Greeley: Projecting Team Canada’s Beijing 2022 Olympic Roster – Version 3
It’s been one month since releasing Round 2 of our projected roster for Team Canada in the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. Many questions still remain, including whether or not NHL players will even be going to China.
The NHL has until Jan. 10 to back out of Beijing without financial penalty.
In the meantime, the work continues for Team Canada GM Doug Armstrong and his Hockey Canada collaborative team. For our projection, the last month has provided additional viewings, injury updates, data and even hints from Armstrong himself to make some minor alterations as we inch closer to our final picks next month.
One week ago, Armstrong gave a friendly reminder that he’s not building a roster for a skills competition.
”You have to continually reinforce that you’re building a team that can compete in an NHL-style game, not a team that can compete in an All-Star Game,” Armstrong said. “There’s going to be bodychecking, there’s going to be tight, defensive play. There’s going to be things that you want to make sure you have players that can close games out, that can kill penalties, that can do all the things that make you successful.”
Armed with that reminder from Armstrong, we’ve made a few revisions to our roster:
Forwards
Out: Mitch Marner
In: Tom Wilson
It may surprise some that Wilson is averaging 0.92 points per game this season, compared to Marner’s 0.88 points per game. There is no doubting Marner’s talent. But I believe Wilson has a set of intangibles that no other Canadian forward can add: an element of physicality that will be unmatched in the Olympics. Opposing countries will cringe when they hear Wilson named added to Team Canada and that is exactly one of the reasons I believe he will be added.
The Olympics will be played on regulation-size NHL ice surfaces. However, Team Canada will have to make sure that Wilson understands the severity of the “contact to the head” rules that are governed differently in international play under IIHF rules.
Armstrong dropped one other hint in a radio interview that would support swapping out Marner for Wilson. He said Team Canada will lean heavily on players who have performed well in pressure situations. Wilson is battle tested. He was an integral part of the Capitals’ run to the Stanley Cup in 2018 with 15 points in 21 playoff games. Leafs Nation has watched Marner grip his stick tightly in multiple first-round exits.
“How do you perform in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and if your team doesn’t get there how do you perform in the World Championship?,” Armstrong told Sportsnet. “You want to see how guys perform when the light is the brightest. If you haven’t played important games in 4-5 years, it’s a leap of faith that you’re going to have the ability to get it done in those games.”
Forwards:
1. Sidney Crosby*
2. Connor McDavid*
3. Nathan MacKinnon
4. Patrice Bergeron
5. Brad Marchand
6. Mark Stone
7. Sean Couturier
8. Ryan O’Reilly
9. Brayden Point (Out 4-6 weeks)
10. Steven Stamkos
11. John Tavares
12. Jonathan Huberdeau
13. Tom Wilson
14. Zach Hyman
Last Cuts: Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Mathew Barzal, Taylor Hall.
* denotes one of first three players formally selected
Defense
Out: Dougie Hamilton
In: Morgan Rielly
This was a tough decision. But Rielly has been added to the roster because his overall game provides a little more versatility than Hamilton’s. On special teams, I see Rielly being able to play on a second PK unit, whereas Hamilton most likely would not. Because Cale Makar has been absolutely dominant, I am not sure Hamilton’s offense is as needed with Makar playing at such an elite level.
I see the blue line as a position where coach Jon Cooper may have a significant impact as he presents his ideal pairings with Doug Armstrong.
Our biggest concern over the last month was when would Drew Doughty return and would he be healthy enough to join team Canada. Those questions were answered this week as Doughty returned slightly ahead of schedule and did not miss a beat, playing 27:55 against the Freeway Faceoff rival Anaheim Ducks.
Defense:
1. RD Alex Pietrangelo*
2. RD Cale Makar
3. RD Drew Doughty
4. LD Shea Theodore
5. RD Aaron Ekblad
6. LD Darnell Nurse
7. LD Josh Morrissey
8. LD Morgan Rielly
Last Cuts: Dougie Hamilton, Thomas Chabot, Brent Burns.
Goaltending
Six goaltenders were reportedly named to Team Canada’s initial “long list” that cannot be altered: Carey Price, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, Mackenzie Blackwood, Jordan Binnington and Carter Hart.
The most important position remains the most difficult position to predict and also happens to be Team Canada’s weakest position.
“Right now, yeah, it’s a situation where we’re certainly not as concrete in my opinion as Russia would be, for example,” Armstrong said. “There are certain countries that are very concrete in their goaltending, and we’re not one of them.”
From a Team Canada standpoint, Armstrong said this week the “runway is getting shorter” with Price. Canadiens coach Dominique Ducharme said it’s unlikely Price will be back before Christmas. Though many close to Price believe he’d like to play for Team Canada and may only need a few games in January to show he is up to the task.
For now, we will not project Price on the roster, though we’ll continue to monitor the situation closely.
With Fleury’s resurgence in Chicago, we’re swapping out Mackenzie Blackwood for the three-time Stanley Cup winner.
1. Marc-Andre Fleury
2. Darcy Kuemper
3. Jordan Binnington
Last Cuts: Carey Price, Mackenzie Blackwood, Carter Hart.
Potential Line Combinations
Hyman – McDavid – Bergeron
Marchand – Crosby – MacKinnon
O’Reilly – Point – Stone
Huberdeau – Couturier – Wilson
Extras: Tavares / Stamkos
Theodore – Pietrangelo
Nurse – Doughty
Morrissey – Makar
Extras: Ekblad / Rielly
Fleury
Backup: Kuemper
Third: Binnington
Next Team Canada Projection: Christmas Week
Next Team USA Projection: Friday, Dec. 10
Previous Team Canada Projections: Version 1 in October, Version 2 in November
Steve Greeley joined Daily Faceoff in Oct. 2021 after spending 12-plus seasons in an NHL front office as scout, director of player personnel and management. He was most recently assistant GM of the Buffalo Sabres from 2017-20.