice president and general counsel.
Click here to read Gear’s other Daily Faceoff stories.