The good, the bad and the ugly of a new era for the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are about to enter unfamiliar territory.
After many summers of fans crying out for change, the Leafs have finally made a significant alteration to their core by moving on from Mitch Marner, even if it wasn’t necessarily their choice. It’s the first time the core has seen a change since adding John Tavares to the fold in 2018. In fact, this October will be the first time in Auston Matthews’ nine-year NHL career that Marner won’t be an option for him as a winger.
But what does this new era hold for the Leafs? The truth is that there isn’t a precise answer at this point in time. There were a lot of ways this summer could have gone for them, and even as most of their work appears to be done, there are still many possibilities for how the upcoming season unfolds.
There’s a lot of positive takeaways from the Leafs’ offseason in spite of the one glaring negative, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty to be worried about – and it’s not just tied to Marner’s departure. With that, let’s dive into the good, the bad and the ugly of the current state of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Good
I don’t think I’m alone in saying this offseason had the potential to go very poorly. The Marner situation meant the Leafs were never going to win this offseason, but whether they lost the offseason was still in their control. The way the end of the season unfolded and the possible moves that looked to be available had all the makings for a repeat of their infamous 2013 offseason.
After the back-to-back 6-1 losses on home ice to the Florida Panthers, including one in another Game 7 loss, the stage was already set. It was easy to see the Leafs falling into the trap of throwing money and/or prospects and draft picks at another David Clarkson or Dave Bolland, the type of player who would have “the style of play to win in the playoffs” or the “leadership and maturity to finally help the core turn a new leaf.” In fact, those types of players looked to be available from the Panthers themselves, as Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand were set to hit the free agent market and likely get overpaid.
Once you also consider general manager Brad Treliving’s resume in free agency, the concern only grew. While his tendency to throw a bit too much money and term at players has mostly been toward the fringes of the lineup like Ryan Reaves, David Kampf or Max Domi, his time with the Calgary Flames made things a bit more alarming. Whether it was Troy Brouwer, James Neal or even Jonathan Huberdeau, Treliving had occasionally made some questionable choices when cap space was available to him, especially after a disappointing end to a season.
But, that didn’t happen. In fact, the Leafs did the smartest thing they could have this summer, and that was keep their chequebook closed on July 1. Outside of the extensions to John Tavares and Matthew Knies well before Canada Day, which are both excellent-value deals, the Leafs kept the contract signings on the smaller side. In a weak free agent market, the smartest thing for the Leafs to do was use their cap space diligently, especially as next year’s class looks to be much stronger chance for Toronto to fill the Marner-sized hole in their forward group.
Now, some of that was due to the fact that a lot of the possibilities for reckless spending didn’t even hit the market. The Panthers saved the Leafs from themselves by bringing back Bennett and Marchand on deals much closer to the value that they currently bring. While both players are excellent and have shown significant value in the playoffs, a $10 million cap hit for Bennett or a four-year term at $8-9 million for Marchand had a strong chance of aging poorly.
Instead, the Leafs not only were smart with their cap space in free agency, they used it as an asset when they had very few prospects and draft picks in their cupboard to make trades, and took on players that other teams needed to sell off for cap space at a discounted price.
In order for the Vegas Golden Knights to afford Mitch Marner, the Leafs used it as an opportunity to potentially plug the hole at third-line center that’s existed since Nazem Kadri left by taking on Nicolas Roy’s contract. The Utah Mammoth needed some cap space, so the Leafs struck a deal and landed a playmaking winger that could act as dollar-store Marner in Matias Maccelli for only a third-round pick. The Vancouver Canucks were in the same spot, so the Leafs used it as a chance to bring in a Sam Bennett-type in Dakota Joshua for just a fourth-round pick. Even in dumping Reaves’ contract to the San Jose Sharks, Toronto managed to land a fringe NHL defenseman who could improve outside of San Jose’s system in Henry Thrun.
Are the Leafs a better team as they stand right now than when they were last season with Marner? Probably not. But they could have also been a lot worse this season while also damaging their long-term window. It’s very clear that the current additions are a short-term stopgap as the Leafs look for the right long-term solution, and by simply avoiding any long-term headaches this summer, they’ve done the most that they could have done. When the biggest criticisms you can give Toronto is that they gave Steven Lorentz a bit too much term for a depth guy or that Joshua’s contract is a bit too expensive for the player that he was last season, it wasn’t as bad of a summer as it could have been.
The Bad
There is still one glaring issue in that last paragraph, despite all the good that the Leafs have done: this team is still worse than last year’s, and they will miss Marner. Say what you will about his performance in the playoffs, but at his best, Marner had the hockey IQ, playmaking ability, and overall offensive talent similar to wingers like Patrick Kane, while also having the defensive mind and stick work of wingers like Mark Stone, and that is something the Leafs will miss.
Since Marner entered the league in 2016-17, his 141.4 goals above replacement is behind only Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. That is an elite list of players to be a part of, and that is a lot of value that the Leafs are losing for almost nothing in return. Even if you want to account for all the players the Leafs acquired in place of Marner this summer, the combined GAR of 17 from Maccelli, Roy, Joshua, Thrun and Michael Pezzetta over the past three years is a far cry from #16 (or I guess #93 now)’s 55.5 GAR.
