Grading the Jakob Chychrun trade: Senators get their guy, Coyotes snag a top-tier pick

Mike Gould
Mike Gould
Grading the Jakob Chychrun trade: Senators get their guy, Coyotes snag a top-tier pick
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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It finally happened. Jakob Chychrun is no longer a member of the Arizona Coyotes.

The Ottawa Senators acquired the 24-year-old defenseman on Wednesday afternoon, finally getting a deal done to put an end to Arizona’s “trade-related reasons” asset protection maneuver. It’s a massive trade with wide-ranging ramifications for both sides — and, from this vantage point, no clear winner (yet).

Here’s what we know. Ottawa badly needed another defenseman, preferably a right-handed one. Chychrun shoots left but played a little bit on the right side in the desert. His family also has a cottage in the Ottawa region and he’ll undoubtedly be happy to join a team with playoff aspirations, delicate as they may be.

Arizona is still very much searching for legitimacy as an NHL franchise. On the surface, this deal won’t do much to change perceptions. Chychrun was the Coyotes’ top defenseman and it’ll be extremely difficult to replace him, although the 2023 first-round pick might help accomplish just that.

This is one of those deals that will be dissected and beaten to death for years to come. For our purposes, there’s no sense in waiting. Let’s grade this thing!

OTTAWA SENATORS

Receive:

D Jakob Chychrun, 24 – $4.6 million cap hit through 2024-25

The Senators got their guy. Chychrun is an extremely talented player with two more years on the books after this one at an extremely reasonable $4.6 million cap hit.

Sure, Chychrun can become an unrestricted free agent in a little over two years’ time, but his family has strong ties to the Ottawa area, he’s young enough to be a long-term piece, and he directly addresses a huge area of need for this Senators team. Check, check, check. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Chychrun re-up with the Sens on a long-term deal when the time comes.

With Chychrun, Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Artem Zub, the Senators have what appears to be a legitimate top four on defense for the first time in a long while — although, it’s worth noting, only one of those guys (Zub) shoots right. Will Chychrun shift over to the right side, as he infrequently did in the desert? Is Sanderson destined for the third pair? Sens head coach D.J. Smith better have the answers to those questions.

Here’s the thing, though: Ottawa probably isn’t making the playoffs this year, not even after back-to-back blowout wins over the Detroit Red Wings earlier this week. They’re still five points back of the Pittsburgh Penguins without any games in hand. Ask the oddsmakers and they’ll probably put the Sens’ playoff chances this year at around 10-20%, if not lower. Chychrun will help them plenty, but May hockey in Ottawa remains more of a memory than a reality. This is a team that hasn’t qualified for the postseason since the days of Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, and Clarke MacArthur — until they actually get there again, it’ll always be a big maybe. Their schedule down the stretch won’t do them any favors, either.

But if Chychrun is a long-term piece for the Sens, why are this year’s playoffs relevant? Because Ottawa’s performance this season directly influences the value they’ll forfeit to acquire him. Whereas everybody knew the value of the pick the Sens gave up for Alex DeBrincat last summer, nobody is quite sure where Ottawa’s 2023 selection will land. It’s top-5 protected, which helps somewhat, but this deal suddenly looks a whole lot different if the Coyotes are walking up to the podium with a pick in the 10–12 range after another spring without playoff hockey at the Canadian Tire Centre. The 2023 NHL Draft is widely considered to be one of the best in a generation.

Nevertheless, draft picks are mystery boxes. A player like Chychrun is very much a real thing, and the Senators should be a much better team with him in the fold. If he stays healthy and helps the Sens finally take that step everyone has been anticipating, it’ll have been worth it. If not … July 1, 2025 could be a very interesting date in Ottawa.

It’s a big swing by Sens GM Pierre Dorion. Now his team needs to start scoring some runs.

Grade: A

ARIZONA COYOTES

Receive:

2023 first-round pick (top-5 protected)
2024 second-round pick (conditional)
2026 second-round pick

“They waited 18 months for that!?”

Here’s the thing: Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong was firm on his price, as we all heard ad nauseam throughout what felt like the neverending Chychrun saga. He wanted two firsts and a second (or equivalent prospects), and he’d be more than willing to wait for a team to meet his asking price.

But in the end, Armstrong didn’t get two firsts and a second, nor did he get equivalent prospects. Instead, the Coyotes received the Senators’ 2023 first-round pick (with minimal protection) and two seconds. From an optics perspective … not great.

The Coyotes may well have overplayed their hand. You’d think teams would have been falling over themselves to offer prime assets for a productive 24-year-old defenseman with term on his deal. Instead, it seems the bidding war Armstrong wanted to generate never materialized — and, in the end, he took the best offer he could get.

All that being said, it’s worth considering exactly which teams would have been best suited to meet the Coyotes’ original asking price. Ottawa? Probably not — they haven’t made the playoffs since 2017. You can be sure memories of the Matt Duchene misfire still percolate regularly inside Dorion’s head.

If the Coyotes really wanted to get two first-round picks from a Chychrun buyer, they probably would’ve had to settle for a 2023 pick in the 25–32 range from a bona fide contender and a future pick in a similar spot. Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong said as much to PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan on Wednesday morning, indicating as many as eight teams were in the mix and some offered multiple firsts.

“More important in this deal is an opportunity to get a pick somewhere between 6 & 18. Those are hard to get to in the draft so that has a lot of value for us,” Armstrong said. “We had a couple of deals where there were two firsts but they were really late firsts. This has the possibility of being a pretty good pick.”

Bingo. The Coyotes are already in the running to land Regina Pats phenom Connor Bedard with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. This deal gives them the opportunity to land a second high-end prospect in this year’s bursting first round — and, should Ottawa win the lottery and trigger the top-5 protection, the Coyotes will instead receive the Senators’ 2024 first-round pick, free from any protections whatsoever.

We’re less than four years removed from the Senators giving up the Bowen Byram pick in a similar deal for a win-now piece. Of course, this iteration of the Senators looks to be much stronger: Cody Ceci and Mark Borowiecki aren’t playing top-four minutes anymore. While the Sens might not make the playoffs this year, they’re also highly unlikely to bottom out (again) next year if the Coyotes wind up with their unprotected 2024 first.

Yes, Arizona only got one first-round pick after shopping Chychrun for more than a year. No doubt, it’s concerning that Chychrun even wanted out in the first place. The Coyotes need to start building something worthwhile before long if they want their next wave of potential star-level talents — Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, and the like — to stick around.

But after this trade, with a little bit of luck, the Coyotes could walk into the 2023 NHL Draft with two picks in the top 10. For a team desperately trying to build a strong asset base, that’s a huge deal.

Grade: B

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