Marner’s two-way game on the wing makes him nearly impossible to replace, especially as a player in his prime. Sure, you can plug in a Maccelli or a Domi on Matthews’ wing to replace the offense, but that Matthews-Marner duo was also essential to the Leafs’ shutdown game, and it will be harder to trust Maccelli or Domi in that role. Even Nylander alongside Matthews wouldn’t provide that same value.
Again, say what you will about Marner’s play in the postseason, but you can’t deny that the Leafs will be worse, and his departure will have negative effects on the team, even if it’s not noticeable at first. His absence will be felt in the regular season, which means that the Leafs won’t be a strong contender for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. That in turn either puts them back into the bloodbath that is the second or third seed and a likely matchup with the Florida Panthers or the Tampa Bay Lightning, or it knocks them down even further to the wild card race and gives them a tougher matchup, once again giving them the same playoff fate.
That’s also not even considering the fact that this Leafs team was likely going to get worse even with Marner. What got lost in the Leafs winning their first Atlantic Division title in this current alignment was that this version of the Leafs was actually the worst version of the team that we’ve seen in the Matthews era, at least according to their underlying numbers. Their 49.39% 5v5 expected goal share marked the only time since 2016 that they’ve finished below 50%, and while their 2.53 5v5 xG against per 60 minutes was only tied for the third-worst rate in that stretch, their 2.47 5v5 xG for per 60 was easily their worst.
If not for elite goaltending from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll and a 9.42 shooting percentage from their offense, the Leafs would have likely been a fringe playoff team last season. While their play in the regular season gave them the luxury of facing a weaker Ottawa Senators team in the first round, and that luck did continue through the first seven periods of their second round series with the Panthers, it shouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Leafs flame out at the end of that series the way they did.
Combine a regressing offense and goaltending on a Leafs team that struggled to generate chances and was mediocre at preventing them with the fact that one of their two best players at both offense and defense is now gone without an adequate replacement, and there are certainly red flags waving as Toronto enters the 2025-26 season. While we still need to wait and see how this new team looks on the ice, on paper it seems that not only will a division title or a Stanley Cup seem overly optimistic for this group, the Leafs may be lucky to get into the playoffs.
The Ugly
Now, I talk about the Leafs like Marner’s departure is significant because he’s the best player on the team. But Matthews still exists. At his best, he’s not just the Leafs’ best player, he’s capable of challenging McDavid as the best player in the league. Matthews is more than capable of carrying the load without Marner, even if it will be a bit more challenging.
The problem is that Matthews hasn’t consistently been his best in recent seasons. Yes, one of those seasons does include his best one, that being his 69-goal, 107-point season in 2023-24. But that season is sandwiched in between his two most disappointing seasons. 2022-23 saw him produce just 40 goals and 85 points, while 2024-25 was even worse at 33 and 78, albeit both seeing Matthews dealing with injuries. A healthy Matthews will keep the Leafs’ contention window open, but if he continues to be injured, there’s a lot more concerns.
And then there’s the even bigger problem: we still don’t exactly know how healthy Matthews will be in 2025-26. Last season saw his play sharply decline due to a lingering issue that kept him in and out of the lineup, and it was clear that as the playoffs drew on, the Leafs really needed Matthews at his peak to get past the Panthers. While he’s said that he expects to be 100% healthy for the regular season, a lot of the language used about his injury was left open-ended, with some talk that this injury may just be something that he has to deal with for the rest of his career.
If Matthews’ injury does wind up being one that plagues him going forward, it can’t be understated how screwed the Leafs will be, especially without Marner. This isn’t just a slight setback, this slams their Stanley Cup contention window shut. Matthews at 70-80% is still a top-end player, but it means that we’re looking at more of a “just elite” level player that produces above a point-per-game with elite defensive results, like Anze Kopitar or Patrice Bergeron, as opposed to a franchise-level talent that combines those Kopitar/Bergeron elements with a shot that rivals Alex Ovechkin’s.
Now, Kopitar and Bergeron did go on to win Cups, but that was at the age of 24 and 26 for Kopitar and 26 for Bergeron. Matthews is now 27 and won’t have the same Cup-contending roster without Marner this season that those two players had. The Leafs are also the ninth-oldest, second-biggest and the heaviest team in the league entering this season, which isn’t exactly a roster makeup that translates to long-term success. Oh, and they lack the prospects and draft picks to either develop that team around him or use as assets for players to build that roster.
The Leafs’ Cup window was already a bit shaky with a healthy Matthews and Marner on the team. If Matthews’ injury plagues him long-term, and they aren’t able to find a legitimate replacement for Marner down the road, this team will struggle to hit the highs they did in the first half of the 2020s. Nylander and Tavares are still elite talents, and Knies has a lot of promise, but they can’t carry the load without Marner or a healthy Matthews.
Now, it’s just as likely that Matthews is healthy again next season, and he returns to the form of a top-five player and keeps the Leafs in contention. But if he isn’t, it could get even uglier in the center of the hockey universe.
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